Home Sales Estimates-pendings 9/10/07

I am going to try to post weekly pending sales figures. This number, when viewed over time, does give us an idea of relative strength and likely sales numbers in the the next month. The number doesn't track perfectly, as some pendings will take more than 30 days to close, but there is a close correlation between pendings and monthly sales. I will try to track the accuracy of this over time. If we add the active with contingency statistic, it goes up, as many of these will soon turn to pending, but some will likely be pushed beyond the current month, so the number will usually be higher than the actual monthly sales figure. So as of 9/10/07:

pending: 4299 total homes
pending + AW/C: 4823 Total Homes

These numbers do include all condos, townhomes, SF Residences.

Arizona's subprime delinquency rate has risen, although it is certainly not as bad as some other boom states. The Arizona Republic's real estate writer, Catherine Reagor, has reported.

We have so far seemed to weather the downturn pretty well, with fallout being somewhat limited so far. It is nothing but expected that a certain percentage of subprime loans will default, that is why they are call subprime! Any lender that hasn't already calculated some percentage of that into their business model is lying. They know there will be defaults. There is going to be some pain no doubt, but if we get an interest rate cut, it will likely do wonders for the psyches of many people. Right now, it seems like so many people are paralyzed in fear, as not only do they think prices are going to slide, but also that they cannot get financing. I get more emails from lenders soliciting real estate agents to bring their deals to them now then at any time I can remember. It is really difficult to understand where the truth lies, and that is holding many people from applying for a mortgage. I have been told by industry professionals that while you can't smile and sign like you did during the last few years, if you deserve to get a loan, you typically can, on conforming loans. I have received advertising for jumbo loan financing up to 95% LTV just today, which I had heard had disappeared. Anyone with any insight on the mortgage business, feel free to comment here on what you know. Thanks!

chris