February Closed: 6,635!
Pendings fall, end of month Sales Up sharply.
Active Listings Start to Fall.
Pending: 12,160 ( -679 from last week)
Pending SF: 10,459 ( -581 from last week)
AWC: 6,997 ( +16 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,004 ( +30 from last week)
Closed: 2,655 ( +1236 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,243 ( +1,053 from last week)
Active: 34,954 ( -211 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,369 ( -135 from last week)
CLOSED FEBRUARY: 6,635 (+873 from January)
Closed Sfam: 5,597 ( +668 from January)
February finished with a good sales total, as 6,635 properties listed in the MLS changed hands. The last week was especially strong, logging 2600+ sales. This was way ahead of last years pace, and is an improvement over January as well.
We are also starting to see our active listings start to fall. Last year through the middle of part of the year, we chewed up a lot of inventory. Our inventory grew some over the winter as seasonal sales slowed, but we are starting from a massively lower inventory level than we did at this time last year, and both our home sales and pending numbers point to a lot stronger sales year this year. Tuesday, March 3, 2009, there were 9,587 pending sales, substantially lower than the 12000+ of this year. Sales finished at 5,467 compared to the 6635 we had this year. There were 49000+ listings at this exact time last year, compared with 34,000 this year. We are starting the race with a smaller burden to carry this year, and if these sales numbers hold up, we will see inventory deteriorate rather quickly by the end of June, and probably see significant price gains in homes through the summer. There just isn't enough inventory for prices to continue to see downside risk in housing prices based on these statistics. Between March 3rd and June 1st of 2009, active inventory fell by 15000 units; I don't expect the same kind of fall this year; I expect rising interest rates and the fact that there is already less excess inventory will prevent a precipitous fall like last year, but we are going into an inventory depleting season. If we burn 4000 inventory units in march like we did last year, we are going to start seeing some prices rise substantially in 2nd quarter. We are already at 5.2 month of inventory in February; March sales will be substantially higher, and we could see ourselves pulling down to 4 months in a big hurry. Depending on how strong this trend is, we could see the door open for new homebuilders very soon. It is already looking like we are going to experience at least some seasonal shortages of inventory that will drive prices and competition on the most desirable homes. The banks might be hiding some more inventory out there, but I think we would have seen a lot more of it on the market by now.
The bit of news that I track that bothers me is the AWC contracts. This category used to denote the new contracts- that is not really the case any more, as short sales have been put in this category, and this number has risen to a massive level. Now it is not all bad; these are homes under contract to someone; the problem with them is we really don't have a clue as to when they might close, and it may take months. Think of it as a slow moving pending category with a lower completion rate. It is a picture of demand, as someone is trying to buy these things, but it is a clog in the line as we try to drain the excess inventory off. If the banks were smart, they would make these short sales happen faster.
I am also going to point out a few other areas that have impressed me. There is a submarket in Rio Verde between 136th and 160 where the number of active listings was 49 homes, but also had 29 homes pending. This had been a very strong 1 AC homesite area of upscale homes and pricey lots; it did fall on hard times. However, look at the trend. If the limited number of homes are selling quickly, as the pendings demonstrate, this is going to lead to increased prices, and more importantly to many, a demand for new homes to be built. We are also seeing lots moving fairly quickly in this area at lower prices, showing that people like this area. This will be an opening in the door for small builders, if they can get construction financing.
We are seeing a similar situation in Wittmann, although the land is not quite as rare, and the number of pendings not quite as high in relation to the number of listings, it still seems to be moving at very good velocity. These are two areas that I think the land prices will start to increase later this year as the available number of houses decreases.
We are entering the exciting time of the year for watching housing statistics, and I like that we are off with a running start in February. If March is a good month, we will have a lot to be optimistic about.
No comments:
Post a Comment