MLS Stats 12/8-12/14/08

Pendings Rise, Listings Fall Modestly


PENDING SALES: 6,419 ( +212 from last week)

Active W/Contingency: 996 ( +23 from last week)

CLOSED 12/1-12/8/08 943 ( -23 from last week)

ACTIVE Listings: 54,667 ( -177 from last week)

CLOSED MTD (12/14/08) 1,937

CLOSED YTD: 56,064

SINGLE FAMILY STATS

PENDING SALES: 5,796 ( +169 from last week)

Active W/Contingency: 911 ( +25 from last week)

CLOSED: 860 ( +0 from last week)

ACTIVE Listings: 44,944 ( -133 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 1,746

CLOSED YTD: 49,243

The number of pending home sales increased this past week a little unexpectedly, I suppose, and the number of active listings fell, as they would normally do, but also a little unexpectedly given the circumstances in our market. The number of weekly sales would suggest that we will top 4400 sales this month; we are slightly ahead of the pace of last month; we were at about 1817 at the same date last month, and we finished with 4449 sales. It is not a great month for sales, but it does seem that we are at the baseline, as we have weathered some horrific news over the last several months, and the resale market has not deteriorated past this point. *NEWS FLASH* The fed lowered rates again, basically by 3/4 point, and those of you with HELOCS will greatly appreciate this. An expert was saying that mortgage rates are going to trace this downward, so we may expect rates to be in the 4%'s for homebuyers. This is bound to bring some traffic into banks, as this has created a historic opportunity for inexpensive housing.

I am expecting sales to finish around 4600-4800 for the month of December; it is by no means a great month, but far better than last year, and not a bad baseline for going into the new year. January will be similarly soft, but we will start seeing an uptick in pendings, building towards a good strong March. March, for a lot of you residential agents, might start to feel like a normal market. There will still be far too many listings, but you will see a good number of closings, and buying activity.

I won't be publishing next week, but I want to wish all of you a very happy holiday season.


chris just

just land consultants

MLS Stats 12/1-12/7/08

INVENTORY RISES; PENDINGS FLAT
November closings revised upward to 4449 from 4300

PENDINGS: 6207 ( +32 from last week)

AWC: 973 ( +17 from last week)

CLOSED: 12/1-12/7 966 ( -265 from last week)

ACTIVE: 54,844 ( +311 from last week)

CLOSED MTD (12/7/08) 966


SINGLE FAMILY

PENDING: 5,627 (+29 from last week)

AWC: 886 ( +9 from last week)

CLOSED 12/1/-12/7 860 ( -269 from last week)

ACTIVE: 45,077 ( +260 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 860


December is starting off just about how expected-the activity over the next two months is likely to be soft. The interest rate reduction will likely bring some more people into the market, but this will be offset by the seasonal slowdown. Factors would predict that even though there is normally a drop off in listings this time of year, it will not happens as many of the listings going on the market are bank-driven, and thus may not be affected by the holiday season. Now there was some national action by banks to not start proceedings during the next few months, but I don't know that it will have a large effect on how many listings go up. Some of those listings will have been in the pipeline for months. Our biggest problem is still inventory, and we are going to suffer through that for a while. The thing about a lot of this inventory is, many homebuyers are not interested in buying a foreclosure that amounts to a fix up property, regardless the price; they are looking for a home, not a project. These properties can almost be put in a submarket, and cannot be fully classified as inventory. They are investor inventory, as many of homebuyers will not even look at them in their current condition. I am not trying to put a sunny face on the inventory numbers, but there is a dichotomy in the prices and inventory of ready to live homes and these bank-controlled properties. They have a reduced value for a reason, and their effect on pricing is staggering to the public perception of the housing market.

An article today in the republic reporting a strong dip in foreclosures in the valley may be a signal that the market is righting itself finally. I wouldn't go so far as saying that, but if lenders are working with even some owners to stay in their homes, that is that much less inventory on a bloated market. It may also cause some listings to be taken off the market, as people realize that they won't need to sell their home. The bottom line is that its good news, as couched in government intervention as it may be.

I don't expect 5000 sales in December; the first week was not great, and the end of the month bracketed by two holidays, is not going to be strong finisher. If we do significantly better than November's 4449 (revised from 4300), it will be a good showing. If listings can fall somewhere around 54000 by the end of the month, we can at least start the new year with some momentum. As I said, the bank-controlled listings may prevent a decline that would normally be a no-brainer, but we could get lucky with the fannie and freddie imposed moratorium on new foreclosures.

Expect about 4500-4700 closings in December.

ARMLS STATS 11/24-11/30/08

NOVEMBER SALES WEAK; ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL
Pendings fall slightly, but maintain a much stronger level than 07.

PENDING SALES: 6175 ( -193 from last week)

AWC: 956 (-53 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,231 ( +135 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 54,533 ( -723 from last week)

CLOSED: November '08 4,300


SINGLE FAMILY STATS

PENDING SALES: 5598 ( -181 from last week)

AWC: 877 ( -38 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,129 ( +133 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 44,817 ( -601 from last week)

CLOSED: NOV. '08 3,943



Most of the stats for November are in-there are a few straggling closings being posted, but really not enough to change the general picture. The month finished very poorly, and because of that, we didn't reach close to the 5,000 mark. It was a holiday week to be sure, and this month had a lot of weekend days which hurts it, but this was likely the result of the credit crisis that hit in September and softened up the sales that would occur through october and november. The pendings haven't gone real soft; they are at a better level than last year, (pending sales last year this week were 3834) and that is a sign that we will continue to see sales at this level for the next few months. About the third week of January 2008, we started to see an uptick in new contracts, (AWC). This continued to build through February, and we started to see the resulting sales increase by March. I do expect a similar pattern for '09, and for January and February sales to be better than Jan or February 2008. January '08 posted only 2800 or so, and february about 3400...at current levels, we should blow right past that, and hopefully build on the pending numbers which will produce a very good march and april.

The listings number took a good hard fall this week-I think we are getting into that time of year where people don't put their homes up for sale unless absolutely necessary, and we might see inventory drop through the end of the year. It will pick up in January however, so that is but a short term bright spot.

If we can build on present pending numbers into 5 digit territory in March, we might see some real inventory reduction through the middle part of the year. I would also guess that we might see some homes come off the market as banks work to refinance some parties, or the government takes over asset-backed mortgages and recalibrates them. I would make the prediction that we will see sales in the 6000+ range for March and posssibly continue that way for several months. Given where we currently are, it wouldn't be unlikely that will happen. Mortgage rates are incredibly low, and the government finally decided to buy up some of the toxic assets after doling out money to their banker buddies first. This is going to go a long way toward unclogging homelending, and hopefully we will see that kick in come March.

We are still slugging through some tough times in the housing industry right now, as generally, new homes are also very soft, and have been since late September. Inventory in that area is cut way back, however, so while it is painful for the thinned out homebuilders who I have great empathy for, they are not doing any great damage to overall home market inventory. They have slimmed inventory substantially, and have gone to building a more affordable home which are going to sell better once there is some confidence.

ARMLS STATS 11/17-11/23/08

LISTINGS CONTINUE SHARP INCREASE
PENDINGS STABLE, NOV. SALES LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF 5,000


PENDING SALES: 6368 ( +4 from last week)

AWC: 1009 ( -14 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1096 ( +64 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 55,256 ( +304 from last week)

Closed MTD: (through 11/23/08) 3021


Single Family Stats

PENDING SALES: 5,779 ( +15 from last week)

AWC: 915 ( -22 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 996 ( +63 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 45,418 ( +185 from last week)

MTD CLOSINGS: 2,771

We have settled into the 4th quarter slowdown of activity, without a doubt. November 2008 is tough as we had 10 weekend days and 2 holidays out of 30, so closings will suffer in such a month. We are not going to get to 5000 sales this month by anything that I can see. We have only punched over 2000 sales in the last week once or maybe a few times this year, and I don't see why it would happen in November, where there are relatively fewer pending sales.

I don't think there is any doubt we are seeing a large number of foreclosure listings coming on the market now, as inventory continues to grow at a brisk pace. There was some expectation not too many months ago that we could fall under 50000 listings by the end of the year, but that notion has been turned on its head, despite fairly solid sales figures since then. There is just a lot of inventory to feed into the market, and we are heading into the teeth of the slowest part of the year, so I expect that inventory will not start shrinking until March. New listings tend to slow down in December, but as so many of these listings are not homeowners but lender owned, I think we may not see the traditional drop. We'll see.

On a positive note, we are likely to see sales exceed last November, and there seems to be continuing stability in the number of pendings, even though we are in a slower quarter. The drop off was not precipitous, and if we can stay around that 5000 sales per month through the end of the year and into january, we might be looking at a much brighter spring sales period.

ARMLS STATS 11/10-11/16/08

Pending Sales: 6,364 ( +10 from last week)

AWC: 1,023 ( -8 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 1,032 ( +254 from last week)

Active Listings: 54,952 ( +558 from last week)

MTD Closings: 1894

Single Family Stats

Pending Sales: 5,764 ( +1 from last week)

AWC: 937

Closed Escrow: 933 (+216 from last week)

Active Listings: 45233 (+474 from last week)


Not a great week, and sales are slowing down due to either the holidays or the seasonal effects. Inventory is up sharply. There might have been a big influx of foreclosure listings this week; that's a pretty big jump in listings. The numbers point to over 4000 this month, which is okay, but I don't know that we will reach 5000. Mortgage applications were apparently up last week, and I read a report that said sales in october were over 8000+; I am not buying it, unless that includes the foreclosure sales. Its definitely not cutting into inventory, whatever it is.

We are probably at best going to maintain our current doldrums until we get our spring sales starting to show up in February.

ARMLS STATS 11/3-11/9/08

I am going to do an abbreviated version today, as some other issues are taking my attention on this Holiday.


PENDING SALES: 6,353 (+268 from last week)

AWC: 1,031 (+45 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 778 ( -831 from last week)

Month To Date: 815

Active Listings: 54,394 ( +542 from last week)



Single Family Stats

PENDING: 5,763 ( +223 from last week)

AWC : 943 ( +45 from last week)

CLOSED: 718 ( -758 from last week)

Active Listings: 44,759 ( +325 from last week)

The stats are typical second week; not many closings, a slight uptick in pendings, and unfortunately a fairly sharp jump in listings. It would be nice to see that number start falling, but it seems that we still have a long way to go. There are very few closings so far this month, but 4 out of the nine days were weekends and followed the the very end of a month, so not that surprising. Hopefully that number will catch up by the end of the month. We are looking for 5,000 realistic closings this month, and 5500 if you are optimistic. Those would both hold serve for a traditionally slow month. If december and january will hold up their end, it could set us up for a very strong March, when sales typically recover.

Right now, it is hard to see how the financial collapse is really affecting sales; they are about what I would have expected following the July-September numbers-slightly below those prime month sales figures. Does that mean that we were in a bit of housing recovery and then got slammed by the turmoil? I don't really see that. The pendings have been stable, so maybe we are still at a realistic bottom for our market. If horrible news doesn't really affect us, then that tells me we are at the bottom, and that we can expect to see improvement in the next six months. I don't think before the end of the year, but I do think by March, and possibly February, we are going to see some portent of things to come. Last February had some steep rises in pending sales which took some time to manifest, but we will be looking very closely at those numbers starting in late January even.

October Sales Finish Strong, Respectable 5,293

October Resales finished the last week with good pace, bringing the total to 5,293. That is far off the pace of September, but given the financial crisis, and typical seasonal weakness, I was pleasantly surprised. I had expected we could actually fall short of the 5,000 sales, so crossing 5,000 substantially is good news. Extrapolated over a year, that would be 63,516 sales-not a bad year, but large numbers of listings color it poorly.

Single Family Resales in October: 4,790

Here are the weekly figures through November 2nd:


Pending Sales: 6,085 ( -430 from last week)

AWC: 986 ( -61 from last week)

Closed Escrows (10/27-11/2) 1,609 ( +643 from last week)

Year to Date: 49,620

Active Listings: 53,852 ( -291 from last week)

Single Family Stats


Pending Sales: 5,540 (-384 from last week)

AWC: 898 ( -60 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 1,476 ( +604 from last week)

Active Listings: 44,354 ( -226 from last week)


I am not going to go over this too much, but the last week of October was good enough to put us over 5,000 sales for the week. It is better than I expected, but not up to the September tally, which was nearly a 1000 more. Not a bad month, considering the credit crisis that hit us in late september. This level through the end of the year would be acceptable, and we could look for an upturn in March as seasonal figures improve.

There is not too much to glean from the pendings and AWC- they are down as normal after the last week of the month. Listings fell slightly but no where near I would like them to fall. It might help that Chase bank is suspending foreclosures temporarily and attempting workouts with many people-that might mean less homes going on the market. Statistically it might not be visible, but if more of the banks do that, it could cut inventory substantially.

I will comment more next week.

chris

MLS Stats 10/20-10/26/08

Sales Fall, Pendings Rise Slightly, New Contracts Flat
Inventory Continues to Climb


Pending Sales: 6,515 ( +52 from last week)

Active w/Contingency: 1,047 ( +1 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 966 ( -75 from last week)

Active Listings: 54,143 ( +142 from last week)

Closed through 10/26/08 3,661

SINGLE FAMILY STATS

Pending Sales: 5,924 ( +63 from last week)

AWC 958 ( +3 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 872 ( -67 from last week)

Active: 44,580 ( +166 from last week)

Closed MTD : 3,302


The past week continues to show the difficulty we are facing in the housing market, locally and nationally. Our statistics are better than the first half of the year, but they are not showing improvement over the last several months, and this month could take a dramatic downturn from September. There are some seasonal considerations, of course, but if we were in a full recovery, it wouldn't matter, as the fact is, as good as September was, it would not be considered a great month in a decent market. For sales to reach even 5,000 in October, we will have to have a very strong last week. It is possible, of course, but given the relatively weak weekly showings in October, if we do reach 5000 sales, it won't be by much. We are looking for month to month growth, and that is not the case.

The other twist in the knot is that active listings continue to rise. I really thought with our sustained sales growth over the last half year, we would start cutting into inventory sharply by now, but instead, after making some early gains, we are moving closer to the high water marks than away from them. I don't know if its because banks are flooding the market with inventory, or if it is a case of better market news, giving people more hope they can put the house on the market now. I think it is likely the former.

The good news is nationally that sales rose both in new homes and in resales according to the most recent statistics. This was of course accompanied by the normal gloomy reporting of home prices falling.

We knew that prices are still going to recede for a while, as there is simply a lot of inventory driving the market. There is also the concept that people are going to buy lower priced homes, as they are not being driven by the "irrational exuberance" of the "McMansion" days. Simply put, buyers are looking for Basic Black. A good many of the homes being sold now are bank repos and short sales, and many of the homes they got back were for entry level buyers, so the homes that come on the market were originally from the lower end of the spectrum. This drags on the average price. Banks are trying to unload homes, even if its at a loss, so there is much downward pressure on pricing. It is a great time to be a bargain hunter. There is lots to choose from, at relative to the last 3 years, at very good prices.

That brings me back to my chief concern, which is of course, the inventory. Builders have brought their inventory down to manageable levels, but the glut of resales is our biggest obstacle right now. We are not going the right way with that number. Mccain's plan to bailout homeowners is not likely to be put in place, although it seems to me that before we spent the hundreds of billions bailing out banks, the taxpayers probably should have been helped in some way. I think I heard a stat yesterday that said that ridiculous program they came up with to help homeowners had all of 79 homeowners actually go through with it, while they were expecting as many as 400,000. Not a well designed plan if homeowners won't use it. I think it included giving up half your equity when you do finally sell the house in the future.

Still, we have to hope that the recent sales numbers like September will hold up. I have been perhaps a little too negative about October, but I had hoped for some build in numbers and reduction in inventory to cement the idea that we are on our way to recovery. Instead, we got treading water numbers. November through January are not typically very good months anyway, so don't expect to see any substantial good news about our market until February. That is why I had higher hopes for October-we are going to go through a seasonal decline, and it would have been nice to be able to point to October as a great "normal" month. If we can tread at the 5000 sales per month through November to January, I will actually consider that to be pretty good, however. Less homes tend to come on the market in November and December, so its possible if we have decent sales, we may also cut the inventory back in those months.

MLS STATS 10/13-10/19/08

PENDING ARE FLAT; ACTIVES RISING STEADILY
SALES NOT KEEPING PACE




PENDING SALES: 6,463 ( -107 from last week)

AWC: 1,046 ( + 11 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,041 (+157 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 54,001 ( +532 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: (10/19) 2,644

SINGLE FAMILY STATS


PENDING SALES: 5,861 ( -86 from last week)

AWC: 955 ( +1 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 939 ( +144 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 44,414 ( +437 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 2,388


This week probably denotes that we are going to see the effects of the financial crisis hit us in the fourth quarter. The numbers are not promising. Sales are up a bit over last week, but they are still far too low to signal a good number at the end of the month. What's most troubling is the number of Listings-inventory keeps climbing, and as it took almost the whole year to make the progress of reducing listings by a few thousand, we have given all that ground back. We are going into the worst 4 months of sales during the year, and inventory is already rising. There is no doubt September was the best month we have had in a long time, but it appears the financial shock has caused more people to put their homes on the market, and given that this is not the time of year we absorb inventory, our recovery might stall for the next quarter. I think starting in February, we will start to see some good sales again, but we are going dormant for the next several months in all likelihood. People's confidence is shaken, and while we seem to have weathered it to some degree, and there also appears to be a plan in place by the Feds to bolster home prices as a key part of their rescue plan, it is going to take several months before we see that effect. In the meantime, inventory looks like it might continue to grow, and sales will dip seasonally, as they usually do. This is not going to help prices.

We are not on a good pace to hit 5500 sales in October; last month at the same date, we had 3,298 closed escrows already, compared to 2644 this month. That is not a good indicator. There might be a blowout at the end of the month, but that would be required to just get to 5000 sales. That is not an entirely bad number, given the last two years, we are adding inventory at a greater pace than sales, so it is indicating a lack of progress.

The good news is that September leading indicators were actually up, and gas prices are sliding rapidly, which may do more for consumer confidence than anything else. I heard Fargo ND, had a price of $2.38 this week! Our prices will fall similarly once we get to the winter blend of gas. This will help the consumer almost immediately, more so than any stimulus check.

We also have the "election effect" which seems to always slow down growth and optimism prior to choosing a president. After its over, America will get back to business with a renewed sense of optimism, no matter who wins-at least we hope so.

MLS STATS 10/6-10/12/08

LISTINGS RISE SHARPLY, SALES DROP


PENDING: 6570 ( +110 from last week)

AWC: 1,035 ( +29 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 884 ( -907 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 53,469 ( +599 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 1,533


SINGLE FAMILY STATS

PENDING: 5,947 ( +103 from last week)

AWC: 954 ( +22 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 43,977 ( +536 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 795 ( -825 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 1,379


This past week was a terrible one for confidence in the global financial system. The stock market was rocked, and confidence was just hammered, and it seems like maybe it took a toll on housing. The amount of closings shriveled, and the number of homes on the market shot up unexpectedly. The pending number is decent, but not really strong, and I have to think that the financial scare is going to affect October and November's housing numbers now. It does appear more people are putting homes on the market, as either this financial scare affected them, or that the increasing amount of sales makes people think that it is feasible to get a home on the market again.

Other people are more optimistic about October, although I am not really sure what they are basing that on. This is an article from The Republic about investors chasing lower priced houses. I don't think that October will be a banner month for sales; I am hoping that it will hold up to September and August, or even somewhat close to that. This past week was way below what a weekly closed figure has been lately, and it makes it tough to recover over the next few weeks to get to even 5000 sales, a number that is far below what the last several have been. Granted, people had a lot of other things on their mind this past week, but the numbers should really have been better than this.

I don't even want to get into the Active listings...they have been climbing, despite our increasing sales, and I don't think there is any denying that fact. While our new construction inventory has now fallen below its historical high water mark, resales are still clogging up the system, and until that number starts to fall we will not reach a pricing bottom. We have reached a sales bottom, I think, a year ago almost, but pricing pressure is still downward, as we can't seem to get past this inventory point.

Real Estate News Headlines

There are a couple of important headlines I thought relevant here.

Pending Homes Sales reached a yearly high in August......
-nothing we didn't know locally, but this bears out the stronger sales in September, at least. It also talks a bit about mortgage rates coming down as a result of the rush to US Treasuries. Its a simple breakdown, but actually helpful in explaining the situation. This is the article from CNBC

Mortgage applications rise....
-I don't know if these applications are getting approved, but it does show a certain segment of the population is interested in buying a home. This is a good indicator that we at least have a floor in the housing market. The prices have come down enough to bring people in to start the process, despite the horriffic news and daunting task of obtaining financing.

Feds Cut Rates 1/2 point
-This seems to have stabilized the market a bit for today, but it is not nearly as much as the street was clamoring for. It might be that it was enough though. I am not sure if continually cutting rates is the right way forward either. This one was necessary.

MLS STATS 9/29 to 10/5/08

PENDINGS DOWN, ACTIVES UP


Pending: 6,460 ( -555 from last week)

Active with Contingency: 1,006 ( -35 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 1,791 ( +234 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,870 ( +127 from last week)

Closed MTD (10.5.08): 615


SINGLE FAMILY STATS

PENDING: 5,844 ( -430 from last week)

AWC: 932 (N/A)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,620 ( +192 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 43,441 ( +186 from last week)

MTD CLOSINGS: 553


The beginning of the month was a short week, so not very much to glean from the activity either way. The closings include the end of the month, so they are artificially high. The disturbing trend to me is that despite the large amount of sales, the number of listings actually went up at the end of the month. Too many homes still on the market, and going on the market, and that is something that will put off a housing recovery. If we have blockbuster sales of 8,000 a month through the fall, which I don't see happening, 40K single family homes on the market would be okay. But there is nothing pointing in that direction, as I am sure most of you know.

September was a very good month, but we have now gotten into the heart of this credit crisis, and it is very difficult to say where things go from here. I will be watching the pendings next week, and seeing if that number rebounds, as well as the active with contingency. AWC's are already at their normal level, but if they increase a bit, that will be a good sign that there are still people out hunting for homes, despite the negative news. All I can say is that I hope that trend will continue.

September Resales Hit 2008 High

MLS Records 6,130 Sales in September!
Single Family Sales Totaled 5,559 of these sales
Single Family Inventory at lowest point this year-7.7 Month Supply
Builder Report shows inventory levels of spec homes have fallen to an important milestone.

September sales finished with a flourish, striking 6000 sales for only the second time this year. September beat July '08's tally of 6,033. September '08 bested September '07 6130 to 3377-almost doubling it!

Single family sales did double from last September in MLS- from 2,735 to 5,599 for this year.

Gross inventory numbers are not falling as much as sales are increasing, so that is a little disheartening, but we still have reached a low in inventory ratio. The single family ratio is actually a better number to watch, as the gross inventory, as I have mentioned before, includes condos, mobile homes, and even timeshares, including out of state timeshares, on occasion. The building industry is driven by single family homes, so in regards to the inventory levels, a 7.7 month supply is getting us a lot closer to where we need to be. We are getting close enough to market stabilization that you might see prices also stabilizing a bit. I recently saw a statistic that used 5 months supply as a pretty normal market, and we are getting a lot closer to that.

Overall, a very encouraging month of September. If we could have clipped a 1000 homes off the inventory number I would have been a lot happier, but the sales numbers tell the story-there is demand out there.

chris

MLS Stats 9/22-9/28/08

Weekly Sales Strong, Inventory Rises, Pendings Fall



PENDING SALES: 7014 ( -405 from last week)

Active W/ Contingency Contracts: 1041 (-19 from last week)

Closed Escrows (9.22- 9.28/08): 1,557 ( +76 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,743 ( +327 from last week)

Closed MTD through 9/22/08) 4,974

Single Family Stats

Pending: 6,274 ( -406 from last week)

Active Listings: 43,255 ( +271 from last week)

Closed 9.22-9.28: 1,428 ( +94 from last week)

Closed MTD (9/28) 4,517

We had a very nice week for sales again, and it is pointing to an excellent end of the month. We have an outside chance of this being the best month of the year, actually, but it would require a very strong last day of sales. My guess is that it will fall short, but the fact that we are talking about it is very encouraging.

What is less encouraging is the stubborn amount of listings. We really need to see that number start going down, and while I expect it to drop after the last day of the month, it has climbed back up to a big enough number that I don't expect to see it in the 50,000's this month; it may now not even reach back to the 51,000's. There is simply too much inventory.

Lest it be a problem with the overall inventory, including condos and the few timeshares, etc that show up in the bulk listings, the active listings for single family also remains high, and climbed significantly over the last two weeks. I do expect it to retrace at the end of the month, but the downward momentum seems to be gone. We have certainly come substantially off of our high inventory levels, but we seem to be bumping along here now. It is very important that we start showing some signs that the inventory is decreasing, or the price levels of homes will continue downward. If prices keep falling, then it chases buyers out of the market as they wait for the bottom.

I will try to do an update later in the week addressing the end of the month sales. I am really curious to see how this plays out today. It would be exceptional if we got to 6000 sales this month, but it would require a good day today.

chris

ARMLS STATS 9/15-21/08

Weekly Sales Up Sharply
Pending Sales Rise slightly, inventory too.
More properties sold already this month than all of Sept.'07!


Pending Sales: 7419 (+50 from last week)

Active W/Contingency: 1060 ( +12 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 1,481 (+443 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,416 (+198 from last week)

Closed Month to Date (9/21) 3,418


Single Family Stats

Pending Sales: 6,680 (+28 from last week)

Active Listings: 42,984 (178 from last week)

Closed: 1,334 (+381 from last week)

Closed Month to Date: 3,091

It was a very nice week for sales, and puts us in a position of easily making it to 5000 sales this month. Actually, were we to compare to our best month, July, in which we topped 6000 sales, we are ahead of that pace as of 9/21...on 7/21/08, we had 3,216, and and as of 9/21/08 we have 3418 for September. I don't think this will hold up; we are not likely to cross 6000 this month, but we are going to achieve a solid number for the month. Enough solid months in a row, means we have a positive trend. There are still too many listings, but as I have mentioned before, they tend to drop off at the end of the month when a great number of pendings disappear. I am not quite sure of the relationship there, but we may touch 50,xxx listings by the end of the month.

That said we still have six months to go at least of too much inventory. It doesn't necessarily mean falling prices however. We are seeing a move towards more purchasing, and that means that people are again finding what they consider to be good housing deals, and are pursuing them. We are still selling houses at a much faster rate than we were all last September and 4th Quarter, even with the mortgage difficulties, so I think that says something about the confidence in prices at these levels. We are poised on what could be a massive setback in the economy with this bailout business, but the bailouts, should they get done, should help the real estate industry.

The bottom line for us is we are having a good month of September, we did reach the number of sales of all last september already-, and the pendings point to a solid next couple of months, assuming there is no meltdown in the financial industry. With Fannie mae and freddie mac already addressed, home lending problems are not as likely, but a confidence crisis could still ruin this slow recovery. For right now, the numbers are to be cheered. It was a good week.

chris

MLS Stats 9/8-9/14/08

Sales Pick Up, Typical Mid-month week


PENDING SALES: 7,369 ( + 166 from last week)

AWC : 1,048 ( +35 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 1,038 ( +202 from last week)

Closed through 8/14/08 1,907

Active Listings: 52,218 ( +146 from last week)


SINGLE FAMILY STATS

PENDING SALES: 6,652 (+149 from last week)

Active listings: 42,806 (+101 from last week)

Closed: 953 ( +203 from last week)

Nothing exceptional to report about this week's numbers; it was a typical mid month week, showing decent sales numbers, an uptick in listings, and an uptick in pending sales. What I do like to see is that it appears that we may be holding on to the gains of summer, and September could be on par with August and July. That would be exceptional for our market locally, as it would then point to us having blown through what would be a seasonal downturn. This would show actual signs of returning strength, as this is not a good month at all last year.

At this same time last year, there were only 1,256 sales. The month finished with 3,377 total sales. I don't count this number so I can keep consistency, but including yesterday -midmonth- there are over 2300 sales already. We could almost blow past the entire spetember 07 tally by the 19th-not likely, but its close enough to make it interesting. Comparatively, we are going to do very well in September, however it shakes out. The pending numbers are also showing signs of continuing strength at the 5000-6000- sales level. I don't think we will reach 6000 sales a month any more this year, as we ar going into the slow 4th quarter, but I think it will be consistently decent numbers in the 5000+ per month from the way the numbers are shaping up. It will be interesting to see if the sales hold up, as if they do, we might get some exaggerated fall in active listings, as they don't come on the market as fast in 4th quarter either. Falling sharply into the 40K's in listings would be the most welcome outcome of this 4th quarter.

Now, that being said, it is yet to be determined how the Wall Street financial problems are going to shake out. It sounds like another rate cut is coming, but it appears we already had our big drop in interest rates last week with the rescue of Fannie and Freddie. I don't know what the additional cut will do for housing. I guess it might lower home equity line rates, but it seems to me that we would want to keep the pressure on the price of oil going down, and a rate cut doesn't help with that. Obviously oil falling to $92 a barrel is a welcome sign to most of us, but I wish that savings was being passed on to us. Gas prices have come down very slowly, as the refiners take their usual stance that they already paid for the oil they are refining, so it was done at at a higher price. Of course, they are quick to raise prices when oil is rising aren't they? People don't realize that lower gas prices is a huge stimulus check for most of us, and it will help in terms of housing sales and the overall economy.

MLS Stats 9/1-9/7

Pending Sales Rise Locally
Listings Rise a bit, Sales fall in first week


Pending Sales: 7,203 ( +479 from last week)

Active w/Contingency: 1,013 ( +72 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 836 ( -1287 from last week)

Closed MTD: 836

Active Listings: 52,072 ( +458 from last week)

Single Family Stats

Pendings: 6,503 ( +436 from last week)

Active: 42,705 ( +358 from last week)

Closed: 750 ( -1144 from last week)



This was a fairly normal first week of the month. A heavier dose of closings would have been nice, but the way that August finished on a weekend, and the first day being a holiday led to a slightly less robust number. The pending figures are back into good territory, crossing well into the 7000 range. The AWC figures are not a good gauge anymore, as it doesn't seem to be tracking well with the previous system's AWC, even though the rest of the numbers, like pendings and ultimately closings, are fairly similar. I will keep using it, and it may redefine itself. It doesn't look good if you have been watching the statistics for the past year though, and I guess that is what bothers me.

I can't help but touch on the Bailout of Fannie/Freddie. A lot of people may not like this, but it is going to help the housing industry. I have already seen a half point drop in mortgage rates in some areas, according to one of the business channels this morning. Banks will also be more inclined to lend, as they now have a guaranteed market should they wish to sell the note. I don't know how quick it will take hold or what effect it might have; perhaps it will be relatively minor. It should bring some people back into the market for homes, and as we are locally going into our worst part of the year next month, the effect might be diluted as us just maintaining a solid but not noticeable increase in sales over last year. If we maintain our current rate of sales and inventory drawdown, we are still a good year from recovery. If we have a 10% increase in those stats, we could be back to a manageable inventory in as little as 6 months. There is no perfect formula though, as inventory draw down has happened in fits and spurts. We reached a recorded high of 56109 in February, and have slowly come off that figure. Even though we had increasing sales, we also had a lot of inventory go on the market, so it has taken 7 months to draw down about 4000 units. Increased sales will push that down quicker, but the fourth quarter is the least likely time we will see it happen significantly. Given that fact, I am still estimating a close to a year before we drop down to 40-45K listings. Fourth Quarter and early first quarter are not big movers, but I do suspect next march will be a very decent month for us. The time in between? Who knows, but I suspect it will not be as good as August of '08, but much better than last years figures.

STATS 8/25-8/31/08 5,843 CLOSED AUGUST!

AUGUST WEEKLY FINISH: 2000+ CLOSED!
ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL...Fewest number of Active in 2008...


PENDING SALES: 6,724 ( -531 from last week)

ACTIVE WITH CONTINGENCY: 941 ( -150 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROW: 2,123 ( +1,009 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 5,843

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 51,614 ( -794 from last week)

Single Family Closings: 1,894 ( + 904 from last week)

August Stats


AUGUST CLOSED ESCROWS: 5,843 (Aug '07- 4,307)


Single Family Quick Stats

SINGLE FAMILY CLOSED August: 5,237 (Aug '07-3,544)

Single Family Pendings: 6,067

Single Family Listings: 42,347 ( -608 from last week)


The month of August finished up with an exceptional flourish, showing us it is possible to close 2000 escrows in one week again-wasn't sure if that possible given the last year! The number is down slightly from July, but certainly a lot better than I had forecast. I didn't see 2000+ closings happening in the last week, but here we are.

The 5843 was our second best month this year behind July's 6,033. Remember these are all MLS sales, and while their are some preforeclosure and short sales, these are legit sales, not bids on the court house steps. These are realtor transacted sales, and it means someone is buying. A lot of positives can be taken from this month. I am feeling a lot better at our chances of a turnaround in the next six months.

Perhaps even more exciting to me is that we are approaching that magical number of 50,000 listings on the MLS. The numbers are definitely not peeling away as fast we would like, but we are within earshot of that mostly symbolic fence, and I am looking forward to slipping beneath it at some point. It could take several more months, but it is getting closer. The single family listings have slipped as well, and we are at about 8.08 months supply of listings, according to the latest figures. Its not ideal, but its easy to see that a drop to 40,000 of SFD listings will put us at about 6+ months of supply, a far more manageable figure of homes for sale than what we have experienced. We should see some influx of first time buyers as well, as the tax incentives and govt bailout tools will start having an effect toward the 4th quarter, and into the first half of next year. I am not going to be overly optimistic by predicting any "boomlet", but it should guarantee some strength in the housing sector for the short term. If we can continue to shave listings, and continue to show sales strength, things will get back to equilibrium. We are probablt not going to go back to a less than three month supply of housing on the market, but I think if we can get to a factor of 5- 35000 SFD listings, and selling 7000 SFD a month, for example- we will have likely seen the end of downward pricing pressure. As it is, we are still a ways off from that, but there are many signs of optimism to be gleaned here. It certainly appears that last summer was way worse than now, and we are bouncing along now above that by a decent, but not flashy, margin.

MLS STATS 8/18-8/24

Weekly Sales Down, August to be lower than July Sales
Pending Sales Climbing Again, Active listings falling slightly


Pending Sales: 7,255 ( +221 from last week)

AWC: 1,091 ( +10 from last week)

Closed Escrows (as of 8/24) 1,114 ( -142 from last week)

Closed MTD (8/24) 3,685 (3,801 as of July 24, '08)

Active Listings: 52,408 ( -98 from last week)


SINGLE FAMILY QUICK STATS

Pending: 6,512 ( +206 form last week)

Closed Escrows: 990 (-150 from last week)

Closed MTD: 3,308

Active: 42,955 ( -78 from last week)


Just a few quick thoughts about this week's stats. Sales should end up the month okay, but are going to be less than July. That is somewhat negative news, but that is seasonal adjustment components as well. We should end up in the 5,000's somewhere; not great but better than last August by a long way. (August 07- 4,307 Closed) This is encouraging that our bottom locally may have happened last summer.

Pending Sales have rebounded a bit, after struggling near the 7000 level for a while; hopefully this will continue. I have little faith in the AWC numbers; I don't think agents are entering them in the same manner as in the previous system, so that statistic as a measuring device may be a casualty of the new MLS system. ARMLS already knows my thoughts about this new system and how little additional utility we get out of it for a ridiculous bump in fees while we are in a soft market, but most of you aren't interested in that.

We are running slightly behind July 08, figures, intimating that are sales will fall short of last month. Barring some unforeseen sales surge, I think that will hold up and we will fall short of July.

Actives are slipping a bit, and its possible we could see it fall into the 51K's at the end of August. For this number to really fall, it will require a big jump in sales, which is not likely to happen in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is not traditionally a strong home sales quarter in Arizona, so we may have to wait until next year for something that looks like a recovery. A consistent drop in inventory would be the goal for the end of the year. The actual sales numbers will be better than last year, but they will likely be lackluster. If we were to fall into the high 40K's in overall listings, and in to the high 30k's for single family listings, I think we could look on that as success going into the new year.

I should also mention the national housing news, as it has been in the media this week. Resales climbed 3.1% in July nationally, a very nice increase that I was expecting based on our strong local performance. It is being spun badly in the news, with the authors focusing on falling prices. I have addressed this before, but I would much rather see falling prices than no sales. There was a report on Fox business channel yesterday in chicago about a formerly nice home that couldn't be sold for $119K, and because it didn't sell, thieves stripped it of all saleable materials-wiring, pipes, appliances, etc. The house is now for sale for $11K. It is ruined. We don't encounter that as much here because our market at least has some forward progression. I am thankful for that. The falling prices are distressing certainly, and sometimes devastating for the individual, but for the market as a whole, it is adapting here, and while we may see some falling prices still, our market is getting healthier. The price drops were inevitable in some submarkets, but we are selling more homes than we were before, so that means more people believe in the market than they did a year ago at this time.

The other news is that new homes sales numbers were also up nationally, in a sign that there is some pent-up demand among those buyers who were shut out in the 2005 spike. There are some exceptional deals in new homes now, rates are low, and I think people are finally realizing it. The tax credit of $7500 is only going to help first time homebuyer sales in the near future, and we may experience a mini-spike in entry home markets in the next two quarters, although I am skeptical that it is enough to move the market substantially.

Builder inventory in the valley has been falling for months, and most are running pretty lean. They are not big contributors to the glut of homes right now, but they are sitting on a wealth of lots that they would like to build on. I think some more trimming in resale inventory is needed before builders start recovering now. I had always been of the belief that builders would recover first, but I think the high price of gasoline has prevented this from happening. Cheap, not just reasonable, but flat out low cost new housing exists on the fringes of Phoenix in Maricopa, especially, but the cost of driving for many people cancels out the bargain these homes provide. New homes starting in the $90k's in Maricopa is just flat out ridiculous, but there has not been a huge sales trend with these homes. It probably doesn't help that financing is tougher, but these events have conspired to blunt the impact of these low priced homes in the recovery effort.

My impression is that we are still six months away from the market looking healthy enough to call a recovery underway, but we are locally at least moving in the right direction.

ARMLS DATA 8/11-8/17

Weekly Sales Up, Single family making up large part of sales
Inventory slips slightly



Pending Sales: 7,034 ( +16 from Last Week)

Active W/ Contingency 1,081 ( -44 from Last Week)

Closed Escrows: 1,256 (+248 from Last Week)

Closed MTD 8/17/08 2,568

Active Listings: 52,506 (-153 from last week)


Single Family Quick Stats


Pending Sales: 6,306 ( +24 from last week)

AWC 1,003 ( N/A)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,140 ( N/A)

CLOSED MTD: 2,312

Active SFD: 43,033 ( -87 from last week)


Weekly sales were strong again; August is setting up to be a solid, but not spectacular month. Should beat last years, but maybe not July's sales. It seems as far as pendings go, they are going to hover around 7,000; not their peak of the summer, but not too bad either. Inventory is still way to high, but single family sales are making up a high percentage of total sales, and that is a good sign. That is just over 8 months of single family inventory, going by July sales. 5-6 months is not a seller's market, but it would be considered equilbrium in many markets. Not here, traditionally, but in many markets.

I don't think that we can look at AWC numbers in the same light as in the old MLS system; I don't think the stat contains the same data, so we will just have to adjust our thinking about it over time. It appears to run lower than under the marketlinx system.

This is a middle week of the month, which doesn't really tell us alot, except that we have had consistent weekly sales so far this month. The month sets up where we lose the last two days of the month to the weekend, so it might affect overall sales this month negatively. I am optimistically hoping for 5500 sales, if the trending of the last few months can be believed.

Homes Sales on the Rise in Pinal County, as prices fall

Another sign the market is working; it may not be to everyone's advantage, but I am encouraged that the market is turning around when you see increasing home sales, despite the challenges being faced by buyers, specifically in borrowing. This article in the Arizona Republic details encouraging signs about housing in Pinal County.

MLS STATS 8/4 through 8/10/08

Sorry about missing Tuesday; I had some work to do out of town and it couldn't be helped.


Pending Sales: 7018 ( +400 from last week)

Active with Contingency 1125 ( Last week n/a-Not sure this is valid stat)

Closed Escrows: 1008 ( -1015 from last week)

Closed Month To Date: 1300

Active Listings: 52,659 ( +88 from last week)





SINGLE FAMILY QUICK STATS


Pending Sales: 6,282 ( Last week-N/A)

Active Listings: 43,120 (+53 from last week)

Closed MTD: 1,167


A solid, if unspectacular week. Our pendings are rebuilding after the strong end of July, but the active listings are not falling. I don't trust these stats implicitly; it seems that active still contain AWC as well, even though they are supposed to be seperated in the stats. I don't know for sure, as the only time we get drops in Actives are at the end of the month when there is a huge drop in pendings; I think it may be that some agents classify the AWC as pendings and therefore they go straight from AWC to closed instead of going through pendings. I don't really know, but I am looking for a solution as to why that is.

I am encouraged to see that a large share of closings are still single family homes; if we could pare that number down, at the same time sales rises, we will get back to a market equilbirium much sooner. I think we may not have as many sales in August as July, however. The pendings don't really point that way, as forward looking activity has slowed slightly. It could be because the new MLS system and agents unfamiliarity with it, but it looks like pendings are off their peak, as are AWC.

There was a good article in the AZ Republic concerning some positive signs in the local housing market. You can read it here. Foreclosures may be flattening out. Good article.

I am going to be running late on the stats Today...

I won't be putting up stats until this evening, as I am engaged in some work away from the office today. I will get the stats out as soon as I am able to.

chris just

just land consultants

JULY SALES IN, INVENTORY SLOW TO FALL

July Sales TOP June-Blows away last July!

These are numbers extracted from the NEW MLS system, which I am not 100% sure of its accuracy yet, but the numbers I am seeing are not inherently unbelievable. The pendings are low, but we did have a big last week of July. I am not sure that all agents have quite figured out the system yet, and that can delay entry into the system of certain statistics. I do think they are pretty much in line with where they should be. The Active with Contingency stat is not working on the new system. They have three different categories of "AWC", but all three total 267, so either agents don't know how to enter it yet, or it just does not function the same way as the old system, and we won't be using it. Either way, the 267 is not accurate, so I am not putting it in.


Pending Sales: 6,618 ( -692 from last week)

Active With Contingency: N/A ( Last Week, 1,407)

Closed 7.28.08-8.3.08: 2,023 ( +846 from last week)

Closed Month to Date: 293

Active Listings: 52,571* ( -283 from last week)

SINGLE FAMILY STATS

Single Family Closed: 1,806 ( +786 from last week)

Single Family MTD: 268

Active Listings: 43,067 ( -244 from last week)


JULY STATS

JULY CLOSED ESCROWS: 6,033 June 08 ( 5,763)
July 07 ( 4683)

Single Family Homes: 5,355 June 08 (5065)
July 07 (3834)

Using the current month stats: there is a 8.04 month supply of SFD.

There was a very good end of July that I didn't really see coming. The numbers really blew past projections, if they are accurate. I don't have any reason to doubt them, other than we haven't seen 6,000 closings in a month in a while, and that we have a new stats system. Great to see month over month performance increases. I don't think August will top July however, but this is a very good month worth noting.

As you can see, the numbers show we are obviously in much better shape than we were last july, when we were simply getting battered by the credit crunch and the falling expectations of the market. The fact that we did better than June of 08 is what really impressed me.

What I also like is that such a large proportion of these sales are single family homes. As most of you agents who read this are concerned with that, that is a very good sign for you.

*I will express doubt in other statistics on here, and that is for active listings. I have a feeling that the number, compared to the system we used to use, might be lower, as the AWC statististics must be showing up in active somewhere. That would inflate the number of active listings, and they really should have fallen a lot more given our big week. If 10 day old+ contracts are not being broken out from active by agents because they can't, or because the system doesn't account for them, then this would explain why we didn't drop into the 51K listings this month. I am not sure of this, but it doesn't really seem possible that we sold as many homes as we did in the last week, and only dropped a few hundred homes from inventory. Other months in which this happened, with less closings, I might add, we dropped 1000+ listings. I can't point out directly where this discrepancy is, so we will have to watch.

Overall, a surprisingly good week, and a very positive start pointing to a recovery in our housing market. We have had four such months of improving numbers, and while I think this might be the best month we have this year, we can have some very real optimism that the market is a lot healthier in the latter half of 2008 than it was at the same time last year. I don't know how this will affect prices yet; economics would say prices may continue to fall, and I think that the price pressure is surely downward or sideways as opposed to upward, but I think that the rate of fall is slowing to a stop at the very least, as sales increase. There are still probably 10,000 too many listings on the market right now, and the foreclosure sales that don't show up here siphon off demand from investors, so we still have a ways to go to a equalized market. I am optimistic this week, however, that we are going in the right direction.

NEW MLS SYSTEM, MLS STATS March

ARMLS CHANGES OVER DATA SYSTEM,

I am going to attempt the use of the new data system, so thoughtfully paid for by the members of MLS. They are charging us a boatload more, but I don't see the increased benefits at this point. I guess if you are selling houses it makes sense, some of these additional features make sense but I don't see the benefit at this point.

I don't know how the stats are going to transition; I am not completely familiar with the new system yet, as yesterday was the first day I looked at it. It may be that in order to keep statistics consistent, I may have to change the day I do this, or change the weekly tabulation date; I had been using monday to sunday, but I will have to see if that is possible.


Pending Sales: 7,310 ( -33 from last week)

Active W/Contingency: 1,407 ( -50 from last week)

Closed Escrow 7.21-7.27.08 1,177 ( -150 from last week)

Closed Month to Date (7.27.08) 4,215

Active Listings: 52,854 ( + 394 from last week)

Single Family Closed 7.21.-7.28 1,038 ( -145 from last week)

Single Family MTD 3,738

Single Family Active 43,311 ( +345 from last week)


The statistics seem to be fairly accurate, although I can just imagine some agents out there who haven't got the system figured out and so haven't entered pendings or closings. Its usually that way when a system changes. The numbers are fairly accurate, although I do think that the sales are a little low, and we may see that catch up by the end of the week as agents pick up the system and get current stats in. The historical stats are of course, unaffected.

We are behind last month's pace at the same date, which I expected, but we are ahead of last July's pace at the same date 3,850). We can probably expect to top 5,000 sales in the month, but will fall short of June's 5700 or so closings. Year over year improvement for the same date is what we are looking for, as seasonal variations now apply. 5000 isn't great, but it does show that properties are moving, despite the mortgage issues. We are going to see some benefit from the support of Fannie mae and freddie mac, and for those people who wish to take advantage of the $7500 tax credit for buying a new home between 08 and 09. If oil continues to fall, and optimism increases, I think we will find that homebuyers in this market are going to realize that buying a home is okay again. We won't have the greedy buying of 2005, and likely won't again for a generation, so don't expect to see those numbers again for a while. We will go back to being a moderately priced market for a buyer willing to live on the fringe of town, and have a brisk rate of sales for those who price decently.

I hadn't mentioned about the active listings yet. They have been a quirky number this month, but still haven't really made a move very far up or down, despite signalling they would. As I look back, it seems that we do at this time each month have short term build up of actives, as the pending sales are still included somehow, and we will drain it down following the heavy closings that occur at the end of the month. We will know next week if we shaved any volume off the listings. It doesn't look like we will get to 51000 this month, however. I think we could say we were healthy at 40000 listings, but it would be nice to be lower than that, so it looks to me that we still have a good year of either downward or drifting pricing pressures on values.

I may start adding some more useful stats like the average prices of homes sold, but I have to get a little more familiar with the system. I am not sure they had that loaded yet, as I kept drawing zeros in the stats when I looked into it.

I think this will still end up being a positive month for sales; it is not the breakout we would all like to see, but I don't think all the catalysts are there for that to happen yet. The housing bill will help, and some more positive economic news will help as well.

Housing News, Opinions

The housing news that came out today smashed the financial optimism on Wall Street. It doesn't look good nationally, but opinions differ around the financial world exactly how bad these numbers are. If you read my blog you know what the ARMLS numbers were in June. They were better than last June, and they were better than May. July won't be better than June, I don't think, but it will be better than July 07. That is improvement. Here is another interesting note from Jim Kramer of CNBC. He was not exactly an advocate of housing earlier this year. Not all people are looking at housing like the pariah anymore. There is a backstop with the housing bill that was passed, and there is even a decent tax credit for first time homebuyers of $7500.

Again, our market is a lot better than other markets, such as many in California, and we should consider ourselves to be in a market that is likely to recover quickly. Once we are able to shave 10K to 15K listings off our inventory, prices are going to firm up. With rates starting to rise, fence sitters are going to start getting nervous and will know that avoiding interest rates over 7% are better than the few thousands they think they may save by waiting to buy. This will happen.

Middle of the week quick read: There are nearly 7500 pending sales and almost 1500 AWC contracts out there...Sales should surpass 5000 for the month of July. Actives have fallen back into the 52800 range, and we may see them drop again at the end of the month into the 51000's.

chris

ARMLS DATA 7/14/08-7/20/08

SALES UP FOR THE WEEK
PENDING AND AWC HAVE PEAKED AND REMAIN LEVEL
ECONOMIC NEWS WEIGHING HEAVY ON HOUSING RECOVERY

Pending Sales: 7343 ( -120 from last week)

Active/with Contingency: 1457 ( -12 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,462 ( +168 from last week)

Closed Escrows (Through 7/20) 1327 ( +348 from last week)

Closed Month To Date: (7/20) 3024

Single Family Sold: 1183

Single Family MTD: 2,684

Active Single Family: 42,966


Sales were up for the week, and we seem to be on track to get to 5,000 sales for the month, but the financial markets seem to be weighing down a strong recovery. Our pending and AWC contracts have peaked and have slid back slightly over the last several weeks, and imply that we are not going to improve our June sales-the best month we have had this year. July is going to be better than last July, almost assuredly, but it would have been nice to build on June sales. There is still a lot of talk about how difficult it is to get financing, as banks are being very cautious with their lending now. There also seems to be a large number of new listings coming on line, and I am wondering a bit if the number of active listings will fall this month at all. Foreclosures may be coming back on the market, and there are a fair amount of short sales out there as well.

The treasury secretary came out on sunday and gave less than an optimistic view on the idea of a quick recovery, but hopefully the shoring up of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will mean that conforming mortgages will have a market, and the lenders can let their breath out, and make the loans.

I am not as optimistic about a quick recovery in housing, as there seems to be such an overhang of inventory we just can't seem to make a dent in. The supply of homes on the market is still way to high, and our earlier gains in cutting inventory seem to be counter-balanced by more coming on line. We will probably still be selling 5000 homes a month for the next few, but I don't know that it is enough to really cut inventory.

ARMLS DATA 7//7/08-7/13/08

PENDINGS REGAIN STRENGTH, AWC LEVEL OUT.


PENDING SALES: 7463 ( +358 from last week)

AWC Contracts: 1469 ( -28 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 52,294 ( +11 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS 6/7 -6/13 979 ( -391 from last week)

Closed Month to Date (7/13/08) 1,671

Single Family Dwellings Sold this week: 884

SFD SOLD MONTH TO DATE: 1,476

Active SFD 42,853

Uneventful middle week of the month. Pending sales are back to a strong level that would indicate similar sales numbers to May and June. New AWC contracts are slightly lower, which may indicate the middle of the summer slowdown we will see in July and August. I don't anticipate July sales being better than June's, but they look to be better than last year's. I think we would see around 5,000 sales this month. If we do significantly better than that, great.

We are in a tough place nationally for news, with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae encountering some difficulties in the market this week, and IndyMac bank failing. I am going to lay that at the feet of the senator who caused the run on deposits for that bank. Thank Charles Schumer for that everyone. Regardless of your political leanings, that isn't exactly bright to shout "boo" behind a group of nervous people wandering down a dark road. His point is understood, IndyMac shouldn't have been leaning over the cliff; it doesn't mean he needed to push it completely over.

The financial news is going to eventually affect home sales, bottom line. How much is the question. We are in the recovery mode in Arizona, even if prices are still suffering. They are not going to go back up overnight, and we don't really want that. First time buyers have an opportunity to buy now at decent prices, and although it hurts someone, we still need the inventory cleared, and can't wait years for that to happen.

It is interesting that the percentage of single family dwellings is so high. Is the condo market dead? I haven't seen any indicators why that would be, but its very interesting because the overall ratio of single family homes on the market to sales of SFD is more favorable than the overall market. We only have about a 8.25 month supply of single family homes, while the overall ratio is well over 9 month supply. We are not that far away from a six month supply, which would be fairly acceptable- not a quickly moving market, but acceptable by national standards.

I am a little nervous about continuing growth in our sales. Obviously, the AWC is an indicator of new contracts, and it is slipping ever so slightly. It would be best if that grew, but I think it may be leveling out here as we have reached a seasonal point where sales have slowed in the past. It hasn't fallen far, and I think that means this month and probably next month will be okay, but the fall is difficult to project. The fall is usually weaker to begin with, and we don't know now that is going to look yet this year. Better than last year, I think, but last year was atrocious.

chris

Pinal County updating General Plan

Pinal County is updating their General Plan for the growth areas of Pinal County. You can find a link of it here. There are some interesting things in this report. It is 239 pages long, worth looking through.


chris

Builders looking at Turnaround?

We may be finally seeing signs that the "smart money" in real estate is sensing signs of a turnaround. Big builders are buying land-of course at vastly discounted prices . This is a very good sign that they are seeing some light in the next six months to a year. There are quite a few builders locally that I have talked to that have are looking for finished lots, as they have been able to buy them from other builders pretty reasonably.

chris






chris

MLS STATS 6/3/008 through 7/06/08

Quiet First Week of July; June Sales Figures Final tally at 5,763

Pending Sales: 7105 ( +192 from last week)

Active w/ Contingency: 1497 ( + 34 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,283 ( - 99 from last week)

Closed Escrows 6/30-7/6/08 1,452 ( - 42 from last week)

Closed month to Date 7/6/08: 670

A very quiet week due undoubtedly due to the Fourth of July Holiday and also being the first week of the month, as per usual. Pending Sales have bounced back nicely, but we have reached a AWC plateau in the short term. There seems to be just a slight bit of elasticity upwards over 1500, but that seems to be a resistance point. However, The pending and AWC numbers at these levels would support significant increases in sales over the second half of last year, so we are definitely on a better track. Sales last July and August were 4,683 and 4,302 respectively. We are on a trend to beat those numbers, and hopefully that trend will continue.

Listings declined somewhat in the past week. Hopefully that is a continuing trend, but I am hearing that there are some significant amount of listings coming on line through banks. We will see how that affects listings. If we can continue to stay in the 5K sales range, we will be doing better than all of the second half of last year, and should show some improvement.

2007 MONTHLY SALES ARMLS -TOTAL: July 4,683
August 4,302
September 3,375

October 3,431
November 3,313
December 3,341

As you can see, the bar is not very high for increasing sales, but by posting month over month gains, and year over year gains, we will be able to start changing the psychology of the potential buyer out there, and encourage future purchasing behavior. We are definitely in a position to start blowing by last year's numbers, but I can almost assure you that the news will then focus on how we are not doing as well as 2006 or 2005. It is inevitable they will do that.

I am working on a chart for the first half of the year, but have had some sizing glitches posting it, but will attempt to get that rectified and get it posted.

MLS Stats 6/23-6/29

June Sales Surpass June '07!
June Sales Surpass May '08!

Preliminary Figures show 5,732 gross MLS Closings!

Weekly MLS Stats 6-23 though-6-29

Sorry, I got a little late start today, but the good news is that we had a great week, and while Monday the 30th are not included in the weekly sales, we have safely surpassed the critical figure of June 07, marking the first year over year improvement. That is a benchmark, and I am very happy about that. I will dive into the single family home sales component as well, but first, lets get the weekly numbers out of the way:


Pending Sales: 6913 ( -693 from last week)

Active with Contingency: 1,463 ( -85 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,382 ( -603 from last week)

Closed Escrows 6-23 to 6-29 1,494 ( +322 from last week)

Closed Month to Date (6/29) 4,965

Closed Month of June (preliminary) 5733 ( +328 from June '07)
( +101 from May '08)

Single Family Homes Sold in June: 5,069 +198 from May'08

Single Family Listings 7/1/08 42,907

Single Family Supply: 8.46 months

Okay, where to start...June was a very good month given our last year. Psychologically, it is important that we finally did get a monthly increase year over year, as it hasn't happend for probably three years. (April was supposedly, but as you may recall there was the fiasco including the foreclosure sales and bank repos) These are legitimate MLS sales, and as such, I mark this as an important step to the recovery. It is also worth noting that we eclipsed May's sales figures as well, so we get a two for one on the improvement front. June is a fair month, but May has run better in the past, except for the boom years, which were more attributable to a rising market event than normalcy, so it is a sign of relative strength. Single family home sales in June were also better than May's which is another great sign.

This is a very nice development, as due to the number of pendings and active with contingencies still on the books, it looks like we are probably going to pace ahead of the next few months in sales as well, giving us a very nice improvement over last year. I won't speak to more than a quarter out, as the economy is fragile, or at least the news leads us to believe that, and we could have a slowdown in the next few months. But its foreseeable that July will be a good month, and August as well, given the number of contracts already in play.

Not everything was rosy, however. We still see that the number of active listings, while they did slide, did not slide as far as hoped. That means there were a fair amount of listings that came on the market. While we still bit into the listings, we really only cleared about 500 off for a month, it appears. That number is funny, because it doesn't appear to track well with the closed sales or pendings exactly, and so I don't know how they calculate it. The new system will be different I suppose, so I am not going to spend a lot of time worrying about it.

So far the bad news, that was just about it. We haven't reached the sales levels of 2003 yet, but we are doing a heck of a lot better.

I will be putting up a chart of the activity at some point this week. I wanted to include June into the chart, which I can do now. We have reached the halfway point of the year, and we are continuing to do better, although we have a little ways to go to be in a strong market again. A 25% increase in sales would be an excellent long term monthly sales number, but I think we are a ways from achieving that yet. The status of the Housing rescue plan will have a lot to do with that. There is a $8000 first time homebuyer tax credit included in that bill, which has not yet passed, that will encourage some purchasing next year. I don't have all the details on that yet, but it would be a step in the right direction to get people motivated again. In the meantime, we do have some definite signs of strength in our market, even if the national market is not doing better yet.

Chris Just

MLS STATS THROUGH 6/22/08

PENDINGS, AWC, Total Contracts INCREASE to Recorded Yearly High, Weekly Sales Drop Slightly.
Active listings increase, Sales ahead of June 07 pace, slightly behind May 08 pace.


June 15-June 22nd, 2008
Pending Sales: 7606 ( +191 from last week)

Active W/Contingency: 1548 ( +18 from last week)

Total Contracts: 9,154 ( +209 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,985 ( +254 from last week)

Closed Escrows 6.15.08-6.22.08 1,172 ( -42 from last week)

Closed MTD Through 6.22.08 3,428 ( +11 pace from June 22 '07) (5,406 total)
( -27 pace from May 22 '08) (5,636 total)


The stats point to continued strength in buyer activity, as pending contracts, as well as active with contingency contracts continue to build. This, coupled with increasing monthly sales, is a very positive sign. We are at yearly highs in the "good categories" of pendings and AWC, so we are continuing to go in the right direction.

The sales pace is also in line to reach June 2007, but due to how the 30 is on a Monday, I am not sure we will get there. We are ahead of the pace as of the 22nd, and it could happen that there is a huge surge in sales through this week and next Monday, but Mondays are odd days for title companies to close on, so we will have to see if 5,406 is reachable . It will be an interesting race to see if we get there. An unofficial check today has us 151 sales ahead of last year through this date, and we are only half way through the day. It will have to be a good week to get there, and Monday the 30th will have to be a big day. There are just a lot of weekend days this month, but it would be very uplifting to finally get a year over year increase in sales in the MLS numbers. If we do overtake June 2007 numbers this month, we are likely to see month over sales increases for the rest of 2008. The summer months were nothing to write home about last year, so given our pending numbers, we are likely to blow those numbers out of the water locally.

Active listings also climbed last week, but as we often see before the end of the month, this number creeps up, and then drains quickly as pendings close much more rapidly at the end of the month. There is still a little mystery in the active listings number, why it takes such a large drop at the end of the month, and not really during the month. Its an oddity probably rooted in when new listings come on the market, and it appears they rarely come on immediately following the last days of a month. We will probably see that number reduced by a good 1500 at the end of June. I think it is an important psychological number to reach.

SINGLE FAMILY ONLY

For those interested in the Single family category sales only, through June 24, 2007, we were at 2,809 single family sales. For the same period in June of 2008, we are at 3169. We are outpacing last year quite nicely in single family sales. There are currently 43,382 single family listings in MLS, which is 214 more than last week at this time. We will see that number drop at the end of the month, in all likelihood. As I mentioned, ARMLS is going to be switching away from the TEMPO system in a few months, so once I have a handle on the new software, I may start breaking out single family statistics. It just wouldn't be feasible to do at this point.

OTHER NEWS

The Cash-Shiller price index came out today and recorded some abysmal price drop numbers. I won't bore you with repeating the details; you can find it on news sites anywhere on the web. While that is of no doubt concerning to many, given the amount of inventory available nationwide, price drops are going to be with us as this market shakes out. However, I think that what we are seeing on a local basis is already changing. I have ran across several homebuyers who have had to go up and over the asking the price to obtain short sales in Phoenix. Prices in many areas of the valley have been deeply affected, and I have great sympathy for anybody in that predicament. I hvae been told by my own mortgage company that they reduced my home's value by 10%. I disagree with them, but little can be done. What this does is give young families who were shut out of buying a home in 2004-2006 a chance to buy at a reasonable and affordable price. I have seen two very well known personalities from the homebuilding business who have restarted companies that will focus on starter homes in the $90K's and low $100K's. This, whether we like it or not, is a good development, as the health of our economy does rely on reasonable housing. More sales lead to higher prices, and so in a pure market sense, clearing inventory at bargain prices means we will find equilibrium in the market much sooner. It is painful, as far as pricing goes, but it is the only way forward at this point. I think the Valley's prices may be reaching their downside, as the inventory to sales ratio is being reduced as sales rise, and inventory falls. Its very possible we could reach an equilibrium in 2-3 quarters. More likely 3 quarters, given the general malaise of the economy.

Thanks for reading!