Home Sales in August

ARMLS reported sales of 4360 resale homes closed during the month of August in metro phoenix. It is not great numbers by any means, but I had some concern that there would be a lot of deals cancelled because of Jumbo loan sources drying up. The numbers are mediocre, but it was still good to see them stay over 4000 sales. I did some statistical modeling for september, and it looks like we may see about the same number, but possibly a little more. The AW/C numbers are not tested enough to tell if they will contribute to the current month totals, but over time we can get a better idea. I am hoping for a little bump in September. The mortgage mess is just one more psychological hurdle for buyers.

The Ryness report showed a little more disturbing trend last week; metro new home sales in Maricopa county showed a high percentage of cancellation; it makes sense in that core city new homes are typically more expensive than outlying areas, and jumbo loan financing availability has been a casualty of the mortgage crisis. The positive news was that Pinal Sales were okay, with relatively few cancellations. When homes are $130K-$200K, they are on average going to be more conforming type loans so they might not have as much trouble as the $400K plus market you see in chandler, Phoenix, and scottsdale. I do think that Pinal county and West Valley new homes are going to make resale homesellers miserable for a while, as there seems to be quite a disparity in the pricing in favor of buying a new home. I am thinking about selling my central phoenix home, and buying one in maricopa myself. As much time as I spend down there, it seems like a relative bargain.

One of my favorite areas in the metro phoenix area still seems to be doing well, and that is the little area commonly thought of as Hidden Valley southwest of Maricopa. It seems there are still many new custom homes going up in the area. It is odd to see the disparity in the asking prices of individual lots, as you will see pricing anywhere from $35K per acre to $70K an acre, and some even higher. There has to be opportunity for investors in there somewhere. Century Road is going to be a beautiful rural drive, with lovely views of the mountains to the west and south, and many nice homes going up in that corridor. Another pretty area is south of Stanfield, called high chaparral ranch. There are not a lot of small parcels available in here yet, but the area has stunning views and great landscape, right at the edge of Table Top Mountain Preserve, and you can see Casa Grande quite clearly, as the land sits a little higher. It is going to be a custom home area eventually.

I would appreciate any comments.


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