ARMLS DATA 7//7/08-7/13/08

PENDINGS REGAIN STRENGTH, AWC LEVEL OUT.


PENDING SALES: 7463 ( +358 from last week)

AWC Contracts: 1469 ( -28 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 52,294 ( +11 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS 6/7 -6/13 979 ( -391 from last week)

Closed Month to Date (7/13/08) 1,671

Single Family Dwellings Sold this week: 884

SFD SOLD MONTH TO DATE: 1,476

Active SFD 42,853

Uneventful middle week of the month. Pending sales are back to a strong level that would indicate similar sales numbers to May and June. New AWC contracts are slightly lower, which may indicate the middle of the summer slowdown we will see in July and August. I don't anticipate July sales being better than June's, but they look to be better than last year's. I think we would see around 5,000 sales this month. If we do significantly better than that, great.

We are in a tough place nationally for news, with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae encountering some difficulties in the market this week, and IndyMac bank failing. I am going to lay that at the feet of the senator who caused the run on deposits for that bank. Thank Charles Schumer for that everyone. Regardless of your political leanings, that isn't exactly bright to shout "boo" behind a group of nervous people wandering down a dark road. His point is understood, IndyMac shouldn't have been leaning over the cliff; it doesn't mean he needed to push it completely over.

The financial news is going to eventually affect home sales, bottom line. How much is the question. We are in the recovery mode in Arizona, even if prices are still suffering. They are not going to go back up overnight, and we don't really want that. First time buyers have an opportunity to buy now at decent prices, and although it hurts someone, we still need the inventory cleared, and can't wait years for that to happen.

It is interesting that the percentage of single family dwellings is so high. Is the condo market dead? I haven't seen any indicators why that would be, but its very interesting because the overall ratio of single family homes on the market to sales of SFD is more favorable than the overall market. We only have about a 8.25 month supply of single family homes, while the overall ratio is well over 9 month supply. We are not that far away from a six month supply, which would be fairly acceptable- not a quickly moving market, but acceptable by national standards.

I am a little nervous about continuing growth in our sales. Obviously, the AWC is an indicator of new contracts, and it is slipping ever so slightly. It would be best if that grew, but I think it may be leveling out here as we have reached a seasonal point where sales have slowed in the past. It hasn't fallen far, and I think that means this month and probably next month will be okay, but the fall is difficult to project. The fall is usually weaker to begin with, and we don't know now that is going to look yet this year. Better than last year, I think, but last year was atrocious.

chris