UPDATED
This is the second week of Housing Sales Estimates, using statistics from the ARMLS. There is no great change from last week, and we will need a much longer analysis period to determine where things are. It is clear though, that we are down almost a third in home sales since last year's figures for the same time period. Certainly, resales are suffering, but they are also the highest priced (relatively) housing product available now. New homes are relatively low-priced in many submarkets, compared to existing homes, and therefore resales could suffer.
Here is what I have found for the week of 9.10.2007-9.16.2007
Universal Pending Sales as of 9/17/07: 4246
Pending Sales + Active with Contingency: 4754
Sales Closed 9.10.07-9.16.07: 796***
Active Homes: 56,756**
*This only applies to reported sales as of 9/17/07 at noon, there will likely be more reported eventually.
**This number includes mobiles and likely timeshares, etc, so it must be taken with a grain of salt. It is simpler to include them and relate it to the total sales figures, then to sift through and pull sales that might be mobiles, etc. This is technically the most accurate statistic; it just includes listings and a few sales we are not really interested in.
***I had originally only searched for closings that happened during weekdays; apparently, many sales are reported by agents as closed on Saturday or Sunday as well, so there is a steep upward revision in the total closings for the week.
This is a mid-month week, and there are typically less closings during this mid-month week then at the end of the month.
http://www.justlandconsultants.com/
Showing posts with label Arizona housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona housing. Show all posts
Monday, September 17, 2007
Monday, September 10, 2007
Home Sales Estimates-pendings 9/10/07
I am going to try to post weekly pending sales figures. This number, when viewed over time, does give us an idea of relative strength and likely sales numbers in the the next month. The number doesn't track perfectly, as some pendings will take more than 30 days to close, but there is a close correlation between pendings and monthly sales. I will try to track the accuracy of this over time. If we add the active with contingency statistic, it goes up, as many of these will soon turn to pending, but some will likely be pushed beyond the current month, so the number will usually be higher than the actual monthly sales figure. So as of 9/10/07:
pending: 4299 total homes
pending + AW/C: 4823 Total Homes
These numbers do include all condos, townhomes, SF Residences.
Arizona's subprime delinquency rate has risen, although it is certainly not as bad as some other boom states. The Arizona Republic's real estate writer, Catherine Reagor, has reported.
We have so far seemed to weather the downturn pretty well, with fallout being somewhat limited so far. It is nothing but expected that a certain percentage of subprime loans will default, that is why they are call subprime! Any lender that hasn't already calculated some percentage of that into their business model is lying. They know there will be defaults. There is going to be some pain no doubt, but if we get an interest rate cut, it will likely do wonders for the psyches of many people. Right now, it seems like so many people are paralyzed in fear, as not only do they think prices are going to slide, but also that they cannot get financing. I get more emails from lenders soliciting real estate agents to bring their deals to them now then at any time I can remember. It is really difficult to understand where the truth lies, and that is holding many people from applying for a mortgage. I have been told by industry professionals that while you can't smile and sign like you did during the last few years, if you deserve to get a loan, you typically can, on conforming loans. I have received advertising for jumbo loan financing up to 95% LTV just today, which I had heard had disappeared. Anyone with any insight on the mortgage business, feel free to comment here on what you know. Thanks!
chris
pending: 4299 total homes
pending + AW/C: 4823 Total Homes
These numbers do include all condos, townhomes, SF Residences.
Arizona's subprime delinquency rate has risen, although it is certainly not as bad as some other boom states. The Arizona Republic's real estate writer, Catherine Reagor, has reported.
We have so far seemed to weather the downturn pretty well, with fallout being somewhat limited so far. It is nothing but expected that a certain percentage of subprime loans will default, that is why they are call subprime! Any lender that hasn't already calculated some percentage of that into their business model is lying. They know there will be defaults. There is going to be some pain no doubt, but if we get an interest rate cut, it will likely do wonders for the psyches of many people. Right now, it seems like so many people are paralyzed in fear, as not only do they think prices are going to slide, but also that they cannot get financing. I get more emails from lenders soliciting real estate agents to bring their deals to them now then at any time I can remember. It is really difficult to understand where the truth lies, and that is holding many people from applying for a mortgage. I have been told by industry professionals that while you can't smile and sign like you did during the last few years, if you deserve to get a loan, you typically can, on conforming loans. I have received advertising for jumbo loan financing up to 95% LTV just today, which I had heard had disappeared. Anyone with any insight on the mortgage business, feel free to comment here on what you know. Thanks!
chris
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Home Sales in August
ARMLS reported sales of 4360 resale homes closed during the month of August in metro phoenix. It is not great numbers by any means, but I had some concern that there would be a lot of deals cancelled because of Jumbo loan sources drying up. The numbers are mediocre, but it was still good to see them stay over 4000 sales. I did some statistical modeling for september, and it looks like we may see about the same number, but possibly a little more. The AW/C numbers are not tested enough to tell if they will contribute to the current month totals, but over time we can get a better idea. I am hoping for a little bump in September. The mortgage mess is just one more psychological hurdle for buyers.
The Ryness report showed a little more disturbing trend last week; metro new home sales in Maricopa county showed a high percentage of cancellation; it makes sense in that core city new homes are typically more expensive than outlying areas, and jumbo loan financing availability has been a casualty of the mortgage crisis. The positive news was that Pinal Sales were okay, with relatively few cancellations. When homes are $130K-$200K, they are on average going to be more conforming type loans so they might not have as much trouble as the $400K plus market you see in chandler, Phoenix, and scottsdale. I do think that Pinal county and West Valley new homes are going to make resale homesellers miserable for a while, as there seems to be quite a disparity in the pricing in favor of buying a new home. I am thinking about selling my central phoenix home, and buying one in maricopa myself. As much time as I spend down there, it seems like a relative bargain.
One of my favorite areas in the metro phoenix area still seems to be doing well, and that is the little area commonly thought of as Hidden Valley southwest of Maricopa. It seems there are still many new custom homes going up in the area. It is odd to see the disparity in the asking prices of individual lots, as you will see pricing anywhere from $35K per acre to $70K an acre, and some even higher. There has to be opportunity for investors in there somewhere. Century Road is going to be a beautiful rural drive, with lovely views of the mountains to the west and south, and many nice homes going up in that corridor. Another pretty area is south of Stanfield, called high chaparral ranch. There are not a lot of small parcels available in here yet, but the area has stunning views and great landscape, right at the edge of Table Top Mountain Preserve, and you can see Casa Grande quite clearly, as the land sits a little higher. It is going to be a custom home area eventually.
I would appreciate any comments.
Best Prices on the Web - JustBlinds.com
The Ryness report showed a little more disturbing trend last week; metro new home sales in Maricopa county showed a high percentage of cancellation; it makes sense in that core city new homes are typically more expensive than outlying areas, and jumbo loan financing availability has been a casualty of the mortgage crisis. The positive news was that Pinal Sales were okay, with relatively few cancellations. When homes are $130K-$200K, they are on average going to be more conforming type loans so they might not have as much trouble as the $400K plus market you see in chandler, Phoenix, and scottsdale. I do think that Pinal county and West Valley new homes are going to make resale homesellers miserable for a while, as there seems to be quite a disparity in the pricing in favor of buying a new home. I am thinking about selling my central phoenix home, and buying one in maricopa myself. As much time as I spend down there, it seems like a relative bargain.
One of my favorite areas in the metro phoenix area still seems to be doing well, and that is the little area commonly thought of as Hidden Valley southwest of Maricopa. It seems there are still many new custom homes going up in the area. It is odd to see the disparity in the asking prices of individual lots, as you will see pricing anywhere from $35K per acre to $70K an acre, and some even higher. There has to be opportunity for investors in there somewhere. Century Road is going to be a beautiful rural drive, with lovely views of the mountains to the west and south, and many nice homes going up in that corridor. Another pretty area is south of Stanfield, called high chaparral ranch. There are not a lot of small parcels available in here yet, but the area has stunning views and great landscape, right at the edge of Table Top Mountain Preserve, and you can see Casa Grande quite clearly, as the land sits a little higher. It is going to be a custom home area eventually.
I would appreciate any comments.
Best Prices on the Web - JustBlinds.com
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