Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Pendings Up Sharply in April
Inventory Falls Slightly
Short Sales continue to dominate listings and AWC.

Pending: 14,488 2 Weeks Ago: 13,590
Pending Sfam: 12,459 2 Weeks Ago: 11,783

AWC: 8,068 +347 from 4/6/2010
AWC Sfam: 6,953 +338 from 4/6/2010

Closed: 1,960
Closed Sfam: 1,654

Active: 34,135 -221 from 4/6/2010
Active: 26,751 -117 from 4/6/2010

Closed thru 4/18/2010: 4,200
Closed Sfam: 3,514

April is shaping up for a pretty good month. With 2 weeks left, we should cross over 8500 pretty easily, but will probably top 9000. I am not going to swear to it, as we have seen some volatile activity. It could also approach 9500- I am not entirely sure. Pendings have climbed sharply in the last few weeks- a lot of this is the result of pushing homes under the wire for the tax rebate, but we have general growth in demand as well. I won't address it today, but I am going to do an analysis on some submarkets, just to show how activity in neighborhoods has picked up substantially. The velocity of sales in places that are not first time homebuyer locations is a good gauge that its not only the tax rebate at work here.

Inventory is not falling at a rapid rate, as single family homes are still pushing onto the market at a high velocity. Short Sales now make up 13,847 of the 34,135 listings. Short sales simply spend too much time on the market, and the sooner lenders start allowing them to move, the quicker the housing market recovers. There are 8000+ homes that are short sales that are currently under some kind of contract that has not been accepted fully by the bank. They need to start expediting these sales.

Short Sales have accounted for only 806 of the 4200 sales so far in April. Lender owned properties have accounted for 1,619 of April sales. There are only 4869 lender listings. You do the math; they are willing to close out the properties they already own quickly, but are dragging their feet when it comes to helping their borrowers extricate themselves. If they have to take it back, they are simply going to get less for the house, with more costs. Its very short sighted on many banks part to not expedite this process.

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