Weekly Sales Strong, Inventory Rises, Pendings Fall
PENDING SALES: 7014 ( -405 from last week)
Active W/ Contingency Contracts: 1041 (-19 from last week)
Closed Escrows (9.22- 9.28/08): 1,557 ( +76 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,743 ( +327 from last week)
Closed MTD through 9/22/08) 4,974
Single Family Stats
Pending: 6,274 ( -406 from last week)
Active Listings: 43,255 ( +271 from last week)
Closed 9.22-9.28: 1,428 ( +94 from last week)
Closed MTD (9/28) 4,517
We had a very nice week for sales again, and it is pointing to an excellent end of the month. We have an outside chance of this being the best month of the year, actually, but it would require a very strong last day of sales. My guess is that it will fall short, but the fact that we are talking about it is very encouraging.
What is less encouraging is the stubborn amount of listings. We really need to see that number start going down, and while I expect it to drop after the last day of the month, it has climbed back up to a big enough number that I don't expect to see it in the 50,000's this month; it may now not even reach back to the 51,000's. There is simply too much inventory.
Lest it be a problem with the overall inventory, including condos and the few timeshares, etc that show up in the bulk listings, the active listings for single family also remains high, and climbed significantly over the last two weeks. I do expect it to retrace at the end of the month, but the downward momentum seems to be gone. We have certainly come substantially off of our high inventory levels, but we seem to be bumping along here now. It is very important that we start showing some signs that the inventory is decreasing, or the price levels of homes will continue downward. If prices keep falling, then it chases buyers out of the market as they wait for the bottom.
I will try to do an update later in the week addressing the end of the month sales. I am really curious to see how this plays out today. It would be exceptional if we got to 6000 sales this month, but it would require a good day today.
chris
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
ARMLS STATS 9/15-21/08
Weekly Sales Up Sharply
Pending Sales Rise slightly, inventory too.
More properties sold already this month than all of Sept.'07!
Pending Sales: 7419 (+50 from last week)
Active W/Contingency: 1060 ( +12 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,481 (+443 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,416 (+198 from last week)
Closed Month to Date (9/21) 3,418
Single Family Stats
Pending Sales: 6,680 (+28 from last week)
Active Listings: 42,984 (178 from last week)
Closed: 1,334 (+381 from last week)
Closed Month to Date: 3,091
It was a very nice week for sales, and puts us in a position of easily making it to 5000 sales this month. Actually, were we to compare to our best month, July, in which we topped 6000 sales, we are ahead of that pace as of 9/21...on 7/21/08, we had 3,216, and and as of 9/21/08 we have 3418 for September. I don't think this will hold up; we are not likely to cross 6000 this month, but we are going to achieve a solid number for the month. Enough solid months in a row, means we have a positive trend. There are still too many listings, but as I have mentioned before, they tend to drop off at the end of the month when a great number of pendings disappear. I am not quite sure of the relationship there, but we may touch 50,xxx listings by the end of the month.
That said we still have six months to go at least of too much inventory. It doesn't necessarily mean falling prices however. We are seeing a move towards more purchasing, and that means that people are again finding what they consider to be good housing deals, and are pursuing them. We are still selling houses at a much faster rate than we were all last September and 4th Quarter, even with the mortgage difficulties, so I think that says something about the confidence in prices at these levels. We are poised on what could be a massive setback in the economy with this bailout business, but the bailouts, should they get done, should help the real estate industry.
The bottom line for us is we are having a good month of September, we did reach the number of sales of all last september already-, and the pendings point to a solid next couple of months, assuming there is no meltdown in the financial industry. With Fannie mae and freddie mac already addressed, home lending problems are not as likely, but a confidence crisis could still ruin this slow recovery. For right now, the numbers are to be cheered. It was a good week.
chris
Pending Sales Rise slightly, inventory too.
More properties sold already this month than all of Sept.'07!
Pending Sales: 7419 (+50 from last week)
Active W/Contingency: 1060 ( +12 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,481 (+443 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,416 (+198 from last week)
Closed Month to Date (9/21) 3,418
Single Family Stats
Pending Sales: 6,680 (+28 from last week)
Active Listings: 42,984 (178 from last week)
Closed: 1,334 (+381 from last week)
Closed Month to Date: 3,091
It was a very nice week for sales, and puts us in a position of easily making it to 5000 sales this month. Actually, were we to compare to our best month, July, in which we topped 6000 sales, we are ahead of that pace as of 9/21...on 7/21/08, we had 3,216, and and as of 9/21/08 we have 3418 for September. I don't think this will hold up; we are not likely to cross 6000 this month, but we are going to achieve a solid number for the month. Enough solid months in a row, means we have a positive trend. There are still too many listings, but as I have mentioned before, they tend to drop off at the end of the month when a great number of pendings disappear. I am not quite sure of the relationship there, but we may touch 50,xxx listings by the end of the month.
That said we still have six months to go at least of too much inventory. It doesn't necessarily mean falling prices however. We are seeing a move towards more purchasing, and that means that people are again finding what they consider to be good housing deals, and are pursuing them. We are still selling houses at a much faster rate than we were all last September and 4th Quarter, even with the mortgage difficulties, so I think that says something about the confidence in prices at these levels. We are poised on what could be a massive setback in the economy with this bailout business, but the bailouts, should they get done, should help the real estate industry.
The bottom line for us is we are having a good month of September, we did reach the number of sales of all last september already-, and the pendings point to a solid next couple of months, assuming there is no meltdown in the financial industry. With Fannie mae and freddie mac already addressed, home lending problems are not as likely, but a confidence crisis could still ruin this slow recovery. For right now, the numbers are to be cheered. It was a good week.
chris
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
MLS Stats 9/8-9/14/08
Sales Pick Up, Typical Mid-month week
PENDING SALES: 7,369 ( + 166 from last week)
AWC : 1,048 ( +35 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,038 ( +202 from last week)
Closed through 8/14/08 1,907
Active Listings: 52,218 ( +146 from last week)
SINGLE FAMILY STATS
PENDING SALES: 6,652 (+149 from last week)
Active listings: 42,806 (+101 from last week)
Closed: 953 ( +203 from last week)
Nothing exceptional to report about this week's numbers; it was a typical mid month week, showing decent sales numbers, an uptick in listings, and an uptick in pending sales. What I do like to see is that it appears that we may be holding on to the gains of summer, and September could be on par with August and July. That would be exceptional for our market locally, as it would then point to us having blown through what would be a seasonal downturn. This would show actual signs of returning strength, as this is not a good month at all last year.
At this same time last year, there were only 1,256 sales. The month finished with 3,377 total sales. I don't count this number so I can keep consistency, but including yesterday -midmonth- there are over 2300 sales already. We could almost blow past the entire spetember 07 tally by the 19th-not likely, but its close enough to make it interesting. Comparatively, we are going to do very well in September, however it shakes out. The pending numbers are also showing signs of continuing strength at the 5000-6000- sales level. I don't think we will reach 6000 sales a month any more this year, as we ar going into the slow 4th quarter, but I think it will be consistently decent numbers in the 5000+ per month from the way the numbers are shaping up. It will be interesting to see if the sales hold up, as if they do, we might get some exaggerated fall in active listings, as they don't come on the market as fast in 4th quarter either. Falling sharply into the 40K's in listings would be the most welcome outcome of this 4th quarter.
Now, that being said, it is yet to be determined how the Wall Street financial problems are going to shake out. It sounds like another rate cut is coming, but it appears we already had our big drop in interest rates last week with the rescue of Fannie and Freddie. I don't know what the additional cut will do for housing. I guess it might lower home equity line rates, but it seems to me that we would want to keep the pressure on the price of oil going down, and a rate cut doesn't help with that. Obviously oil falling to $92 a barrel is a welcome sign to most of us, but I wish that savings was being passed on to us. Gas prices have come down very slowly, as the refiners take their usual stance that they already paid for the oil they are refining, so it was done at at a higher price. Of course, they are quick to raise prices when oil is rising aren't they? People don't realize that lower gas prices is a huge stimulus check for most of us, and it will help in terms of housing sales and the overall economy.
PENDING SALES: 7,369 ( + 166 from last week)
AWC : 1,048 ( +35 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,038 ( +202 from last week)
Closed through 8/14/08 1,907
Active Listings: 52,218 ( +146 from last week)
SINGLE FAMILY STATS
PENDING SALES: 6,652 (+149 from last week)
Active listings: 42,806 (+101 from last week)
Closed: 953 ( +203 from last week)
Nothing exceptional to report about this week's numbers; it was a typical mid month week, showing decent sales numbers, an uptick in listings, and an uptick in pending sales. What I do like to see is that it appears that we may be holding on to the gains of summer, and September could be on par with August and July. That would be exceptional for our market locally, as it would then point to us having blown through what would be a seasonal downturn. This would show actual signs of returning strength, as this is not a good month at all last year.
At this same time last year, there were only 1,256 sales. The month finished with 3,377 total sales. I don't count this number so I can keep consistency, but including yesterday -midmonth- there are over 2300 sales already. We could almost blow past the entire spetember 07 tally by the 19th-not likely, but its close enough to make it interesting. Comparatively, we are going to do very well in September, however it shakes out. The pending numbers are also showing signs of continuing strength at the 5000-6000- sales level. I don't think we will reach 6000 sales a month any more this year, as we ar going into the slow 4th quarter, but I think it will be consistently decent numbers in the 5000+ per month from the way the numbers are shaping up. It will be interesting to see if the sales hold up, as if they do, we might get some exaggerated fall in active listings, as they don't come on the market as fast in 4th quarter either. Falling sharply into the 40K's in listings would be the most welcome outcome of this 4th quarter.
Now, that being said, it is yet to be determined how the Wall Street financial problems are going to shake out. It sounds like another rate cut is coming, but it appears we already had our big drop in interest rates last week with the rescue of Fannie and Freddie. I don't know what the additional cut will do for housing. I guess it might lower home equity line rates, but it seems to me that we would want to keep the pressure on the price of oil going down, and a rate cut doesn't help with that. Obviously oil falling to $92 a barrel is a welcome sign to most of us, but I wish that savings was being passed on to us. Gas prices have come down very slowly, as the refiners take their usual stance that they already paid for the oil they are refining, so it was done at at a higher price. Of course, they are quick to raise prices when oil is rising aren't they? People don't realize that lower gas prices is a huge stimulus check for most of us, and it will help in terms of housing sales and the overall economy.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
MLS Stats 9/1-9/7
Pending Sales Rise Locally
Listings Rise a bit, Sales fall in first week
Pending Sales: 7,203 ( +479 from last week)
Active w/Contingency: 1,013 ( +72 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 836 ( -1287 from last week)
Closed MTD: 836
Active Listings: 52,072 ( +458 from last week)
Single Family Stats
Pendings: 6,503 ( +436 from last week)
Active: 42,705 ( +358 from last week)
Closed: 750 ( -1144 from last week)
This was a fairly normal first week of the month. A heavier dose of closings would have been nice, but the way that August finished on a weekend, and the first day being a holiday led to a slightly less robust number. The pending figures are back into good territory, crossing well into the 7000 range. The AWC figures are not a good gauge anymore, as it doesn't seem to be tracking well with the previous system's AWC, even though the rest of the numbers, like pendings and ultimately closings, are fairly similar. I will keep using it, and it may redefine itself. It doesn't look good if you have been watching the statistics for the past year though, and I guess that is what bothers me.
I can't help but touch on the Bailout of Fannie/Freddie. A lot of people may not like this, but it is going to help the housing industry. I have already seen a half point drop in mortgage rates in some areas, according to one of the business channels this morning. Banks will also be more inclined to lend, as they now have a guaranteed market should they wish to sell the note. I don't know how quick it will take hold or what effect it might have; perhaps it will be relatively minor. It should bring some people back into the market for homes, and as we are locally going into our worst part of the year next month, the effect might be diluted as us just maintaining a solid but not noticeable increase in sales over last year. If we maintain our current rate of sales and inventory drawdown, we are still a good year from recovery. If we have a 10% increase in those stats, we could be back to a manageable inventory in as little as 6 months. There is no perfect formula though, as inventory draw down has happened in fits and spurts. We reached a recorded high of 56109 in February, and have slowly come off that figure. Even though we had increasing sales, we also had a lot of inventory go on the market, so it has taken 7 months to draw down about 4000 units. Increased sales will push that down quicker, but the fourth quarter is the least likely time we will see it happen significantly. Given that fact, I am still estimating a close to a year before we drop down to 40-45K listings. Fourth Quarter and early first quarter are not big movers, but I do suspect next march will be a very decent month for us. The time in between? Who knows, but I suspect it will not be as good as August of '08, but much better than last years figures.
Listings Rise a bit, Sales fall in first week
Pending Sales: 7,203 ( +479 from last week)
Active w/Contingency: 1,013 ( +72 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 836 ( -1287 from last week)
Closed MTD: 836
Active Listings: 52,072 ( +458 from last week)
Single Family Stats
Pendings: 6,503 ( +436 from last week)
Active: 42,705 ( +358 from last week)
Closed: 750 ( -1144 from last week)
This was a fairly normal first week of the month. A heavier dose of closings would have been nice, but the way that August finished on a weekend, and the first day being a holiday led to a slightly less robust number. The pending figures are back into good territory, crossing well into the 7000 range. The AWC figures are not a good gauge anymore, as it doesn't seem to be tracking well with the previous system's AWC, even though the rest of the numbers, like pendings and ultimately closings, are fairly similar. I will keep using it, and it may redefine itself. It doesn't look good if you have been watching the statistics for the past year though, and I guess that is what bothers me.
I can't help but touch on the Bailout of Fannie/Freddie. A lot of people may not like this, but it is going to help the housing industry. I have already seen a half point drop in mortgage rates in some areas, according to one of the business channels this morning. Banks will also be more inclined to lend, as they now have a guaranteed market should they wish to sell the note. I don't know how quick it will take hold or what effect it might have; perhaps it will be relatively minor. It should bring some people back into the market for homes, and as we are locally going into our worst part of the year next month, the effect might be diluted as us just maintaining a solid but not noticeable increase in sales over last year. If we maintain our current rate of sales and inventory drawdown, we are still a good year from recovery. If we have a 10% increase in those stats, we could be back to a manageable inventory in as little as 6 months. There is no perfect formula though, as inventory draw down has happened in fits and spurts. We reached a recorded high of 56109 in February, and have slowly come off that figure. Even though we had increasing sales, we also had a lot of inventory go on the market, so it has taken 7 months to draw down about 4000 units. Increased sales will push that down quicker, but the fourth quarter is the least likely time we will see it happen significantly. Given that fact, I am still estimating a close to a year before we drop down to 40-45K listings. Fourth Quarter and early first quarter are not big movers, but I do suspect next march will be a very decent month for us. The time in between? Who knows, but I suspect it will not be as good as August of '08, but much better than last years figures.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
STATS 8/25-8/31/08 5,843 CLOSED AUGUST!
AUGUST WEEKLY FINISH: 2000+ CLOSED!
ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL...Fewest number of Active in 2008...
PENDING SALES: 6,724 ( -531 from last week)
ACTIVE WITH CONTINGENCY: 941 ( -150 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROW: 2,123 ( +1,009 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 5,843
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 51,614 ( -794 from last week)
Single Family Closings: 1,894 ( + 904 from last week)
August Stats
AUGUST CLOSED ESCROWS: 5,843 (Aug '07- 4,307)
Single Family Quick Stats
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSED August: 5,237 (Aug '07-3,544)
Single Family Pendings: 6,067
Single Family Listings: 42,347 ( -608 from last week)
The month of August finished up with an exceptional flourish, showing us it is possible to close 2000 escrows in one week again-wasn't sure if that possible given the last year! The number is down slightly from July, but certainly a lot better than I had forecast. I didn't see 2000+ closings happening in the last week, but here we are.
The 5843 was our second best month this year behind July's 6,033. Remember these are all MLS sales, and while their are some preforeclosure and short sales, these are legit sales, not bids on the court house steps. These are realtor transacted sales, and it means someone is buying. A lot of positives can be taken from this month. I am feeling a lot better at our chances of a turnaround in the next six months.
Perhaps even more exciting to me is that we are approaching that magical number of 50,000 listings on the MLS. The numbers are definitely not peeling away as fast we would like, but we are within earshot of that mostly symbolic fence, and I am looking forward to slipping beneath it at some point. It could take several more months, but it is getting closer. The single family listings have slipped as well, and we are at about 8.08 months supply of listings, according to the latest figures. Its not ideal, but its easy to see that a drop to 40,000 of SFD listings will put us at about 6+ months of supply, a far more manageable figure of homes for sale than what we have experienced. We should see some influx of first time buyers as well, as the tax incentives and govt bailout tools will start having an effect toward the 4th quarter, and into the first half of next year. I am not going to be overly optimistic by predicting any "boomlet", but it should guarantee some strength in the housing sector for the short term. If we can continue to shave listings, and continue to show sales strength, things will get back to equilibrium. We are probablt not going to go back to a less than three month supply of housing on the market, but I think if we can get to a factor of 5- 35000 SFD listings, and selling 7000 SFD a month, for example- we will have likely seen the end of downward pricing pressure. As it is, we are still a ways off from that, but there are many signs of optimism to be gleaned here. It certainly appears that last summer was way worse than now, and we are bouncing along now above that by a decent, but not flashy, margin.
ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL...Fewest number of Active in 2008...
PENDING SALES: 6,724 ( -531 from last week)
ACTIVE WITH CONTINGENCY: 941 ( -150 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROW: 2,123 ( +1,009 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 5,843
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 51,614 ( -794 from last week)
Single Family Closings: 1,894 ( + 904 from last week)
August Stats
AUGUST CLOSED ESCROWS: 5,843 (Aug '07- 4,307)
Single Family Quick Stats
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSED August: 5,237 (Aug '07-3,544)
Single Family Pendings: 6,067
Single Family Listings: 42,347 ( -608 from last week)
The month of August finished up with an exceptional flourish, showing us it is possible to close 2000 escrows in one week again-wasn't sure if that possible given the last year! The number is down slightly from July, but certainly a lot better than I had forecast. I didn't see 2000+ closings happening in the last week, but here we are.
The 5843 was our second best month this year behind July's 6,033. Remember these are all MLS sales, and while their are some preforeclosure and short sales, these are legit sales, not bids on the court house steps. These are realtor transacted sales, and it means someone is buying. A lot of positives can be taken from this month. I am feeling a lot better at our chances of a turnaround in the next six months.
Perhaps even more exciting to me is that we are approaching that magical number of 50,000 listings on the MLS. The numbers are definitely not peeling away as fast we would like, but we are within earshot of that mostly symbolic fence, and I am looking forward to slipping beneath it at some point. It could take several more months, but it is getting closer. The single family listings have slipped as well, and we are at about 8.08 months supply of listings, according to the latest figures. Its not ideal, but its easy to see that a drop to 40,000 of SFD listings will put us at about 6+ months of supply, a far more manageable figure of homes for sale than what we have experienced. We should see some influx of first time buyers as well, as the tax incentives and govt bailout tools will start having an effect toward the 4th quarter, and into the first half of next year. I am not going to be overly optimistic by predicting any "boomlet", but it should guarantee some strength in the housing sector for the short term. If we can continue to shave listings, and continue to show sales strength, things will get back to equilibrium. We are probablt not going to go back to a less than three month supply of housing on the market, but I think if we can get to a factor of 5- 35000 SFD listings, and selling 7000 SFD a month, for example- we will have likely seen the end of downward pricing pressure. As it is, we are still a ways off from that, but there are many signs of optimism to be gleaned here. It certainly appears that last summer was way worse than now, and we are bouncing along now above that by a decent, but not flashy, margin.
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