ARMLS STATS 9/13-9/19/10
Pending: 10,250
Pending Sfam: 8,840
AWC: 6,203
AWC: 5,319
Closed 9/13/-9/19: 1,452
Closed Sfam: 1,214
Closed Sept 19: 3,205
Closed Sfam: 2,668
Active: 38804
Active Sfam: 31,370
Closed August: 7,221
Closed Sfam: 6,070
I apologize for the hiatus; I have recently opened up an office again, and moving that, along with being fairly busy, caused this blog to lose its place in the pecking order.
MLS stats ending August were up slightly from July, but were generally flat, as we trudged through a slumping economy this summer. One bright spot might be that it appears short sales (as denoted by AWC contracts) are declining from their peak numbers approaching 8,100 in May. Banks are getting better at handling short sales, and it might be a sign that short sales may be on their way to winding down. The supply of short sale homes is an indication of market health, and as these dissipate, it shows less homeowners are experiencing economic distress. It is a number we will continue to watch, but it is generally a positive trend.
Less positive has been the gradual increase of inventory this summer. It has been a softer summer for sales, due to what we can now see as the economy having lost a lot of traction over the summer. The optimism of a clean turnaround early in the year gave way to the reality that employers were not yet hiring, and still aren't due to economic uncertainty. The fact that these tax hikes are still planned for job creators (the $250K+ income crowd) seems to have stunted hiring, and raised fears of renewed recession. It does seem like we have stabilized, but the continuing uncertainty is still restraining job growth. The republicans' expected sweep into power in the upcoming elections are probably the best hope for job creation, as gridlock has always fostered expansion. This was in retrospect an underperforming summer for housing. We will have to see if the fourth quarter brightens up, but the trend has been lackluster.
It does seem like homes at the lower end are firming up, while the higher priced move ups and luxury home market is still fairly stagnant. I think we will see it that way until we see some broad reasons for optimism from the economy: increased hiring, stock prices, stability.
We did see a surprise sharp jump in new housing starts in August, which I will detail next week. We might be where we are seeing lagging indicators now, and that the economy is turning up for more people than we realize, but it will still be 2011 before we have seen substantial gains in the housing market and likely fall to less than 9.5% unemployment.
I would expect that we will close in the neighborhood of 7000 homes in September. It is not a great number, but it will have to do for now. We didn't see it coming in, but there was a sharp fall off in buyers over the summer, due in part to the end of the tax credit, but also to the relatively difficult process of qualifying for a loan. Unless you were buying fannie mae or freddie mac or getting an FHA loan, you had to bring some serious cash to the table. This of course stunts closings.
The hope is that we can stay at current levels through the fall and into December. Those are traditionally very poor months, but if we see some stability through 4th quarter, economic factors will bring us into 2011 at a good pitch, and we are almost certainly going to see rising levels of optimism after elections this fall. Gridlock creates certainty, and that is proven to be the best case scenario for the economy in the past.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
ARMLS STATS FOR JULY
July ARMLS statistics August 3, 2010
Pending: 9,859
Pending Sfam: 8,481
AWC: 6,602
AWC SFAM: 5,640
Closed July: 7,100
Closed Sfam: 6,012
Active: 36,037
Active Sfam: 28,941
July numbers, as expected, were down considerably from June's peak. June's numbers pulled many sales forward, stripping them from July sales. Many sales of properties that were in line to receive the home buyer tax credit, especially short sales, had to be done in June, and as such there was great pressure to get them done by then. The hangover effect of this is pretty apparent in July's numbers. It is not unexpected, but I think that it appears that July was still weaker than expected. We will have to wait and see if this is a trend, but these are not numbers that I am happy with. We will want to see a rebound in Sales in August, but I would expect that we will not see over 8000 sales per month for the rest of the year, other than September.
New home sales might be a culprit in this as well. Builders have become very aggressive, and are able to compete on price pretty well. As people start comparing the available used to new inventory, new inventory starts to look decent, and builders success in selling has a negative effect on the prices of pre-existing inventory and the inventory itself. That being said I don't think that new home sales were so great that they affected existing sales this much. It was a bit of a slow month, I think, no way around that. We will want to see some pick up in August.
Pending: 9,859
Pending Sfam: 8,481
AWC: 6,602
AWC SFAM: 5,640
Closed July: 7,100
Closed Sfam: 6,012
Active: 36,037
Active Sfam: 28,941
July numbers, as expected, were down considerably from June's peak. June's numbers pulled many sales forward, stripping them from July sales. Many sales of properties that were in line to receive the home buyer tax credit, especially short sales, had to be done in June, and as such there was great pressure to get them done by then. The hangover effect of this is pretty apparent in July's numbers. It is not unexpected, but I think that it appears that July was still weaker than expected. We will have to wait and see if this is a trend, but these are not numbers that I am happy with. We will want to see a rebound in Sales in August, but I would expect that we will not see over 8000 sales per month for the rest of the year, other than September.
New home sales might be a culprit in this as well. Builders have become very aggressive, and are able to compete on price pretty well. As people start comparing the available used to new inventory, new inventory starts to look decent, and builders success in selling has a negative effect on the prices of pre-existing inventory and the inventory itself. That being said I don't think that new home sales were so great that they affected existing sales this much. It was a bit of a slow month, I think, no way around that. We will want to see some pick up in August.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
ARMLS STATS June 2010
****JUNE CLOSINGS HIT 9,310****
Biggest Sales Month since August 2005!
Inventory Flat and Pendings showing downward trend
Pending Sales: 10,477 ( -997 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 9,036 ( -862 from last week)
AWC: 7,303 ( -244 from last week)
AWC Single Fam: 6,258 (-213 from last week)
Closed 6/28-7/4 2,711 ( +792 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,333 ( +698 from last week)
Active: 34,226 ( -14 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,246 ( +65 from last week)
CLOSED JUNE: 9,310
Closed Single fam: 7893
June Sales finished stronger than expected, topping 9,000 decisively. June may be our peak for the year, as tax credit driven sales are now mostly used up. The sales numbers were excellent, however, and there have not been as many as 9300 sales since August of 2005, when there were 10,003 closed listings. That was the boom year, obviously, and the median price was literally twice what it is now, but we are showing good demand for home purchasing in the valley. Even if it falls off somewhat, we will be okay.
That said, I do expect that we will not maintain this level of sales through the summer. There is simply not going to be as strong of demand with the expiration of the housing credit and lackluster performance in the creation of jobs by industry; consumer confidence is not what it should be for a strong recovery to occur. Single family homes are also facing increasing competition from competitively priced new home sales. The builders are seeing opportunities again, and are working at taking their share of the market. My feeling is that we are going to go sideways a bit until job creation picks up. Business may not cooperate with this, until after the elections in the fall. I am not sure that we are seeing Business embrace the Democrats plan for them, and they take a wait and see approach hoping that a more business friendly congress is swept into office in November before making major investments in new hires. It is still a big question mark. What we have heard is that big business' coffers have never been more full, but so far they are not taking the plunge and investing it in new production.
I don't say that to be gloomy; this was not going to be a rocket to the moon recovery by any means. We as a metro area are growing, and so far we are absorbing the inventory pretty well. The average price of a home sold went up from May's $177,288 to $179,976 in June; it is also up from first quarter's $176,518; perhaps it is showing some movement in the upper end, pulling average prices higher. Certainly, the bulk of the activity is in the lower reaches of the market, which is why we see the median number going lower, but the gross dollar sales and the average are moving up, and that is something we should be encouraged about.
While the sales in June should be celebrated, the numbers that bear watching are the pending numbers. How far are they going to fall? What kind of activity are we going to have for the next three months, which are traditionally the last three strong months until march rolls around again? What are prices going to do? There are questions marks. We have 3.6 months supply of inventory, and it is stubbornly sticking there. It is not too high, but I don't know anyone in our industry who wouldn't like to see about 5000 listings peeled off there overnight; it would encourage higher prices and more construction.
We can be happy for the moment that we have reached a level of demand we haven't seen for almost five years. We have shown good consistent high demand this year, and it seems like it is going to continue. We have likely reached a short term peak for this year, but if we can stabilize not far below the levels we have been at, we are still going to have an excellent year.
Biggest Sales Month since August 2005!
Inventory Flat and Pendings showing downward trend
Pending Sales: 10,477 ( -997 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 9,036 ( -862 from last week)
AWC: 7,303 ( -244 from last week)
AWC Single Fam: 6,258 (-213 from last week)
Closed 6/28-7/4 2,711 ( +792 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,333 ( +698 from last week)
Active: 34,226 ( -14 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,246 ( +65 from last week)
CLOSED JUNE: 9,310
Closed Single fam: 7893
June Sales finished stronger than expected, topping 9,000 decisively. June may be our peak for the year, as tax credit driven sales are now mostly used up. The sales numbers were excellent, however, and there have not been as many as 9300 sales since August of 2005, when there were 10,003 closed listings. That was the boom year, obviously, and the median price was literally twice what it is now, but we are showing good demand for home purchasing in the valley. Even if it falls off somewhat, we will be okay.
That said, I do expect that we will not maintain this level of sales through the summer. There is simply not going to be as strong of demand with the expiration of the housing credit and lackluster performance in the creation of jobs by industry; consumer confidence is not what it should be for a strong recovery to occur. Single family homes are also facing increasing competition from competitively priced new home sales. The builders are seeing opportunities again, and are working at taking their share of the market. My feeling is that we are going to go sideways a bit until job creation picks up. Business may not cooperate with this, until after the elections in the fall. I am not sure that we are seeing Business embrace the Democrats plan for them, and they take a wait and see approach hoping that a more business friendly congress is swept into office in November before making major investments in new hires. It is still a big question mark. What we have heard is that big business' coffers have never been more full, but so far they are not taking the plunge and investing it in new production.
I don't say that to be gloomy; this was not going to be a rocket to the moon recovery by any means. We as a metro area are growing, and so far we are absorbing the inventory pretty well. The average price of a home sold went up from May's $177,288 to $179,976 in June; it is also up from first quarter's $176,518; perhaps it is showing some movement in the upper end, pulling average prices higher. Certainly, the bulk of the activity is in the lower reaches of the market, which is why we see the median number going lower, but the gross dollar sales and the average are moving up, and that is something we should be encouraged about.
While the sales in June should be celebrated, the numbers that bear watching are the pending numbers. How far are they going to fall? What kind of activity are we going to have for the next three months, which are traditionally the last three strong months until march rolls around again? What are prices going to do? There are questions marks. We have 3.6 months supply of inventory, and it is stubbornly sticking there. It is not too high, but I don't know anyone in our industry who wouldn't like to see about 5000 listings peeled off there overnight; it would encourage higher prices and more construction.
We can be happy for the moment that we have reached a level of demand we haven't seen for almost five years. We have shown good consistent high demand this year, and it seems like it is going to continue. We have likely reached a short term peak for this year, but if we can stabilize not far below the levels we have been at, we are still going to have an excellent year.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
MLS STATS 6/21-6/27/10
Sales closing in on 9000 for June
Inventory Rises in June, but new listings fall.
Pending: 11,474 down
Pending Sfam: 9,898 down
AWC: 7,547 down
AWC Single Fam: 6,471 down
Closed 6/21-6/27/10: 1919 Up
Closed Single Fam: 1,635 Up
Active Listings: 34,240 Up
Active Sfam: 27,181 Up
MTD CLOSED: 7,401
Single Fam Closed: 6,244
I apologize for missing a few weeks in the middle of the month; I am also a lot busier now, and some things just have to take a back seat. As we get closer to the end of the month we are getting a lot better picture of where we are headed. Some of them are good, some are mediocre.
MLS sales are going to post another decent month in June. I think it is likely we will reach 9000 sales, but we are not quite there yet. Prices are likely to have fallen a bit in June, after the increases in May, as the tax credit effect will fall off a bit. People anxious to get the tax credit were less likely to negotiate as hard if they were up against the wall to get their deal in place in April, most of which would have closed in May. It puffed up prices a bit at that point. We are anticipating a slight fall from that point.
I was a little taken aback by the rise in inventory; its not large but its big enough to take notice of. I don't like the idea that inventory is rising, but when I went deeper into the statistics, I found that new listings in June are actually lagging behind June '09, and still behind May'10, so I am not as concerned about it. In April there was a huge uptick in new listings over last year, and May showed a sizeable gain as well, so we are probably experiencing a little hangover from that. This June is showing a decrease so far, as inventory was probably frontloaded by the tax credit the same way sales were. It bears watching.
We have been seeing some flagging in the economy which has eroded consumer confidence to some degree, and will probably also affect housing. I would expect to see flat pricing throughout the summer, but also see continued strong demand for homes available at lower prices. The 0-200,000 range continues to be strong; the demand for upscale homes seem to be lagging to some degree.
I have been told by contacts in the home rental market that demand is very strong for rental homes, and supply is actually tight, which has been leading to stronger rental rates. I don't know if that is true valley wide, but it was a "boots on the ground" report from a fairly large rental agency. If you have any input or knowledge about this, I am all ears.
We are watching for home sales to cross over 9000 this month, which is very possible, but I am going to expect to see numbers fall slightly in July. The urgency of the tax credit is over, and I think buyers will bide their time while watching prices. This keeps some people on the sidelines, postponing their buying decisions, but i think that people who want a home will still be buying one.
Thanks for Reading!
Inventory Rises in June, but new listings fall.
Pending: 11,474 down
Pending Sfam: 9,898 down
AWC: 7,547 down
AWC Single Fam: 6,471 down
Closed 6/21-6/27/10: 1919 Up
Closed Single Fam: 1,635 Up
Active Listings: 34,240 Up
Active Sfam: 27,181 Up
MTD CLOSED: 7,401
Single Fam Closed: 6,244
I apologize for missing a few weeks in the middle of the month; I am also a lot busier now, and some things just have to take a back seat. As we get closer to the end of the month we are getting a lot better picture of where we are headed. Some of them are good, some are mediocre.
MLS sales are going to post another decent month in June. I think it is likely we will reach 9000 sales, but we are not quite there yet. Prices are likely to have fallen a bit in June, after the increases in May, as the tax credit effect will fall off a bit. People anxious to get the tax credit were less likely to negotiate as hard if they were up against the wall to get their deal in place in April, most of which would have closed in May. It puffed up prices a bit at that point. We are anticipating a slight fall from that point.
I was a little taken aback by the rise in inventory; its not large but its big enough to take notice of. I don't like the idea that inventory is rising, but when I went deeper into the statistics, I found that new listings in June are actually lagging behind June '09, and still behind May'10, so I am not as concerned about it. In April there was a huge uptick in new listings over last year, and May showed a sizeable gain as well, so we are probably experiencing a little hangover from that. This June is showing a decrease so far, as inventory was probably frontloaded by the tax credit the same way sales were. It bears watching.
We have been seeing some flagging in the economy which has eroded consumer confidence to some degree, and will probably also affect housing. I would expect to see flat pricing throughout the summer, but also see continued strong demand for homes available at lower prices. The 0-200,000 range continues to be strong; the demand for upscale homes seem to be lagging to some degree.
I have been told by contacts in the home rental market that demand is very strong for rental homes, and supply is actually tight, which has been leading to stronger rental rates. I don't know if that is true valley wide, but it was a "boots on the ground" report from a fairly large rental agency. If you have any input or knowledge about this, I am all ears.
We are watching for home sales to cross over 9000 this month, which is very possible, but I am going to expect to see numbers fall slightly in July. The urgency of the tax credit is over, and I think buyers will bide their time while watching prices. This keeps some people on the sidelines, postponing their buying decisions, but i think that people who want a home will still be buying one.
Thanks for Reading!
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
ARMLS STATS 6/8/2010
Inventory and Pendings Flat
June Sales off to a good start....
Pending: 12,521 (+5 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 10,756 ( +33 from last week)
AWC: 7,839 ( +78 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,734 ( +71 from last week)
Closed: 5/31-6/6 1,859 ( -841 from last week)
Closed Sfam 1,579 ( -723 from last week)
Active Listings: 33,192 ( +51 from last week)
Active Sfam: 26,210 ( +34 from last week)
New listings and pendings are flat after the first week of June, indicating we may have reached a short term equilibrium in the resale market. We are probably seeing as many home sales as the economy will allow for right now, but we are also seeing some evidence of a slow down in the amount of foreclosure activity. Only 37% of the closings in May were bank owned properties. That is down substantially from a year ago. Delinquencies on FHA loans nationally has been falling, according to the federal agency. Three months is enough to be a trend, so that is very encouraging.
We are also seeing stronger homebuilder numbers. This also has an effect on resales, as perhaps more than in the past year; first time buyers are buying new homes as builders begin slowly ramping up and offering incentives. This tends to blunt the sharp upward spike in resales-if a new home is available at the same price, some people are going to choose new homes, even if location is not as optimal as a resale. There is a balancing act there, and we definitely want to see new home sales occurring, even if it slows resales. In my own mind, we are getting close enough to "normal" levels of inventory and sales that I would want builders to jump in and start building again. Consumers want choices, and sometimes it requires the existence of an alternative to cause a buying action from a consumer-we don't need to be down to the last house on the market before builders should start building again. I will use a common fishing theme to illustrate my point. If you have ever fished for trout, you have probably drifted a nightcrawler in front of a fish many times where it shows complete disinterest. Finally you change to a miniscule little fly, and as soon as it is in range, wham! That fish is on it. Now, the juicy nightcrawler you threw out should have been more attractive to the fish, but the fish didn't think so.
Its the same with homebuyers- just because there are X amounts of resale homes sitting on the market at an attractive price, it doesn't mean they want one of those. They might have a completely different buying trigger. Builders need to have activity to create desire from buyers, and we are just starting to see that happening. Builders crank up subdivisions, and people start buying. I don't want to use the word demand-creative marketing, but I will. The picture has to be painted in their head of a beautiful home in a beautiful neighborhood that they come back to every day after a hard day's work. Its crucial for people buying new homes, the same way the consumer who is looking at buying a new Harley-Davidson might need to see the wind whipping through his or her hair, the open road twisting through the cool pines of the Black Hills as the faces of Mount Rushmore come into view. Empty subdivisions with 1 or 2 scattered homes in place in a ghost town subdivision does not inspire confidence or the image of the happy home life in buyers. Activity begets activity, and builders that are stepping up are beginning to take some buyers who previously might have purchased a resale.
We are hearing some national blogs that keep talking up a double dip in housing. I have no doubt we will have a choppy recovery in housing, but right now we are so far ahead of where we were, it is hard to imagine going back to the bottom. The underlying numbers are getting better- jobs, lower inventory numbers, median prices rising manageably, demographics- so I am not buying the substantial dip. We are in a relatively strong season for sales, and I think that will continue through the summer and into the fall. Most people do expect a stronger economic footing by the end of third quarter, and that will only further support the idea we will continue to return to normal here. The biggest problem we still have is actually a matter of perspective: pricing. If you purchased your home at a much higher price, then you are disappointed that prices are so low. If you are looking to buy a home, you should be a ecstatic about the lower pricing. We can't complain about inventory numbers, as they are not very high, buying activity is strong, interest rates are exceptional, the amount of foreclosure activity is receding-even with traditionally riskier FHA loans, so it really comes down to prices. Prices haven't recovered strongly yet, but they have beeing going up, and this gives new family formations a tremendous opportunity to participate in a rising market. Its all in your perspective, but the case can be made that even if prices slip somewhat, we are still in full recovery.
June Sales off to a good start....
Pending: 12,521 (+5 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 10,756 ( +33 from last week)
AWC: 7,839 ( +78 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,734 ( +71 from last week)
Closed: 5/31-6/6 1,859 ( -841 from last week)
Closed Sfam 1,579 ( -723 from last week)
Active Listings: 33,192 ( +51 from last week)
Active Sfam: 26,210 ( +34 from last week)
New listings and pendings are flat after the first week of June, indicating we may have reached a short term equilibrium in the resale market. We are probably seeing as many home sales as the economy will allow for right now, but we are also seeing some evidence of a slow down in the amount of foreclosure activity. Only 37% of the closings in May were bank owned properties. That is down substantially from a year ago. Delinquencies on FHA loans nationally has been falling, according to the federal agency. Three months is enough to be a trend, so that is very encouraging.
We are also seeing stronger homebuilder numbers. This also has an effect on resales, as perhaps more than in the past year; first time buyers are buying new homes as builders begin slowly ramping up and offering incentives. This tends to blunt the sharp upward spike in resales-if a new home is available at the same price, some people are going to choose new homes, even if location is not as optimal as a resale. There is a balancing act there, and we definitely want to see new home sales occurring, even if it slows resales. In my own mind, we are getting close enough to "normal" levels of inventory and sales that I would want builders to jump in and start building again. Consumers want choices, and sometimes it requires the existence of an alternative to cause a buying action from a consumer-we don't need to be down to the last house on the market before builders should start building again. I will use a common fishing theme to illustrate my point. If you have ever fished for trout, you have probably drifted a nightcrawler in front of a fish many times where it shows complete disinterest. Finally you change to a miniscule little fly, and as soon as it is in range, wham! That fish is on it. Now, the juicy nightcrawler you threw out should have been more attractive to the fish, but the fish didn't think so.
Its the same with homebuyers- just because there are X amounts of resale homes sitting on the market at an attractive price, it doesn't mean they want one of those. They might have a completely different buying trigger. Builders need to have activity to create desire from buyers, and we are just starting to see that happening. Builders crank up subdivisions, and people start buying. I don't want to use the word demand-creative marketing, but I will. The picture has to be painted in their head of a beautiful home in a beautiful neighborhood that they come back to every day after a hard day's work. Its crucial for people buying new homes, the same way the consumer who is looking at buying a new Harley-Davidson might need to see the wind whipping through his or her hair, the open road twisting through the cool pines of the Black Hills as the faces of Mount Rushmore come into view. Empty subdivisions with 1 or 2 scattered homes in place in a ghost town subdivision does not inspire confidence or the image of the happy home life in buyers. Activity begets activity, and builders that are stepping up are beginning to take some buyers who previously might have purchased a resale.
We are hearing some national blogs that keep talking up a double dip in housing. I have no doubt we will have a choppy recovery in housing, but right now we are so far ahead of where we were, it is hard to imagine going back to the bottom. The underlying numbers are getting better- jobs, lower inventory numbers, median prices rising manageably, demographics- so I am not buying the substantial dip. We are in a relatively strong season for sales, and I think that will continue through the summer and into the fall. Most people do expect a stronger economic footing by the end of third quarter, and that will only further support the idea we will continue to return to normal here. The biggest problem we still have is actually a matter of perspective: pricing. If you purchased your home at a much higher price, then you are disappointed that prices are so low. If you are looking to buy a home, you should be a ecstatic about the lower pricing. We can't complain about inventory numbers, as they are not very high, buying activity is strong, interest rates are exceptional, the amount of foreclosure activity is receding-even with traditionally riskier FHA loans, so it really comes down to prices. Prices haven't recovered strongly yet, but they have beeing going up, and this gives new family formations a tremendous opportunity to participate in a rising market. Its all in your perspective, but the case can be made that even if prices slip somewhat, we are still in full recovery.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
ARMLS STATS 6/1/2010
****Prelim May Sales: 9,166****
Median Price rises 1.56 % from April
Number of New Listings down sharply from April Influx
AWC numbers continue to slide- Short Sale Bottleneck opening up?
Pending: 12,516 ( -1664 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 10,723 ( -1441 from last week)
AWC: 7,761 ( -294 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,663 ( -232 from last week)
Closed: 2,700 ( +774 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,302 ( +658 from last week)
Active Listings: 33,141 ( -224 from last week)
Single Fam: 26,176 ( -115 from last week)
CLOSED MAY 2010: 9,166
Closed Single Fam: 7,763
Preliminary sales figures for May came in higher than projected. 9000 is purely a psychological number, but we did cross it. We are not going to have as many sales as we did in May 2009, but it is important to realize that the median price a year ago was only $119,000- lots of low priced, low end homes were being scooped up by investors at that time. That is still happening, but as I have documented in previous posts, the percentage of lender-owned sales and listings have fallen substantially. That seems to be backed up by this article. Their numbers are slightly different, as they probably include outside of MLS sales; they also are referring to single family sales only, I believe, but the idea is the same: there are less lender-owned sales, so more homes are being sold in which the property owner will need to find a new home, whether it is a rental or another sale. It will of course be both, but that is a far better situation than an empty home selling and not re-creating demand for housing somewhere else. It is more likely that homes sold through normal channels means that the seller will purchase another home somewhere else to live. The percentage of a lender-owned sales requiring another home to live in is zero, so you can see my point about it being categorically better, even if we don't know what the exact percentage of re-buying is occurring. 9166 is a good strong number, but we may have bumped up against the glass ceiling here. The economy is not strong enough, and price appreciation is not attractive enough to continue to see the kind of gains monthly we were used to. June should be a decent month, but probably down from April and May due to the wave of tax credit homebuyers petering out. We still have several strong months for sales ahead, and we are outpacing 2009 in number of closings by 9.8%. We are also ahead of last year's median price YTD by 5.5%, and ahead of overall dollar volume of sales by 15.1%. We should be very happy with these numbers, but I think we are all looking for that one big sign that tells us the slump is over. We are not going to get that sign; it is just going to happen as a process of there being more positive news than negative news.
As I alluded in the title, the median price of homes rose again in May, by 1.5%- $2,000- from $128000 to $130,000. It might not seem like a huge jump, but if we ran up the price 1.5% a month, that would be 18% per year gain. I don't think we will see that happen the same every month; it is likely to happen in fits and spurts, but price levels are really the most negative thing that can be said about the housing market.
The level of inventory has been flat for the last month, but we did see quite a few less new listings come on the market in May compared to April. In April, 14076 new listings were posted under residential in the MLS. In May, there were 11,396 new listings. Inventory levels are at a comfortable level, but we wouldn't mind seeing the inventory chewed up a bit more.
We are seeing some clearing of the AWC. Whether that is short sales happening quicker remains to be seen, but it is somewhat encouraging that that number is falling. I haven't done a lot of analysis on this yet, but next week I will probably have some more insights. I will do some research and see if this is the case, but it looks like it is.
One other thing that we heard about today was a strong pickup in construction spending across the board in April. This article at CNBC discusses manufacturing being up, but also this bit about new construction activity.
Median Price rises 1.56 % from April
Number of New Listings down sharply from April Influx
AWC numbers continue to slide- Short Sale Bottleneck opening up?
Pending: 12,516 ( -1664 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 10,723 ( -1441 from last week)
AWC: 7,761 ( -294 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,663 ( -232 from last week)
Closed: 2,700 ( +774 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,302 ( +658 from last week)
Active Listings: 33,141 ( -224 from last week)
Single Fam: 26,176 ( -115 from last week)
CLOSED MAY 2010: 9,166
Closed Single Fam: 7,763
Preliminary sales figures for May came in higher than projected. 9000 is purely a psychological number, but we did cross it. We are not going to have as many sales as we did in May 2009, but it is important to realize that the median price a year ago was only $119,000- lots of low priced, low end homes were being scooped up by investors at that time. That is still happening, but as I have documented in previous posts, the percentage of lender-owned sales and listings have fallen substantially. That seems to be backed up by this article. Their numbers are slightly different, as they probably include outside of MLS sales; they also are referring to single family sales only, I believe, but the idea is the same: there are less lender-owned sales, so more homes are being sold in which the property owner will need to find a new home, whether it is a rental or another sale. It will of course be both, but that is a far better situation than an empty home selling and not re-creating demand for housing somewhere else. It is more likely that homes sold through normal channels means that the seller will purchase another home somewhere else to live. The percentage of a lender-owned sales requiring another home to live in is zero, so you can see my point about it being categorically better, even if we don't know what the exact percentage of re-buying is occurring. 9166 is a good strong number, but we may have bumped up against the glass ceiling here. The economy is not strong enough, and price appreciation is not attractive enough to continue to see the kind of gains monthly we were used to. June should be a decent month, but probably down from April and May due to the wave of tax credit homebuyers petering out. We still have several strong months for sales ahead, and we are outpacing 2009 in number of closings by 9.8%. We are also ahead of last year's median price YTD by 5.5%, and ahead of overall dollar volume of sales by 15.1%. We should be very happy with these numbers, but I think we are all looking for that one big sign that tells us the slump is over. We are not going to get that sign; it is just going to happen as a process of there being more positive news than negative news.
As I alluded in the title, the median price of homes rose again in May, by 1.5%- $2,000- from $128000 to $130,000. It might not seem like a huge jump, but if we ran up the price 1.5% a month, that would be 18% per year gain. I don't think we will see that happen the same every month; it is likely to happen in fits and spurts, but price levels are really the most negative thing that can be said about the housing market.
The level of inventory has been flat for the last month, but we did see quite a few less new listings come on the market in May compared to April. In April, 14076 new listings were posted under residential in the MLS. In May, there were 11,396 new listings. Inventory levels are at a comfortable level, but we wouldn't mind seeing the inventory chewed up a bit more.
We are seeing some clearing of the AWC. Whether that is short sales happening quicker remains to be seen, but it is somewhat encouraging that that number is falling. I haven't done a lot of analysis on this yet, but next week I will probably have some more insights. I will do some research and see if this is the case, but it looks like it is.
One other thing that we heard about today was a strong pickup in construction spending across the board in April. This article at CNBC discusses manufacturing being up, but also this bit about new construction activity.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
ARMLS STATS May 25, 2010
Pendings Steady Through May
AWC down slightly- Short sales at their peak?
May Sales will approach 9000, but behind 2009 pace.
Pending: 14,180
Pending Sfam: 12,164
AWC: 8,055
AWC Sfam: 6,895
Closed 5/17-5/23: 1,926
Close Sfam: 1,644
Active: 33,365
Active Sfam: 26,291
Closed thru 5/23/2010: 5700
Closed Sfamily: 4,829
May is looking like its going to be a moderately successful month for home sales. We have been living with the expectation that sales will keep growing, but this might be the peak sales figures that the current economy will allow. Prices so far this month are up slightly from the last two months, from $128,000 to $130,000. The number of sales may not match April's number, however. We have a Holiday on the last day of the month, and logistically these sales slated for the last day of the month may slide to June.
Significantly, it appears that the last three months have shown people have become more hopeful about selling their home. The number of listings has risen compared to last year. Interestingly, these are not necessarily bank listings There was an article recently that addressed how people were putting their homes on the market this spring to try and sell to consumers who could take advantage of the homebuyer tax credit. It appears to be true, as listings were up substantially in March and April. May looks like it is going to be about the same as last year, maybe up slightly. The average list price, has been rising steadily, but modestly, after falling for the last few years. We may have reached a short term equilibrium in housing inventory, as it seems to be meandering within a range right now.
One of the encouraging things we are hearing nationally is that the percentage of bank sales of homes is retreating. Locally, that appears to be true also, as in May 2010, we have fallen below 39% of sales being lender owned. This is compared to the same period during May of 2009, during which 65.7 % of all sales were lender owned. This is significant, and shows progress. It is nowhere near normal, which is more like 2%, but its a trend in the right direction.
Inventory Issues
Currently, out of the 33,000+ listings, only 5,162 are listed as lender-owned. Really not the tidal wave we keep hearing about. I am sure there is a lot of shadow inventory, but it doesn't appear to be overwhelming the market. Of the nearly 10,000 new listings so far in May, 2118 are lender owned properties- 20-25%. Not a tidal wave, it seems. I am always more concerned about the short sale problem that manifests itself in the Active With Contingency category I report. There are 2144 new short sale listings so far in May- that is nearly 25% of the nearly 8900 homes listed as short sales. As long as people are trying to sell short sales, we will see bottlenecks in sales, as the process takes longer than average, even with the quicker process the banks are promising. They are certainly better than lender-owned sales, but its still a bit of a bronx cheer. I actually don't think short sales' impact has peaked yet. I think more people will try to take advantage of short sales, so it will linger until we start seeing bigger leaps forward in pricing. The banks are losing money every time one sells, and we want banks to be confident in lending going forward.
The trending in the Inventory numbers do look better as you dig into it- the inventory is a little bit flat right now, but its an acceptable level, and it seems like bank owned inventory is retreating.
Hopefully, this last week won't fall flat, but it appears May is going to be an okay month for sales. Sentiment does seem to be changing for the better, but we are going to have to see some solid months ahead to quiet the critics. The incredibly low interest rates and relatively flat pricing will help a lot, but we need to see stronger job growth in Arizona before we can claim to be out of the woods.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
APRIL 4/26-5/2-2010 ARMLS STATS
****April Sales Top 9200****
Inventory slides to 3.5 months current supply
Pendings still strong going into May
Pendings: 14,592 (+104 from 2 weeks ago)
Pendings SFam: 12,563 ( +104 from 2 weeks ago)
AWC: 8,075 ( +7 from 2 weeks ago)
AWC Sfam: 6,957 ( +4 from 2 weeks ago)
Closed 4/26-5/2 3,189 (+1229 from 2 weeks ago)
Closed SFam: 2,712 ( +1058 from 2 weeks ago)
Active Listings: 32,572 ( -1563 from two weeks ago)
Active Sfam: 25,510 ( -1061 from two weeks ago)
CLOSED: APRIL 2010: 9,284 (+803 from April'09)
(+352 from March'10)
Closed Sfam: 7,844
April sales finished very strong, and we surpassed 9000 sales. It was an improvement over both last April and March 2010. Pendings are still very high, even though we closed so many homes at the end of April. It is a very positive showing, and it means we are well set up for sales next month as well. There might be a leveling off in demand, as many of the first time homebuyers are already in contract, but there is also word that high end homes are selling quickly. "Paradise Valley Homes Selling like Hotcakes" (Biz Journal)
We are seeing signs of life throughout the industry now; homebuilders are buyin
g land, building permits are higher in the most attractive markets, like Gilbert and Chandler, and we are seeing demand for properties for the purpose of flipping. Inventory numbers are very tame, and are falling, despite a heavy dose of listings coming on the market in April. 3.5 months supply of homes is not a lot; this will change somewhat over the summer, as I do expect more listings to enter the market, but for now, the inventory is quite acceptably low. Take at look compared to last year's inventory numbers in the figure above. Inventory is lower. I would still guess that many of the homes that are selling are at the lower end, but we are seeing gains at different price levels.
g land, building permits are higher in the most attractive markets, like Gilbert and Chandler, and we are seeing demand for properties for the purpose of flipping. Inventory numbers are very tame, and are falling, despite a heavy dose of listings coming on the market in April. 3.5 months supply of homes is not a lot; this will change somewhat over the summer, as I do expect more listings to enter the market, but for now, the inventory is quite acceptably low. Take at look compared to last year's inventory numbers in the figure above. Inventory is lower. I would still guess that many of the homes that are selling are at the lower end, but we are seeing gains at different price levels. We look like we are solidly planted in a recovery in our real estate market, but much depends on jobs and how much optimism is generated by the recovery. So much of the value of real estate is tied to the psychology of our country's economic situation, and it has been very poor. The next quarter is going to tell us how far we have come, and whether there are any legs under this recovery. The early data for second quarter is showing stability in the market, but I will be much happier when I see the builders putting up houses in these vacant subdivisions.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Pendings Up Sharply in April
Inventory Falls Slightly
Short Sales continue to dominate listings and AWC.
Pending: 14,488 2 Weeks Ago: 13,590
Pending Sfam: 12,459 2 Weeks Ago: 11,783
AWC: 8,068 +347 from 4/6/2010
AWC Sfam: 6,953 +338 from 4/6/2010
Closed: 1,960
Closed Sfam: 1,654
Active: 34,135 -221 from 4/6/2010
Active: 26,751 -117 from 4/6/2010
Closed thru 4/18/2010: 4,200
Closed Sfam: 3,514
April is shaping up for a pretty good month. With 2 weeks left, we should cross over 8500 pretty easily, but will probably top 9000. I am not going to swear to it, as we have seen some volatile activity. It could also approach 9500- I am not entirely sure. Pendings have climbed sharply in the last few weeks- a lot of this is the result of pushing homes under the wire for the tax rebate, but we have general growth in demand as well. I won't address it today, but I am going to do an analysis on some submarkets, just to show how activity in neighborhoods has picked up substantially. The velocity of sales in places that are not first time homebuyer locations is a good gauge that its not only the tax rebate at work here.
Inventory is not falling at a rapid rate, as single family homes are still pushing onto the market at a high velocity. Short Sales now make up 13,847 of the 34,135 listings. Short sales simply spend too much time on the market, and the sooner lenders start allowing them to move, the quicker the housing market recovers. There are 8000+ homes that are short sales that are currently under some kind of contract that has not been accepted fully by the bank. They need to start expediting these sales.
Short Sales have accounted for only 806 of the 4200 sales so far in April. Lender owned properties have accounted for 1,619 of April sales. There are only 4869 lender listings. You do the math; they are willing to close out the properties they already own quickly, but are dragging their feet when it comes to helping their borrowers extricate themselves. If they have to take it back, they are simply going to get less for the house, with more costs. Its very short sighted on many banks part to not expedite this process.
Inventory Falls Slightly
Short Sales continue to dominate listings and AWC.
Pending: 14,488 2 Weeks Ago: 13,590
Pending Sfam: 12,459 2 Weeks Ago: 11,783
AWC: 8,068 +347 from 4/6/2010
AWC Sfam: 6,953 +338 from 4/6/2010
Closed: 1,960
Closed Sfam: 1,654
Active: 34,135 -221 from 4/6/2010
Active: 26,751 -117 from 4/6/2010
Closed thru 4/18/2010: 4,200
Closed Sfam: 3,514
April is shaping up for a pretty good month. With 2 weeks left, we should cross over 8500 pretty easily, but will probably top 9000. I am not going to swear to it, as we have seen some volatile activity. It could also approach 9500- I am not entirely sure. Pendings have climbed sharply in the last few weeks- a lot of this is the result of pushing homes under the wire for the tax rebate, but we have general growth in demand as well. I won't address it today, but I am going to do an analysis on some submarkets, just to show how activity in neighborhoods has picked up substantially. The velocity of sales in places that are not first time homebuyer locations is a good gauge that its not only the tax rebate at work here.
Inventory is not falling at a rapid rate, as single family homes are still pushing onto the market at a high velocity. Short Sales now make up 13,847 of the 34,135 listings. Short sales simply spend too much time on the market, and the sooner lenders start allowing them to move, the quicker the housing market recovers. There are 8000+ homes that are short sales that are currently under some kind of contract that has not been accepted fully by the bank. They need to start expediting these sales.
Short Sales have accounted for only 806 of the 4200 sales so far in April. Lender owned properties have accounted for 1,619 of April sales. There are only 4869 lender listings. You do the math; they are willing to close out the properties they already own quickly, but are dragging their feet when it comes to helping their borrowers extricate themselves. If they have to take it back, they are simply going to get less for the house, with more costs. Its very short sighted on many banks part to not expedite this process.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
ARMLS Stats- April 6, 2010
****March Sales: 9,005****
Pendings Fall Slightly, Short Sales continue to rise
Inventory: 3.8 month supply of homes on the market.
Median home price rises by $3,800 in March.
Pending Sales: 13,590 ( -328 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( -425 from last week)
AWC: 7,721 ( +69 from last week)
AWC SFam: 6,615 ( +54 from last week)
Closed 3/29-4/4 2,664 ( +840 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,235 ( +672 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,356 ( -443 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 26,868 ( -305 from last week)
March Closings: 9,005 (March 2009: 7562)
sMarch Sfam: 7,573
March sales finished very strong, just pushing us over the top of 9000. This exceeded March 2009 substantially, so we are still seeing good demand numbers. Some of this of course is the result of the tax rebate expiring in April, but demand strength is definitely widespread.
The Median price was up over February by $3800, and over March 2009 by $8K, so price gains are also substantial. Pending numbers are holding up very well, and we are likely to continue to post gains in pending sales. Short sales will hopefully start moving with the start of the short sale incentive to lenders and borrowers, as that statistic continues to climb. There are in excess of 6000 of these kind of contracts; they linger and clog inventory, and diminish what should be excellent demand. Instead of people buying a home right now, think of it as pushing that sale into next quarter, or maybe two quarters, as that is how long it takes to get through to a closed sale.
There is probably going to be a big build up in April and May due to the tax credit expiring, but there is usually a pretty strong build up in demand in these months anyway. I would expect to see some inventory come off the market, but really, at 3.8 months, inventory doesn't need to fall to see increases in prices.
I was just checking for fun due to a conversation I had with a client, and I noticed that 111 one million dollar+ homes sold in March. I don't follow that stat religiously, but I think the last time I checked it, it was in the high 60's, sometime in the last six months. That to me shows some strength in broader areas of the market than just first time buyers. We continue to get mixed messages from the media on where housing is going, but our local statistics are showing strong month to month gains in prices and volume from January and February. I think we are on a good path.
chris
Pendings Fall Slightly, Short Sales continue to rise
Inventory: 3.8 month supply of homes on the market.
Median home price rises by $3,800 in March.
Pending Sales: 13,590 ( -328 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( -425 from last week)
AWC: 7,721 ( +69 from last week)
AWC SFam: 6,615 ( +54 from last week)
Closed 3/29-4/4 2,664 ( +840 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,235 ( +672 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,356 ( -443 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 26,868 ( -305 from last week)
March Closings: 9,005 (March 2009: 7562)
sMarch Sfam: 7,573
March sales finished very strong, just pushing us over the top of 9000. This exceeded March 2009 substantially, so we are still seeing good demand numbers. Some of this of course is the result of the tax rebate expiring in April, but demand strength is definitely widespread.
The Median price was up over February by $3800, and over March 2009 by $8K, so price gains are also substantial. Pending numbers are holding up very well, and we are likely to continue to post gains in pending sales. Short sales will hopefully start moving with the start of the short sale incentive to lenders and borrowers, as that statistic continues to climb. There are in excess of 6000 of these kind of contracts; they linger and clog inventory, and diminish what should be excellent demand. Instead of people buying a home right now, think of it as pushing that sale into next quarter, or maybe two quarters, as that is how long it takes to get through to a closed sale.
There is probably going to be a big build up in April and May due to the tax credit expiring, but there is usually a pretty strong build up in demand in these months anyway. I would expect to see some inventory come off the market, but really, at 3.8 months, inventory doesn't need to fall to see increases in prices.
I was just checking for fun due to a conversation I had with a client, and I noticed that 111 one million dollar+ homes sold in March. I don't follow that stat religiously, but I think the last time I checked it, it was in the high 60's, sometime in the last six months. That to me shows some strength in broader areas of the market than just first time buyers. We continue to get mixed messages from the media on where housing is going, but our local statistics are showing strong month to month gains in prices and volume from January and February. I think we are on a good path.
chris
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
ARMLS STATS 3/30/2010
Pendings Rise; Listings Fall
March Closings to Outpace 2009 Handily
March 2010 prices up 6.2% from March 2009
Pending: 13,918 ( +253 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 12,208 ( +425 from last week)
AWC: 7,652 ( +139 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,561 ( +112 from last week)
CLOSED: 1,824 ( -33 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,563 ( -8 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,799 ( -227 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,173 (-196 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 6,930
Closed Sfam: 5,825
March 2009 Sales: 7,562
Pendings continue to show strength in demand for home sales in the ARMLS market area. We did reach over 14000 briefly last week. There are also upwards of 6500 AWC short sales- we don't know when those contracts will close, but they do show that some people are willing to wait for their sale to close, even if it takes months. It still must be considered demand, as someone wrote a contract.
There are some inside the numbers that I would like to focus on. I have heard constantly about the shadow inventory in Arizona for more than a year. We had a tidal wave coming last April. It never materialized, and we slashed inventory from unimaginable numbers down to where we are now- which is probably a normal level of inventory for the size of our market. Its hard to say for sure- we are seeing price gains moving at a signifcant level each month that might cause 25% annual price growth.
That growth rate is actually too high, but given that all real estate is drastically undervalued now, the rise could be attributed to the natural return to normalcy in pricing. I am going to say that we are just a little bit high in inventory level numbers, as I think prices should be rising even faster than what we are seeing them. Price levels of real estate assets is artificially depressed, and remain so only because people are not fully vested in our economy and the idea that life goes on, even after the financial meltdown. We will see some drastic price increases in the next year at some point, as people realize the value.
The median price gain from February to March is probably going to be a few thousand dollars- not a lot, but not inconsequential either. It is about $7000 higher than last March, which is significant. February was the balance point for median price- February of 2010 was $100 higher than last February- prior to that, the prices were lower than the previous year. We are showing year over year growth again.
Another number we rarely look at is the new listings category. March is one of the heaviest month for new listings-in 2009, it was the heaviest volume for new listings. This year is similar, although it looks like we might see just a few less listings in March. The number of sales in march will outpace 2009 by a significant amount, so the number of new listings isnt particularly scary. I will start keeping an eye on new inventory, but its not looking like its out of line at all. The statistics are starting show that we are likely in full recovery mode.
March Closings to Outpace 2009 Handily
March 2010 prices up 6.2% from March 2009
Pending: 13,918 ( +253 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 12,208 ( +425 from last week)
AWC: 7,652 ( +139 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,561 ( +112 from last week)
CLOSED: 1,824 ( -33 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,563 ( -8 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,799 ( -227 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,173 (-196 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 6,930
Closed Sfam: 5,825
March 2009 Sales: 7,562
Pendings continue to show strength in demand for home sales in the ARMLS market area. We did reach over 14000 briefly last week. There are also upwards of 6500 AWC short sales- we don't know when those contracts will close, but they do show that some people are willing to wait for their sale to close, even if it takes months. It still must be considered demand, as someone wrote a contract.
There are some inside the numbers that I would like to focus on. I have heard constantly about the shadow inventory in Arizona for more than a year. We had a tidal wave coming last April. It never materialized, and we slashed inventory from unimaginable numbers down to where we are now- which is probably a normal level of inventory for the size of our market. Its hard to say for sure- we are seeing price gains moving at a signifcant level each month that might cause 25% annual price growth.
That growth rate is actually too high, but given that all real estate is drastically undervalued now, the rise could be attributed to the natural return to normalcy in pricing. I am going to say that we are just a little bit high in inventory level numbers, as I think prices should be rising even faster than what we are seeing them. Price levels of real estate assets is artificially depressed, and remain so only because people are not fully vested in our economy and the idea that life goes on, even after the financial meltdown. We will see some drastic price increases in the next year at some point, as people realize the value.
The median price gain from February to March is probably going to be a few thousand dollars- not a lot, but not inconsequential either. It is about $7000 higher than last March, which is significant. February was the balance point for median price- February of 2010 was $100 higher than last February- prior to that, the prices were lower than the previous year. We are showing year over year growth again.
Another number we rarely look at is the new listings category. March is one of the heaviest month for new listings-in 2009, it was the heaviest volume for new listings. This year is similar, although it looks like we might see just a few less listings in March. The number of sales in march will outpace 2009 by a significant amount, so the number of new listings isnt particularly scary. I will start keeping an eye on new inventory, but its not looking like its out of line at all. The statistics are starting show that we are likely in full recovery mode.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Pendings Rise in March
Inventory Stays Flat
Short Sales make up most of the category of AWC.
March median price ahead of Feb. '10 median by $3K
Pending: 13,665 ( +1505 from three weeks ago)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( +1324 from three weeks ago)
AWC: 7,513 ( +516 from three weeks ago)
-Short sale: 6,619
AWC Sfam: 6,449 (+445 from three weeks ago)
-Short Sale: 5,667
Closed: 1,857 (N/A)
Closed Sfam: 1,571 (N/A)
Active Listings: 35,026 ( +72 from March 2)
Active Sfam: 27,369 (+39 from March 2)
Closed MTD (3/21): 5,036
Closed Sfam: 4,215
It has been a busy month, and I haven't had time to update, but there are a few things worth commenting about here. First off is that pendings are rising sharply as our seasonal demand picks up. Expect to see strong pending numbers through April, and then perhaps a flattening as the rush to utilize the tax credit expires. We are not likely to go down, as the strong summer months will carry us forward, but the April pendings could be exceptionally high.
Inventory has remained flat; we might have expected it to go down, but it has remained steady. February did not have substantially more listings on the market than 2009; in fact, only a 155. March was the largest listing month of 2009, and it maybe also this there. Pricing in March is also substantially ahead of March 2009, and steadily ahead of February 2010- 119K and $125K , respectively, to $128K for March 2010. A good indicator that inventory at this level is not going to lower prices.
I would expect inventory to have started to fall, so I have some concern, but overall, the numbers are fairly positive: we are going to have a decent month of sales in March, the inventory could be lower, but it is not terribly high, and we are seeing month over month median price gains. We also have pending sales growing substantially, and whille I am not a big fan of record numbers of short sale homes under contract, they are under contract, and they have to be thought of as pending sales to some degree. Starting April 5th, I believe, lenders will start getting some government payola to close short sales. I have a feeling that many of these short sales will start to close at a faster pace once banks are paid to close them.
Inventory Stays Flat
Short Sales make up most of the category of AWC.
March median price ahead of Feb. '10 median by $3K
Pending: 13,665 ( +1505 from three weeks ago)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( +1324 from three weeks ago)
AWC: 7,513 ( +516 from three weeks ago)
-Short sale: 6,619
AWC Sfam: 6,449 (+445 from three weeks ago)
-Short Sale: 5,667
Closed: 1,857 (N/A)
Closed Sfam: 1,571 (N/A)
Active Listings: 35,026 ( +72 from March 2)
Active Sfam: 27,369 (+39 from March 2)
Closed MTD (3/21): 5,036
Closed Sfam: 4,215
It has been a busy month, and I haven't had time to update, but there are a few things worth commenting about here. First off is that pendings are rising sharply as our seasonal demand picks up. Expect to see strong pending numbers through April, and then perhaps a flattening as the rush to utilize the tax credit expires. We are not likely to go down, as the strong summer months will carry us forward, but the April pendings could be exceptionally high.
Inventory has remained flat; we might have expected it to go down, but it has remained steady. February did not have substantially more listings on the market than 2009; in fact, only a 155. March was the largest listing month of 2009, and it maybe also this there. Pricing in March is also substantially ahead of March 2009, and steadily ahead of February 2010- 119K and $125K , respectively, to $128K for March 2010. A good indicator that inventory at this level is not going to lower prices.
I would expect inventory to have started to fall, so I have some concern, but overall, the numbers are fairly positive: we are going to have a decent month of sales in March, the inventory could be lower, but it is not terribly high, and we are seeing month over month median price gains. We also have pending sales growing substantially, and whille I am not a big fan of record numbers of short sale homes under contract, they are under contract, and they have to be thought of as pending sales to some degree. Starting April 5th, I believe, lenders will start getting some government payola to close short sales. I have a feeling that many of these short sales will start to close at a faster pace once banks are paid to close them.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
ARMLS STATISTICS FOR 2/22-2/28/10
February Closed: 6,635!
Pendings fall, end of month Sales Up sharply.
Active Listings Start to Fall.
Pending: 12,160 ( -679 from last week)
Pending SF: 10,459 ( -581 from last week)
AWC: 6,997 ( +16 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,004 ( +30 from last week)
Closed: 2,655 ( +1236 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,243 ( +1,053 from last week)
Active: 34,954 ( -211 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,369 ( -135 from last week)
CLOSED FEBRUARY: 6,635 (+873 from January)
Closed Sfam: 5,597 ( +668 from January)
February finished with a good sales total, as 6,635 properties listed in the MLS changed hands. The last week was especially strong, logging 2600+ sales. This was way ahead of last years pace, and is an improvement over January as well.
We are also starting to see our active listings start to fall. Last year through the middle of part of the year, we chewed up a lot of inventory. Our inventory grew some over the winter as seasonal sales slowed, but we are starting from a massively lower inventory level than we did at this time last year, and both our home sales and pending numbers point to a lot stronger sales year this year. Tuesday, March 3, 2009, there were 9,587 pending sales, substantially lower than the 12000+ of this year. Sales finished at 5,467 compared to the 6635 we had this year. There were 49000+ listings at this exact time last year, compared with 34,000 this year. We are starting the race with a smaller burden to carry this year, and if these sales numbers hold up, we will see inventory deteriorate rather quickly by the end of June, and probably see significant price gains in homes through the summer. There just isn't enough inventory for prices to continue to see downside risk in housing prices based on these statistics. Between March 3rd and June 1st of 2009, active inventory fell by 15000 units; I don't expect the same kind of fall this year; I expect rising interest rates and the fact that there is already less excess inventory will prevent a precipitous fall like last year, but we are going into an inventory depleting season. If we burn 4000 inventory units in march like we did last year, we are going to start seeing some prices rise substantially in 2nd quarter. We are already at 5.2 month of inventory in February; March sales will be substantially higher, and we could see ourselves pulling down to 4 months in a big hurry. Depending on how strong this trend is, we could see the door open for new homebuilders very soon. It is already looking like we are going to experience at least some seasonal shortages of inventory that will drive prices and competition on the most desirable homes. The banks might be hiding some more inventory out there, but I think we would have seen a lot more of it on the market by now.
The bit of news that I track that bothers me is the AWC contracts. This category used to denote the new contracts- that is not really the case any more, as short sales have been put in this category, and this number has risen to a massive level. Now it is not all bad; these are homes under contract to someone; the problem with them is we really don't have a clue as to when they might close, and it may take months. Think of it as a slow moving pending category with a lower completion rate. It is a picture of demand, as someone is trying to buy these things, but it is a clog in the line as we try to drain the excess inventory off. If the banks were smart, they would make these short sales happen faster.
I am also going to point out a few other areas that have impressed me. There is a submarket in Rio Verde between 136th and 160 where the number of active listings was 49 homes, but also had 29 homes pending. This had been a very strong 1 AC homesite area of upscale homes and pricey lots; it did fall on hard times. However, look at the trend. If the limited number of homes are selling quickly, as the pendings demonstrate, this is going to lead to increased prices, and more importantly to many, a demand for new homes to be built. We are also seeing lots moving fairly quickly in this area at lower prices, showing that people like this area. This will be an opening in the door for small builders, if they can get construction financing.
We are seeing a similar situation in Wittmann, although the land is not quite as rare, and the number of pendings not quite as high in relation to the number of listings, it still seems to be moving at very good velocity. These are two areas that I think the land prices will start to increase later this year as the available number of houses decreases.
We are entering the exciting time of the year for watching housing statistics, and I like that we are off with a running start in February. If March is a good month, we will have a lot to be optimistic about.
Pendings fall, end of month Sales Up sharply.
Active Listings Start to Fall.
Pending: 12,160 ( -679 from last week)
Pending SF: 10,459 ( -581 from last week)
AWC: 6,997 ( +16 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,004 ( +30 from last week)
Closed: 2,655 ( +1236 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,243 ( +1,053 from last week)
Active: 34,954 ( -211 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,369 ( -135 from last week)
CLOSED FEBRUARY: 6,635 (+873 from January)
Closed Sfam: 5,597 ( +668 from January)
February finished with a good sales total, as 6,635 properties listed in the MLS changed hands. The last week was especially strong, logging 2600+ sales. This was way ahead of last years pace, and is an improvement over January as well.
We are also starting to see our active listings start to fall. Last year through the middle of part of the year, we chewed up a lot of inventory. Our inventory grew some over the winter as seasonal sales slowed, but we are starting from a massively lower inventory level than we did at this time last year, and both our home sales and pending numbers point to a lot stronger sales year this year. Tuesday, March 3, 2009, there were 9,587 pending sales, substantially lower than the 12000+ of this year. Sales finished at 5,467 compared to the 6635 we had this year. There were 49000+ listings at this exact time last year, compared with 34,000 this year. We are starting the race with a smaller burden to carry this year, and if these sales numbers hold up, we will see inventory deteriorate rather quickly by the end of June, and probably see significant price gains in homes through the summer. There just isn't enough inventory for prices to continue to see downside risk in housing prices based on these statistics. Between March 3rd and June 1st of 2009, active inventory fell by 15000 units; I don't expect the same kind of fall this year; I expect rising interest rates and the fact that there is already less excess inventory will prevent a precipitous fall like last year, but we are going into an inventory depleting season. If we burn 4000 inventory units in march like we did last year, we are going to start seeing some prices rise substantially in 2nd quarter. We are already at 5.2 month of inventory in February; March sales will be substantially higher, and we could see ourselves pulling down to 4 months in a big hurry. Depending on how strong this trend is, we could see the door open for new homebuilders very soon. It is already looking like we are going to experience at least some seasonal shortages of inventory that will drive prices and competition on the most desirable homes. The banks might be hiding some more inventory out there, but I think we would have seen a lot more of it on the market by now.
The bit of news that I track that bothers me is the AWC contracts. This category used to denote the new contracts- that is not really the case any more, as short sales have been put in this category, and this number has risen to a massive level. Now it is not all bad; these are homes under contract to someone; the problem with them is we really don't have a clue as to when they might close, and it may take months. Think of it as a slow moving pending category with a lower completion rate. It is a picture of demand, as someone is trying to buy these things, but it is a clog in the line as we try to drain the excess inventory off. If the banks were smart, they would make these short sales happen faster.
I am also going to point out a few other areas that have impressed me. There is a submarket in Rio Verde between 136th and 160 where the number of active listings was 49 homes, but also had 29 homes pending. This had been a very strong 1 AC homesite area of upscale homes and pricey lots; it did fall on hard times. However, look at the trend. If the limited number of homes are selling quickly, as the pendings demonstrate, this is going to lead to increased prices, and more importantly to many, a demand for new homes to be built. We are also seeing lots moving fairly quickly in this area at lower prices, showing that people like this area. This will be an opening in the door for small builders, if they can get construction financing.
We are seeing a similar situation in Wittmann, although the land is not quite as rare, and the number of pendings not quite as high in relation to the number of listings, it still seems to be moving at very good velocity. These are two areas that I think the land prices will start to increase later this year as the available number of houses decreases.
We are entering the exciting time of the year for watching housing statistics, and I like that we are off with a running start in February. If March is a good month, we will have a lot to be optimistic about.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
ARMLS STATISTICS FOR 2/15/-2/21/10
Active Listings Fall
Pending Sales rising sharply
Pending: 12,839 ( +653 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,040 ( +571 from last week)
AWC: 6,975 ( +190 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,974 ( +163 from last week)
Closed: 1,419 ( +199 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,190 ( +99 from last week)
Active: 35,165 ( -216 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,504 ( -132 fron last week)
Closed Thru 2/21/2010: 3,926
Single Fam: 3,307
Pending sales continue to rise sharply, forecasting an excellent spring selling season in the resale market in Phoenix. Last year at this time there were 9,656 pending sales- there is a 33% increase over that number this year. February is going to be a typically light sales month, but I think we can reach 6000 sales. The last two days of the month are weekend days, so some sales may be pushed into March.
The other headline is that active listings fell, after rising fairly steadily through the winter. There is just sharper buying activity, and I think we can expect the number of sales to start falling consistently. Last year, the inventory was taken down swiftly; I don't know if it will happen that fast, as many people who would probably stay put are taking advantage of lenders willingness to allow short sales. This encourages more inventory, but I still think that the seasonal demand we experience will start slicing away at inventory for the next six months.
We are going to see just how steady this recovery why what happens over the next two quarters. So far, so good.
Pending Sales rising sharply
Pending: 12,839 ( +653 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,040 ( +571 from last week)
AWC: 6,975 ( +190 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,974 ( +163 from last week)
Closed: 1,419 ( +199 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,190 ( +99 from last week)
Active: 35,165 ( -216 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,504 ( -132 fron last week)
Closed Thru 2/21/2010: 3,926
Single Fam: 3,307
Pending sales continue to rise sharply, forecasting an excellent spring selling season in the resale market in Phoenix. Last year at this time there were 9,656 pending sales- there is a 33% increase over that number this year. February is going to be a typically light sales month, but I think we can reach 6000 sales. The last two days of the month are weekend days, so some sales may be pushed into March.
The other headline is that active listings fell, after rising fairly steadily through the winter. There is just sharper buying activity, and I think we can expect the number of sales to start falling consistently. Last year, the inventory was taken down swiftly; I don't know if it will happen that fast, as many people who would probably stay put are taking advantage of lenders willingness to allow short sales. This encourages more inventory, but I still think that the seasonal demand we experience will start slicing away at inventory for the next six months.
We are going to see just how steady this recovery why what happens over the next two quarters. So far, so good.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
ARMLS STATISTICS FOR 2/08/-2/14/10
Inventory Inches Up....
Pendings and Sales make solid gains.
Short Sales still blowing up the AWC stats.
Pending: 12,186 ( +349 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,469 ( +299 from last week)
AWC: 6,785 ( +163 from last week)
AWC SFam: 5,811 (+143 from last week)
Closed: 1,292 ( +155 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,091 ( +135 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,381 ( +192 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,636 ( +66 from last week)
February statistics continue to show solid gains in buyer activity, but listing activity remains strong. Short sales make up a solid bit of the inventory, but also buying activity, as attested to by the number of Active With contingencies. There are 5 times as many active with contingencies as there were this time last year. Short sales make up 6,053 of these AWC contracts. They are still contracts, but they do take longer to close. Short sales also account for 9,340 of the 35K+ listings as well. Short sales are really the plug in the bottle right now. As they move quicker, so will the market. February sales are likely to be mediocre, but March should be very good, as the numbers are building nicely. I even an anecdote regarding a home sale that shows there is getting to be increased buying activity. I just yesterday wrote an offer for a client on a condo that had been on the market for all of 9 days, and to our chagrine we discovered that the seller was already choosing among several highest and best offers it had received for the property. This was a home with no appliances in it....there is some demand showing, and I think it foretells for a very good spring.
There was also an article out today that I found very interesting regarding lot purchases. Good to see the buying activity among the builders.
Pendings and Sales make solid gains.
Short Sales still blowing up the AWC stats.
Pending: 12,186 ( +349 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,469 ( +299 from last week)
AWC: 6,785 ( +163 from last week)
AWC SFam: 5,811 (+143 from last week)
Closed: 1,292 ( +155 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,091 ( +135 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,381 ( +192 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,636 ( +66 from last week)
February statistics continue to show solid gains in buyer activity, but listing activity remains strong. Short sales make up a solid bit of the inventory, but also buying activity, as attested to by the number of Active With contingencies. There are 5 times as many active with contingencies as there were this time last year. Short sales make up 6,053 of these AWC contracts. They are still contracts, but they do take longer to close. Short sales also account for 9,340 of the 35K+ listings as well. Short sales are really the plug in the bottle right now. As they move quicker, so will the market. February sales are likely to be mediocre, but March should be very good, as the numbers are building nicely. I even an anecdote regarding a home sale that shows there is getting to be increased buying activity. I just yesterday wrote an offer for a client on a condo that had been on the market for all of 9 days, and to our chagrine we discovered that the seller was already choosing among several highest and best offers it had received for the property. This was a home with no appliances in it....there is some demand showing, and I think it foretells for a very good spring.
There was also an article out today that I found very interesting regarding lot purchases. Good to see the buying activity among the builders.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
ARMLS STATS Week of 2/10/10
Buying Activity Rising, Pendings Up Sharply
Actives Rise slightly
Spring Homebuying season about to begin?
Pending: 11,837 ( +1,054 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,170 ( +900 from last week)
AWC: 6,622 ( +296 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,668 ( +249 from last week)
Closed: 1,137 ( -921 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 956 ( -818 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,189 (+384 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,570 (+273 from last week)
The number of pendings rose sharply, indicating buyer activity is leaving the winter doldrums behind. The number is well below its 2009 highs, but certainly higher than during the same week last year (8445), and if you include the eventual pending sales of the active with contingency contracts, the buying activity is much sharper.
The amount of sales being slower is of course expected, as the first week of the month is typically much less than the last week, but is approximately 20% higher than last February of the same period. February won't be a great month for sales, but you do see sales building for March. I am expecting that we will see pending sales continue to grow toward 13,000 by the end of the month.
It is still too early to tell how strong this year's recovery will be, but the early results are encouraging. We have had growing inventory for quite a few months now, but that will likely peak out here in February. It had already started falling by this time last year. It is something that we will have to watch, as an overly strong supply of resale homes can damper the prices that we would all like to see continue to climb. I do think we will see the inventory fall through the spring at this point. The general demand looks to be higher this year, and we may not see as many homes coming on the market either. We may see short sales start to slide through the process quicker too, as banks have become better at processing these. As of now, the AWC contracts that contain short sales keeps climbing and I expect it to pass 7000. There are still many many short sales waiting to happen. That is mixed news, as you like to see real sales that occur quickly, but most of those do eventually turn into sales.
Actives Rise slightly
Spring Homebuying season about to begin?
Pending: 11,837 ( +1,054 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,170 ( +900 from last week)
AWC: 6,622 ( +296 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,668 ( +249 from last week)
Closed: 1,137 ( -921 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 956 ( -818 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,189 (+384 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,570 (+273 from last week)
The number of pendings rose sharply, indicating buyer activity is leaving the winter doldrums behind. The number is well below its 2009 highs, but certainly higher than during the same week last year (8445), and if you include the eventual pending sales of the active with contingency contracts, the buying activity is much sharper.
The amount of sales being slower is of course expected, as the first week of the month is typically much less than the last week, but is approximately 20% higher than last February of the same period. February won't be a great month for sales, but you do see sales building for March. I am expecting that we will see pending sales continue to grow toward 13,000 by the end of the month.
It is still too early to tell how strong this year's recovery will be, but the early results are encouraging. We have had growing inventory for quite a few months now, but that will likely peak out here in February. It had already started falling by this time last year. It is something that we will have to watch, as an overly strong supply of resale homes can damper the prices that we would all like to see continue to climb. I do think we will see the inventory fall through the spring at this point. The general demand looks to be higher this year, and we may not see as many homes coming on the market either. We may see short sales start to slide through the process quicker too, as banks have become better at processing these. As of now, the AWC contracts that contain short sales keeps climbing and I expect it to pass 7000. There are still many many short sales waiting to happen. That is mixed news, as you like to see real sales that occur quickly, but most of those do eventually turn into sales.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
ARMLS STATISTICS FOR 2/2/2010
January Sales: 5,820
Pendings Rose through January
A look at last January's Statistics
Pendings Rose through January
A look at last January's Statistics
Pending: 10,783
Pending SF: 9,270
AWC: 6,326
AWC SF: 5,439
CLOSED: 2,058
Closed Sf: 1,774
Active: 34,805
Active SingleFam: 27,297
Closed January: 5,820
Closed Single Fam: 4,988
This was your typical January: sales slow, inventory rises, pending sales start to show life, and everyone gets in a tizzy about how the market is about to collapse again. Don't be fooled by the short term aspects of home sales in January. January is a dormancy month, always has been, always will be. Also, you will note that pending sales have risen from the earlier part of the month, even though there was a pretty big last week of sales accounting for much of the activity. Why is that relevant? We don't have numbers from last week, but typically pending sales tend to fall after the end of the month sales report as many pendings convert to sales. Even with this normal drop, the pendings are growing from the earlier part of the month. That is a sign of demand strength as we climb out of the winter doldrums.
Lets look at last 
year's statistics:
year's statistics: We are 25% higher in pending sales, 600% higher in AWC contracts (a mixed blessing, but a contract is a contract), and down 33% in the number of listings. Closings were 20% higher as well. We are in far better shape than we were last year at this time. We can already project higher sales for February and March due to the larger number of pendings and AWC we are starting with. We won't know how well we are doing until late February, but I do expect to see pendings climbing by that time. Where inventory will be is another matter. We seemed to have hit a wall in inventory in late summer last year, but we are going into an inventory shredding portion of the year; I don't know if inventory levels will fall as far as they did last year. Prices do seem to have stabilized and even started to inch upward at this inventory level, so if inventory starts to fall significantly in the spring, we could see prices rise. We just don't know how many foreclosures are still out there. There are some, but are they going to be a significant segment of available inventory? That is the big question. I think we will shed some inventory over the summer, perhaps falling below 30,000 homes again, but I think that might our "normal" level of inventory. We will just have to watch it play out.
So, there is a lot of reason to be optimistic going into the spring, as sales should start to increase, and the inventory level is at very manageable numbers right now. They should start to decline a bit by March, and if we do, we can expect prices to start to rise in a substantial manner. This will lead to some restored confidence in the housing market, which will bring new buyers in as well. The trending is actually pretty good for us to have a decent year.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
ARMLS STATS 1/11/2010
2009 Sales Top 92,000 Closings
PENDING: 10,125
Pending Single Fam: 8,823
AWC: 5,955
AWC Sfam: 5,140
Closed: 1,029
Closed Sfam: 881
CLOSED 2009: 92,336
Closed Sfam: 81,425
Active: 34,199
Active Sfam: 26,756
Activity is very slow during the first few weeks of January, so not much to report. The most interesting thing is that we topped 92,000 sales in 2009. Here are the annual sales in the last decade:
2000: 55,400
2001: 62,523
2002: 68,411
2003: 79,512
2004: 98,294
2005: 104,133
2006: 74,106
2007: 54,231
2008: 59,233
2009: 92,336
One could look at this and say 2009 was the third best month of the decade, and that obviously isn't true. The sales were there, but of course the prices were much lower. It is encouraging that people have faith in the market, and are buying. We have had a massive deflation, not just in real estate, so we have to keep that in mind. Food prices have been falling, your cost of buying consumer electronics falls all the time, the price of clothing has come down substantially as suppliers have had to accept less profit, and the price of furnishings has decreased. Energy prices have fallen from their peak, but they have been rising again. Unfortunately, your fees and taxes have gone up, please remember to thank your elected officials....By and large though, Home prices have fallen along with everything else, and in addition slipped further due to its falling out of favor (temporarily) as an asset class. That will change, as it is a necessity none of us can do without.
The point is, we have had a very good year for sales; prices may not be there yet, but we at least have demand for the inventory that is there. We still have a great situation in this state- fine weather, a growing diversity in our economy, fairly good infrastructure, and proximity and one might say ground zero for the population migration of the baby boomers. There is much to be optimistic about, but we are just not out of the woods yet on the housing issues, as the financial crisis ruined the trust relationships banks and business had. Banks won't lend, businesses won't expand because they are afraid of the economy. We are still working through this, and may be well through 2010. It will be interesting where we are in March in terms of demand for housing; it is going to give us a good indication of the speed of sales recovery for the rest of the year.
PENDING: 10,125
Pending Single Fam: 8,823
AWC: 5,955
AWC Sfam: 5,140
Closed: 1,029
Closed Sfam: 881
CLOSED 2009: 92,336
Closed Sfam: 81,425
Active: 34,199
Active Sfam: 26,756
Activity is very slow during the first few weeks of January, so not much to report. The most interesting thing is that we topped 92,000 sales in 2009. Here are the annual sales in the last decade:
2000: 55,400
2001: 62,523
2002: 68,411
2003: 79,512
2004: 98,294
2005: 104,133
2006: 74,106
2007: 54,231
2008: 59,233
2009: 92,336
One could look at this and say 2009 was the third best month of the decade, and that obviously isn't true. The sales were there, but of course the prices were much lower. It is encouraging that people have faith in the market, and are buying. We have had a massive deflation, not just in real estate, so we have to keep that in mind. Food prices have been falling, your cost of buying consumer electronics falls all the time, the price of clothing has come down substantially as suppliers have had to accept less profit, and the price of furnishings has decreased. Energy prices have fallen from their peak, but they have been rising again. Unfortunately, your fees and taxes have gone up, please remember to thank your elected officials....By and large though, Home prices have fallen along with everything else, and in addition slipped further due to its falling out of favor (temporarily) as an asset class. That will change, as it is a necessity none of us can do without.
The point is, we have had a very good year for sales; prices may not be there yet, but we at least have demand for the inventory that is there. We still have a great situation in this state- fine weather, a growing diversity in our economy, fairly good infrastructure, and proximity and one might say ground zero for the population migration of the baby boomers. There is much to be optimistic about, but we are just not out of the woods yet on the housing issues, as the financial crisis ruined the trust relationships banks and business had. Banks won't lend, businesses won't expand because they are afraid of the economy. We are still working through this, and may be well through 2010. It will be interesting where we are in March in terms of demand for housing; it is going to give us a good indication of the speed of sales recovery for the rest of the year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)