MLS STATS 10/13-10/19/08

PENDING ARE FLAT; ACTIVES RISING STEADILY
SALES NOT KEEPING PACE




PENDING SALES: 6,463 ( -107 from last week)

AWC: 1,046 ( + 11 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,041 (+157 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 54,001 ( +532 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: (10/19) 2,644

SINGLE FAMILY STATS


PENDING SALES: 5,861 ( -86 from last week)

AWC: 955 ( +1 from last week)

CLOSED ESCROWS: 939 ( +144 from last week)

ACTIVE LISTINGS: 44,414 ( +437 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 2,388


This week probably denotes that we are going to see the effects of the financial crisis hit us in the fourth quarter. The numbers are not promising. Sales are up a bit over last week, but they are still far too low to signal a good number at the end of the month. What's most troubling is the number of Listings-inventory keeps climbing, and as it took almost the whole year to make the progress of reducing listings by a few thousand, we have given all that ground back. We are going into the worst 4 months of sales during the year, and inventory is already rising. There is no doubt September was the best month we have had in a long time, but it appears the financial shock has caused more people to put their homes on the market, and given that this is not the time of year we absorb inventory, our recovery might stall for the next quarter. I think starting in February, we will start to see some good sales again, but we are going dormant for the next several months in all likelihood. People's confidence is shaken, and while we seem to have weathered it to some degree, and there also appears to be a plan in place by the Feds to bolster home prices as a key part of their rescue plan, it is going to take several months before we see that effect. In the meantime, inventory looks like it might continue to grow, and sales will dip seasonally, as they usually do. This is not going to help prices.

We are not on a good pace to hit 5500 sales in October; last month at the same date, we had 3,298 closed escrows already, compared to 2644 this month. That is not a good indicator. There might be a blowout at the end of the month, but that would be required to just get to 5000 sales. That is not an entirely bad number, given the last two years, we are adding inventory at a greater pace than sales, so it is indicating a lack of progress.

The good news is that September leading indicators were actually up, and gas prices are sliding rapidly, which may do more for consumer confidence than anything else. I heard Fargo ND, had a price of $2.38 this week! Our prices will fall similarly once we get to the winter blend of gas. This will help the consumer almost immediately, more so than any stimulus check.

We also have the "election effect" which seems to always slow down growth and optimism prior to choosing a president. After its over, America will get back to business with a renewed sense of optimism, no matter who wins-at least we hope so.