MLS data 11/5/07-11/11/07:
Pending Sales: 4199 (+243 From Last Week)
Pending + Active W/Contingency: 4688 (+282 from Last Week)
Closed Sales: 507 ( -523 from Last Week)
Active Listings: 57575 (+335 from Last Week)
The data for the week shows a couple of things. The sales numbers are way down, which would be expected in the first full week of the month. Last week was the residual of October and the first few days of the month, which there would be a little spillover from the end of october sales, so it is a heavier number of closings. This is running about par for the for the last few months for a weekly sales number for a middle of the month week.
Second, the active listings did not climb a lot for the beginning of the month. I am hoping to see a wholesale slide, but it may not happen in November. The number is meandering, but it is statistically equivalent to last week, about half a percent higher. It is not good news, but not bad news either. It does appear to be off its highs, however.
Third, I am taking some heart in that pending sales and active w/ contingency numbers are pretty strong for this early in the month. That is a very good number, as this shows the new contracts trendline is strong compared to the current trend, and especially so given that sales in the last few months of the calendar should be expected to be very weak, even weaker than September and October. These numbers normally would be expected to build during the month somewhat, and if they show up as sales at the end of the month and December, we could go into the new year with some new momentum. I would love to see that.
It would have been nice to see the actives decrease, but we can't have everything at once it seems. The numbers overall are not significantly better than October, but I had lower expectations, and again, I would be fairly happy with matching October Sales in November, given historical data.
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