MLS Stats 9/22-9/28/08

Weekly Sales Strong, Inventory Rises, Pendings Fall



PENDING SALES: 7014 ( -405 from last week)

Active W/ Contingency Contracts: 1041 (-19 from last week)

Closed Escrows (9.22- 9.28/08): 1,557 ( +76 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,743 ( +327 from last week)

Closed MTD through 9/22/08) 4,974

Single Family Stats

Pending: 6,274 ( -406 from last week)

Active Listings: 43,255 ( +271 from last week)

Closed 9.22-9.28: 1,428 ( +94 from last week)

Closed MTD (9/28) 4,517

We had a very nice week for sales again, and it is pointing to an excellent end of the month. We have an outside chance of this being the best month of the year, actually, but it would require a very strong last day of sales. My guess is that it will fall short, but the fact that we are talking about it is very encouraging.

What is less encouraging is the stubborn amount of listings. We really need to see that number start going down, and while I expect it to drop after the last day of the month, it has climbed back up to a big enough number that I don't expect to see it in the 50,000's this month; it may now not even reach back to the 51,000's. There is simply too much inventory.

Lest it be a problem with the overall inventory, including condos and the few timeshares, etc that show up in the bulk listings, the active listings for single family also remains high, and climbed significantly over the last two weeks. I do expect it to retrace at the end of the month, but the downward momentum seems to be gone. We have certainly come substantially off of our high inventory levels, but we seem to be bumping along here now. It is very important that we start showing some signs that the inventory is decreasing, or the price levels of homes will continue downward. If prices keep falling, then it chases buyers out of the market as they wait for the bottom.

I will try to do an update later in the week addressing the end of the month sales. I am really curious to see how this plays out today. It would be exceptional if we got to 6000 sales this month, but it would require a good day today.

chris