Monday, September 17, 2007

Home Sales Estimates Phoenix Metro 9/17/07

UPDATED

This is the second week of Housing Sales Estimates, using statistics from the ARMLS. There is no great change from last week, and we will need a much longer analysis period to determine where things are. It is clear though, that we are down almost a third in home sales since last year's figures for the same time period. Certainly, resales are suffering, but they are also the highest priced (relatively) housing product available now. New homes are relatively low-priced in many submarkets, compared to existing homes, and therefore resales could suffer.

Here is what I have found for the week of 9.10.2007-9.16.2007

Universal Pending Sales as of 9/17/07: 4246

Pending Sales + Active with Contingency: 4754

Sales Closed 9.10.07-9.16.07: 796***

Active Homes: 56,756**


*This only applies to reported sales as of 9/17/07 at noon, there will likely be more reported eventually.

**This number includes mobiles and likely timeshares, etc, so it must be taken with a grain of salt. It is simpler to include them and relate it to the total sales figures, then to sift through and pull sales that might be mobiles, etc. This is technically the most accurate statistic; it just includes listings and a few sales we are not really interested in.

***I had originally only searched for closings that happened during weekdays; apparently, many sales are reported by agents as closed on Saturday or Sunday as well, so there is a steep upward revision in the total closings for the week.

This is a mid-month week, and there are typically less closings during this mid-month week then at the end of the month.

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