MLS Stats 9/8-9/14/08

Sales Pick Up, Typical Mid-month week


PENDING SALES: 7,369 ( + 166 from last week)

AWC : 1,048 ( +35 from last week)

Closed Escrows: 1,038 ( +202 from last week)

Closed through 8/14/08 1,907

Active Listings: 52,218 ( +146 from last week)


SINGLE FAMILY STATS

PENDING SALES: 6,652 (+149 from last week)

Active listings: 42,806 (+101 from last week)

Closed: 953 ( +203 from last week)

Nothing exceptional to report about this week's numbers; it was a typical mid month week, showing decent sales numbers, an uptick in listings, and an uptick in pending sales. What I do like to see is that it appears that we may be holding on to the gains of summer, and September could be on par with August and July. That would be exceptional for our market locally, as it would then point to us having blown through what would be a seasonal downturn. This would show actual signs of returning strength, as this is not a good month at all last year.

At this same time last year, there were only 1,256 sales. The month finished with 3,377 total sales. I don't count this number so I can keep consistency, but including yesterday -midmonth- there are over 2300 sales already. We could almost blow past the entire spetember 07 tally by the 19th-not likely, but its close enough to make it interesting. Comparatively, we are going to do very well in September, however it shakes out. The pending numbers are also showing signs of continuing strength at the 5000-6000- sales level. I don't think we will reach 6000 sales a month any more this year, as we ar going into the slow 4th quarter, but I think it will be consistently decent numbers in the 5000+ per month from the way the numbers are shaping up. It will be interesting to see if the sales hold up, as if they do, we might get some exaggerated fall in active listings, as they don't come on the market as fast in 4th quarter either. Falling sharply into the 40K's in listings would be the most welcome outcome of this 4th quarter.

Now, that being said, it is yet to be determined how the Wall Street financial problems are going to shake out. It sounds like another rate cut is coming, but it appears we already had our big drop in interest rates last week with the rescue of Fannie and Freddie. I don't know what the additional cut will do for housing. I guess it might lower home equity line rates, but it seems to me that we would want to keep the pressure on the price of oil going down, and a rate cut doesn't help with that. Obviously oil falling to $92 a barrel is a welcome sign to most of us, but I wish that savings was being passed on to us. Gas prices have come down very slowly, as the refiners take their usual stance that they already paid for the oil they are refining, so it was done at at a higher price. Of course, they are quick to raise prices when oil is rising aren't they? People don't realize that lower gas prices is a huge stimulus check for most of us, and it will help in terms of housing sales and the overall economy.