ARMLS STATS 3/30/2010

Pendings Rise; Listings Fall
March Closings to Outpace 2009 Handily
March 2010 prices up 6.2% from March 2009


Pending: 13,918 ( +253 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 12,208 ( +425 from last week)

AWC: 7,652 ( +139 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,561 ( +112 from last week)

CLOSED: 1,824 ( -33 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,563 ( -8 from last week)

Active Listings: 34,799 ( -227 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,173 (-196 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 6,930
Closed Sfam: 5,825

March 2009 Sales: 7,562

Pendings continue to show strength in demand for home sales in the ARMLS market area. We did reach over 14000 briefly last week. There are also upwards of 6500 AWC short sales- we don't know when those contracts will close, but they do show that some people are willing to wait for their sale to close, even if it takes months. It still must be considered demand, as someone wrote a contract.

There are some inside the numbers that I would like to focus on. I have heard constantly about the shadow inventory in Arizona for more than a year. We had a tidal wave coming last April. It never materialized, and we slashed inventory from unimaginable numbers down to where we are now- which is probably a normal level of inventory for the size of our market. Its hard to say for sure- we are seeing price gains moving at a signifcant level each month that might cause 25% annual price growth.

That growth rate is actually too high, but given that all real estate is drastically undervalued now, the rise could be attributed to the natural return to normalcy in pricing. I am going to say that we are just a little bit high in inventory level numbers, as I think prices should be rising even faster than what we are seeing them. Price levels of real estate assets is artificially depressed, and remain so only because people are not fully vested in our economy and the idea that life goes on, even after the financial meltdown. We will see some drastic price increases in the next year at some point, as people realize the value.

The median price gain from February to March is probably going to be a few thousand dollars- not a lot, but not inconsequential either. It is about $7000 higher than last March, which is significant. February was the balance point for median price- February of 2010 was $100 higher than last February- prior to that, the prices were lower than the previous year. We are showing year over year growth again.

Another number we rarely look at is the new listings category. March is one of the heaviest month for new listings-in 2009, it was the heaviest volume for new listings. This year is similar, although it looks like we might see just a few less listings in March. The number of sales in march will outpace 2009 by a significant amount, so the number of new listings isnt particularly scary. I will start keeping an eye on new inventory, but its not looking like its out of line at all. The statistics are starting show that we are likely in full recovery mode.