Pendings Bounce Back, AWC Contracts top 1500 for first time this year!
Pending Sales: 7391 ( + 453 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1503 ( + 47 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8894 ( + 500 from last week)
Active listings: 52,856 ( -21 from last week)
Closed escrows 6.2.08-6.08.08 936 ( -850 from last week)
Month to Date Closings (6/08/08) 1001
Not a lot to say about the first week of June, other than that pendings have bounced back nicely after the end of the month reduction. This was something I was wondering about, as a weak recovery in pendings might have forecast falling sales over the summer. A strong rebound of the number shows that we can expect similar sales numbers for June and July at least. It is too early to know what August will bring. Similar numbers means we would have a substantial increase in sales over the summer of 2007, when the market really started tanking.
The other very encouraging sign is that we continue to build on the AWC number, reaching 1500 for the first time since I began recording these stats last September. Given the sales figures of last summer, it is probable that this is the highest number since last May. I hadn't started recording stats yet, so I can't be sure, but extrapolating it surely points in that direction. This is encouraging in that new contracts are coming in at a rate that replaces the AWC contracts that go pending, or in the case of agents who never change to pending, when the listings sell. This is a critical number, and of those 1503 AWC contracts, 1386 are single family homes. We do have a bit of a recovery working its way through the industry, and while it is not a gangbusters recovery, we seem to be heading in the right direction.
The stats also show that active listings have fallen a bit this week, which is fine, but I do expect that number to vacillate a bit during the month, as most real reductions come at the end of the month, and we are just as likely to see a slight rise in any given week of that number during the month. I think that the system is counting pendings still as active, although I can't seem to seperate those out in the statistics. I don't quite see ARMLS's methodology relating to Active listings. Regardless, if we can bleed some of those off during the month, all the better. We will probably lose a 1000+ at the end of the month. It would be nice to see an even bigger drop, but I doubt we will see actives slide into the 40k's this month.
One group of stats that I haven't incorporated into my regular reporting is single family dwellings separated out. The numbers get a tedious to track, so I just try to keep the market trend simple, but its worth noting that single family homes make up 43,243 of the active listings. I haven't kept track of the active listings for SFD over the past year, so it is difficult to give that number perspective, but I will probably start recording it in case I wish to start using that statistic.
I may post some other info later, but I wanted to get these stats out this morning.
chris just
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