NOVEMBER SALES WEAK; ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL
Pendings fall slightly, but maintain a much stronger level than 07.
PENDING SALES: 6175 ( -193 from last week)
AWC: 956 (-53 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,231 ( +135 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 54,533 ( -723 from last week)
CLOSED: November '08 4,300
SINGLE FAMILY STATS
PENDING SALES: 5598 ( -181 from last week)
AWC: 877 ( -38 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,129 ( +133 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 44,817 ( -601 from last week)
CLOSED: NOV. '08 3,943
Most of the stats for November are in-there are a few straggling closings being posted, but really not enough to change the general picture. The month finished very poorly, and because of that, we didn't reach close to the 5,000 mark. It was a holiday week to be sure, and this month had a lot of weekend days which hurts it, but this was likely the result of the credit crisis that hit in September and softened up the sales that would occur through october and november. The pendings haven't gone real soft; they are at a better level than last year, (pending sales last year this week were 3834) and that is a sign that we will continue to see sales at this level for the next few months. About the third week of January 2008, we started to see an uptick in new contracts, (AWC). This continued to build through February, and we started to see the resulting sales increase by March. I do expect a similar pattern for '09, and for January and February sales to be better than Jan or February 2008. January '08 posted only 2800 or so, and february about 3400...at current levels, we should blow right past that, and hopefully build on the pending numbers which will produce a very good march and april.
The listings number took a good hard fall this week-I think we are getting into that time of year where people don't put their homes up for sale unless absolutely necessary, and we might see inventory drop through the end of the year. It will pick up in January however, so that is but a short term bright spot.
If we can build on present pending numbers into 5 digit territory in March, we might see some real inventory reduction through the middle part of the year. I would also guess that we might see some homes come off the market as banks work to refinance some parties, or the government takes over asset-backed mortgages and recalibrates them. I would make the prediction that we will see sales in the 6000+ range for March and posssibly continue that way for several months. Given where we currently are, it wouldn't be unlikely that will happen. Mortgage rates are incredibly low, and the government finally decided to buy up some of the toxic assets after doling out money to their banker buddies first. This is going to go a long way toward unclogging homelending, and hopefully we will see that kick in come March.
We are still slugging through some tough times in the housing industry right now, as generally, new homes are also very soft, and have been since late September. Inventory in that area is cut way back, however, so while it is painful for the thinned out homebuilders who I have great empathy for, they are not doing any great damage to overall home market inventory. They have slimmed inventory substantially, and have gone to building a more affordable home which are going to sell better once there is some confidence.
No comments:
Post a Comment