MLS figures for October 29th-November 4th

MLS Statistics Week of 10/29/07

Pending MLS Sales 10/29/07-11/04/07: 3956 ( -226 from Last Week)

Pending + Active W/Contingency: 4406 ( -240 from Last Week)

Active Listings: 57240 ( -520 from Last Week)

Closed Sales: 1030 (+ 255 from Last Week)


Typical beginning of the month numbers; it seems that the first week of the month is always the weakest for new contracts. It is likely that the numbers won't get a lot better for this month, as November and December are poorish months for sales. If November sales hold onto the sales of October, I think most people would consider that a positive.

Speaking of positive, the number of Active Listings shrank a significant number for the first time in a while. Don't read too much into the Sales increase, it was the last week of the month, and sales are supposed to be higher. It would be great to see actives shrink another 1000 by the end of November. That would be an unqualified success at this point. If we can shave this number under 55000 by the end of the year, I would be impressed. We will hope that excess inventory will start really shrinking significantly in First Quarter. So much of the market is psychology, and right now, this large amount of listings is what is causing so much concern in the market. We should really be doubling the sales figures we are currently registering, glut of homes or not, but people are deeply disturbed by the prospect of the market continuing to fall.
For example 6000 sales in January would probably cut 3000-3500 homes off the market inventory. A similar or increasing number in subsequent months could knock 15% of the inventory off the market by the end of 1st quarter. That would be significant, and do a lot to straighten out the market. The biggest challenge to this scenario is how many foreclosures come back on the market. That is an unknown number, and I hope that their impact will be stretched out and marginalized. Something that may also impact resales is the amount of new home sales. I have a feeling, that I have mentioned before, that new homes will be a better value for buyers in the short term, especially in the outlying areas.