MLS STATS 6/21-6/27/10

Sales closing in on 9000 for June
Inventory Rises in June, but new listings fall.

Pending: 11,474 down
Pending Sfam: 9,898 down

AWC: 7,547 down
AWC Single Fam: 6,471 down

Closed 6/21-6/27/10: 1919 Up
Closed Single Fam: 1,635 Up

Active Listings: 34,240 Up
Active Sfam: 27,181 Up

MTD CLOSED: 7,401
Single Fam Closed: 6,244


I apologize for missing a few weeks in the middle of the month; I am also a lot busier now, and some things just have to take a back seat. As we get closer to the end of the month we are getting a lot better picture of where we are headed. Some of them are good, some are mediocre.

MLS sales are going to post another decent month in June. I think it is likely we will reach 9000 sales, but we are not quite there yet. Prices are likely to have fallen a bit in June, after the increases in May, as the tax credit effect will fall off a bit. People anxious to get the tax credit were less likely to negotiate as hard if they were up against the wall to get their deal in place in April, most of which would have closed in May. It puffed up prices a bit at that point. We are anticipating a slight fall from that point.

I was a little taken aback by the rise in inventory; its not large but its big enough to take notice of. I don't like the idea that inventory is rising, but when I went deeper into the statistics, I found that new listings in June are actually lagging behind June '09, and still behind May'10, so I am not as concerned about it. In April there was a huge uptick in new listings over last year, and May showed a sizeable gain as well, so we are probably experiencing a little hangover from that. This June is showing a decrease so far, as inventory was probably frontloaded by the tax credit the same way sales were. It bears watching.

We have been seeing some flagging in the economy which has eroded consumer confidence to some degree, and will probably also affect housing. I would expect to see flat pricing throughout the summer, but also see continued strong demand for homes available at lower prices. The 0-200,000 range continues to be strong; the demand for upscale homes seem to be lagging to some degree.

I have been told by contacts in the home rental market that demand is very strong for rental homes, and supply is actually tight, which has been leading to stronger rental rates. I don't know if that is true valley wide, but it was a "boots on the ground" report from a fairly large rental agency. If you have any input or knowledge about this, I am all ears.

We are watching for home sales to cross over 9000 this month, which is very possible, but I am going to expect to see numbers fall slightly in July. The urgency of the tax credit is over, and I think buyers will bide their time while watching prices. This keeps some people on the sidelines, postponing their buying decisions, but i think that people who want a home will still be buying one.

Thanks for Reading!