MLS STATS THROUGH 6/22/08

PENDINGS, AWC, Total Contracts INCREASE to Recorded Yearly High, Weekly Sales Drop Slightly.
Active listings increase, Sales ahead of June 07 pace, slightly behind May 08 pace.


June 15-June 22nd, 2008
Pending Sales: 7606 ( +191 from last week)

Active W/Contingency: 1548 ( +18 from last week)

Total Contracts: 9,154 ( +209 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,985 ( +254 from last week)

Closed Escrows 6.15.08-6.22.08 1,172 ( -42 from last week)

Closed MTD Through 6.22.08 3,428 ( +11 pace from June 22 '07) (5,406 total)
( -27 pace from May 22 '08) (5,636 total)


The stats point to continued strength in buyer activity, as pending contracts, as well as active with contingency contracts continue to build. This, coupled with increasing monthly sales, is a very positive sign. We are at yearly highs in the "good categories" of pendings and AWC, so we are continuing to go in the right direction.

The sales pace is also in line to reach June 2007, but due to how the 30 is on a Monday, I am not sure we will get there. We are ahead of the pace as of the 22nd, and it could happen that there is a huge surge in sales through this week and next Monday, but Mondays are odd days for title companies to close on, so we will have to see if 5,406 is reachable . It will be an interesting race to see if we get there. An unofficial check today has us 151 sales ahead of last year through this date, and we are only half way through the day. It will have to be a good week to get there, and Monday the 30th will have to be a big day. There are just a lot of weekend days this month, but it would be very uplifting to finally get a year over year increase in sales in the MLS numbers. If we do overtake June 2007 numbers this month, we are likely to see month over sales increases for the rest of 2008. The summer months were nothing to write home about last year, so given our pending numbers, we are likely to blow those numbers out of the water locally.

Active listings also climbed last week, but as we often see before the end of the month, this number creeps up, and then drains quickly as pendings close much more rapidly at the end of the month. There is still a little mystery in the active listings number, why it takes such a large drop at the end of the month, and not really during the month. Its an oddity probably rooted in when new listings come on the market, and it appears they rarely come on immediately following the last days of a month. We will probably see that number reduced by a good 1500 at the end of June. I think it is an important psychological number to reach.

SINGLE FAMILY ONLY

For those interested in the Single family category sales only, through June 24, 2007, we were at 2,809 single family sales. For the same period in June of 2008, we are at 3169. We are outpacing last year quite nicely in single family sales. There are currently 43,382 single family listings in MLS, which is 214 more than last week at this time. We will see that number drop at the end of the month, in all likelihood. As I mentioned, ARMLS is going to be switching away from the TEMPO system in a few months, so once I have a handle on the new software, I may start breaking out single family statistics. It just wouldn't be feasible to do at this point.

OTHER NEWS

The Cash-Shiller price index came out today and recorded some abysmal price drop numbers. I won't bore you with repeating the details; you can find it on news sites anywhere on the web. While that is of no doubt concerning to many, given the amount of inventory available nationwide, price drops are going to be with us as this market shakes out. However, I think that what we are seeing on a local basis is already changing. I have ran across several homebuyers who have had to go up and over the asking the price to obtain short sales in Phoenix. Prices in many areas of the valley have been deeply affected, and I have great sympathy for anybody in that predicament. I hvae been told by my own mortgage company that they reduced my home's value by 10%. I disagree with them, but little can be done. What this does is give young families who were shut out of buying a home in 2004-2006 a chance to buy at a reasonable and affordable price. I have seen two very well known personalities from the homebuilding business who have restarted companies that will focus on starter homes in the $90K's and low $100K's. This, whether we like it or not, is a good development, as the health of our economy does rely on reasonable housing. More sales lead to higher prices, and so in a pure market sense, clearing inventory at bargain prices means we will find equilibrium in the market much sooner. It is painful, as far as pricing goes, but it is the only way forward at this point. I think the Valley's prices may be reaching their downside, as the inventory to sales ratio is being reduced as sales rise, and inventory falls. Its very possible we could reach an equilibrium in 2-3 quarters. More likely 3 quarters, given the general malaise of the economy.

Thanks for reading!