ARMLS CHANGES OVER DATA SYSTEM,
I am going to attempt the use of the new data system, so thoughtfully paid for by the members of MLS. They are charging us a boatload more, but I don't see the increased benefits at this point. I guess if you are selling houses it makes sense, some of these additional features make sense but I don't see the benefit at this point.
I don't know how the stats are going to transition; I am not completely familiar with the new system yet, as yesterday was the first day I looked at it. It may be that in order to keep statistics consistent, I may have to change the day I do this, or change the weekly tabulation date; I had been using monday to sunday, but I will have to see if that is possible.
Pending Sales: 7,310 ( -33 from last week)
Active W/Contingency: 1,407 ( -50 from last week)
Closed Escrow 7.21-7.27.08 1,177 ( -150 from last week)
Closed Month to Date (7.27.08) 4,215
Active Listings: 52,854 ( + 394 from last week)
Single Family Closed 7.21.-7.28 1,038 ( -145 from last week)
Single Family MTD 3,738
Single Family Active 43,311 ( +345 from last week)
The statistics seem to be fairly accurate, although I can just imagine some agents out there who haven't got the system figured out and so haven't entered pendings or closings. Its usually that way when a system changes. The numbers are fairly accurate, although I do think that the sales are a little low, and we may see that catch up by the end of the week as agents pick up the system and get current stats in. The historical stats are of course, unaffected.
We are behind last month's pace at the same date, which I expected, but we are ahead of last July's pace at the same date 3,850). We can probably expect to top 5,000 sales in the month, but will fall short of June's 5700 or so closings. Year over year improvement for the same date is what we are looking for, as seasonal variations now apply. 5000 isn't great, but it does show that properties are moving, despite the mortgage issues. We are going to see some benefit from the support of Fannie mae and freddie mac, and for those people who wish to take advantage of the $7500 tax credit for buying a new home between 08 and 09. If oil continues to fall, and optimism increases, I think we will find that homebuyers in this market are going to realize that buying a home is okay again. We won't have the greedy buying of 2005, and likely won't again for a generation, so don't expect to see those numbers again for a while. We will go back to being a moderately priced market for a buyer willing to live on the fringe of town, and have a brisk rate of sales for those who price decently.
I hadn't mentioned about the active listings yet. They have been a quirky number this month, but still haven't really made a move very far up or down, despite signalling they would. As I look back, it seems that we do at this time each month have short term build up of actives, as the pending sales are still included somehow, and we will drain it down following the heavy closings that occur at the end of the month. We will know next week if we shaved any volume off the listings. It doesn't look like we will get to 51000 this month, however. I think we could say we were healthy at 40000 listings, but it would be nice to be lower than that, so it looks to me that we still have a good year of either downward or drifting pricing pressures on values.
I may start adding some more useful stats like the average prices of homes sold, but I have to get a little more familiar with the system. I am not sure they had that loaded yet, as I kept drawing zeros in the stats when I looked into it.
I think this will still end up being a positive month for sales; it is not the breakout we would all like to see, but I don't think all the catalysts are there for that to happen yet. The housing bill will help, and some more positive economic news will help as well.
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