MLS Stats 9/1-9/7

Pending Sales Rise Locally
Listings Rise a bit, Sales fall in first week


Pending Sales: 7,203 ( +479 from last week)

Active w/Contingency: 1,013 ( +72 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 836 ( -1287 from last week)

Closed MTD: 836

Active Listings: 52,072 ( +458 from last week)

Single Family Stats

Pendings: 6,503 ( +436 from last week)

Active: 42,705 ( +358 from last week)

Closed: 750 ( -1144 from last week)



This was a fairly normal first week of the month. A heavier dose of closings would have been nice, but the way that August finished on a weekend, and the first day being a holiday led to a slightly less robust number. The pending figures are back into good territory, crossing well into the 7000 range. The AWC figures are not a good gauge anymore, as it doesn't seem to be tracking well with the previous system's AWC, even though the rest of the numbers, like pendings and ultimately closings, are fairly similar. I will keep using it, and it may redefine itself. It doesn't look good if you have been watching the statistics for the past year though, and I guess that is what bothers me.

I can't help but touch on the Bailout of Fannie/Freddie. A lot of people may not like this, but it is going to help the housing industry. I have already seen a half point drop in mortgage rates in some areas, according to one of the business channels this morning. Banks will also be more inclined to lend, as they now have a guaranteed market should they wish to sell the note. I don't know how quick it will take hold or what effect it might have; perhaps it will be relatively minor. It should bring some people back into the market for homes, and as we are locally going into our worst part of the year next month, the effect might be diluted as us just maintaining a solid but not noticeable increase in sales over last year. If we maintain our current rate of sales and inventory drawdown, we are still a good year from recovery. If we have a 10% increase in those stats, we could be back to a manageable inventory in as little as 6 months. There is no perfect formula though, as inventory draw down has happened in fits and spurts. We reached a recorded high of 56109 in February, and have slowly come off that figure. Even though we had increasing sales, we also had a lot of inventory go on the market, so it has taken 7 months to draw down about 4000 units. Increased sales will push that down quicker, but the fourth quarter is the least likely time we will see it happen significantly. Given that fact, I am still estimating a close to a year before we drop down to 40-45K listings. Fourth Quarter and early first quarter are not big movers, but I do suspect next march will be a very decent month for us. The time in between? Who knows, but I suspect it will not be as good as August of '08, but much better than last years figures.