Pendings Up Sharply in April
Inventory Falls Slightly
Short Sales continue to dominate listings and AWC.
Pending: 14,488 2 Weeks Ago: 13,590
Pending Sfam: 12,459 2 Weeks Ago: 11,783
AWC: 8,068 +347 from 4/6/2010
AWC Sfam: 6,953 +338 from 4/6/2010
Closed: 1,960
Closed Sfam: 1,654
Active: 34,135 -221 from 4/6/2010
Active: 26,751 -117 from 4/6/2010
Closed thru 4/18/2010: 4,200
Closed Sfam: 3,514
April is shaping up for a pretty good month. With 2 weeks left, we should cross over 8500 pretty easily, but will probably top 9000. I am not going to swear to it, as we have seen some volatile activity. It could also approach 9500- I am not entirely sure. Pendings have climbed sharply in the last few weeks- a lot of this is the result of pushing homes under the wire for the tax rebate, but we have general growth in demand as well. I won't address it today, but I am going to do an analysis on some submarkets, just to show how activity in neighborhoods has picked up substantially. The velocity of sales in places that are not first time homebuyer locations is a good gauge that its not only the tax rebate at work here.
Inventory is not falling at a rapid rate, as single family homes are still pushing onto the market at a high velocity. Short Sales now make up 13,847 of the 34,135 listings. Short sales simply spend too much time on the market, and the sooner lenders start allowing them to move, the quicker the housing market recovers. There are 8000+ homes that are short sales that are currently under some kind of contract that has not been accepted fully by the bank. They need to start expediting these sales.
Short Sales have accounted for only 806 of the 4200 sales so far in April. Lender owned properties have accounted for 1,619 of April sales. There are only 4869 lender listings. You do the math; they are willing to close out the properties they already own quickly, but are dragging their feet when it comes to helping their borrowers extricate themselves. If they have to take it back, they are simply going to get less for the house, with more costs. Its very short sighted on many banks part to not expedite this process.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
ARMLS Stats- April 6, 2010
****March Sales: 9,005****
Pendings Fall Slightly, Short Sales continue to rise
Inventory: 3.8 month supply of homes on the market.
Median home price rises by $3,800 in March.
Pending Sales: 13,590 ( -328 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( -425 from last week)
AWC: 7,721 ( +69 from last week)
AWC SFam: 6,615 ( +54 from last week)
Closed 3/29-4/4 2,664 ( +840 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,235 ( +672 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,356 ( -443 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 26,868 ( -305 from last week)
March Closings: 9,005 (March 2009: 7562)
sMarch Sfam: 7,573
March sales finished very strong, just pushing us over the top of 9000. This exceeded March 2009 substantially, so we are still seeing good demand numbers. Some of this of course is the result of the tax rebate expiring in April, but demand strength is definitely widespread.
The Median price was up over February by $3800, and over March 2009 by $8K, so price gains are also substantial. Pending numbers are holding up very well, and we are likely to continue to post gains in pending sales. Short sales will hopefully start moving with the start of the short sale incentive to lenders and borrowers, as that statistic continues to climb. There are in excess of 6000 of these kind of contracts; they linger and clog inventory, and diminish what should be excellent demand. Instead of people buying a home right now, think of it as pushing that sale into next quarter, or maybe two quarters, as that is how long it takes to get through to a closed sale.
There is probably going to be a big build up in April and May due to the tax credit expiring, but there is usually a pretty strong build up in demand in these months anyway. I would expect to see some inventory come off the market, but really, at 3.8 months, inventory doesn't need to fall to see increases in prices.
I was just checking for fun due to a conversation I had with a client, and I noticed that 111 one million dollar+ homes sold in March. I don't follow that stat religiously, but I think the last time I checked it, it was in the high 60's, sometime in the last six months. That to me shows some strength in broader areas of the market than just first time buyers. We continue to get mixed messages from the media on where housing is going, but our local statistics are showing strong month to month gains in prices and volume from January and February. I think we are on a good path.
chris
Pendings Fall Slightly, Short Sales continue to rise
Inventory: 3.8 month supply of homes on the market.
Median home price rises by $3,800 in March.
Pending Sales: 13,590 ( -328 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( -425 from last week)
AWC: 7,721 ( +69 from last week)
AWC SFam: 6,615 ( +54 from last week)
Closed 3/29-4/4 2,664 ( +840 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,235 ( +672 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,356 ( -443 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 26,868 ( -305 from last week)
March Closings: 9,005 (March 2009: 7562)
sMarch Sfam: 7,573
March sales finished very strong, just pushing us over the top of 9000. This exceeded March 2009 substantially, so we are still seeing good demand numbers. Some of this of course is the result of the tax rebate expiring in April, but demand strength is definitely widespread.
The Median price was up over February by $3800, and over March 2009 by $8K, so price gains are also substantial. Pending numbers are holding up very well, and we are likely to continue to post gains in pending sales. Short sales will hopefully start moving with the start of the short sale incentive to lenders and borrowers, as that statistic continues to climb. There are in excess of 6000 of these kind of contracts; they linger and clog inventory, and diminish what should be excellent demand. Instead of people buying a home right now, think of it as pushing that sale into next quarter, or maybe two quarters, as that is how long it takes to get through to a closed sale.
There is probably going to be a big build up in April and May due to the tax credit expiring, but there is usually a pretty strong build up in demand in these months anyway. I would expect to see some inventory come off the market, but really, at 3.8 months, inventory doesn't need to fall to see increases in prices.
I was just checking for fun due to a conversation I had with a client, and I noticed that 111 one million dollar+ homes sold in March. I don't follow that stat religiously, but I think the last time I checked it, it was in the high 60's, sometime in the last six months. That to me shows some strength in broader areas of the market than just first time buyers. We continue to get mixed messages from the media on where housing is going, but our local statistics are showing strong month to month gains in prices and volume from January and February. I think we are on a good path.
chris
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
ARMLS STATS 3/30/2010
Pendings Rise; Listings Fall
March Closings to Outpace 2009 Handily
March 2010 prices up 6.2% from March 2009
Pending: 13,918 ( +253 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 12,208 ( +425 from last week)
AWC: 7,652 ( +139 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,561 ( +112 from last week)
CLOSED: 1,824 ( -33 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,563 ( -8 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,799 ( -227 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,173 (-196 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 6,930
Closed Sfam: 5,825
March 2009 Sales: 7,562
Pendings continue to show strength in demand for home sales in the ARMLS market area. We did reach over 14000 briefly last week. There are also upwards of 6500 AWC short sales- we don't know when those contracts will close, but they do show that some people are willing to wait for their sale to close, even if it takes months. It still must be considered demand, as someone wrote a contract.
There are some inside the numbers that I would like to focus on. I have heard constantly about the shadow inventory in Arizona for more than a year. We had a tidal wave coming last April. It never materialized, and we slashed inventory from unimaginable numbers down to where we are now- which is probably a normal level of inventory for the size of our market. Its hard to say for sure- we are seeing price gains moving at a signifcant level each month that might cause 25% annual price growth.
That growth rate is actually too high, but given that all real estate is drastically undervalued now, the rise could be attributed to the natural return to normalcy in pricing. I am going to say that we are just a little bit high in inventory level numbers, as I think prices should be rising even faster than what we are seeing them. Price levels of real estate assets is artificially depressed, and remain so only because people are not fully vested in our economy and the idea that life goes on, even after the financial meltdown. We will see some drastic price increases in the next year at some point, as people realize the value.
The median price gain from February to March is probably going to be a few thousand dollars- not a lot, but not inconsequential either. It is about $7000 higher than last March, which is significant. February was the balance point for median price- February of 2010 was $100 higher than last February- prior to that, the prices were lower than the previous year. We are showing year over year growth again.
Another number we rarely look at is the new listings category. March is one of the heaviest month for new listings-in 2009, it was the heaviest volume for new listings. This year is similar, although it looks like we might see just a few less listings in March. The number of sales in march will outpace 2009 by a significant amount, so the number of new listings isnt particularly scary. I will start keeping an eye on new inventory, but its not looking like its out of line at all. The statistics are starting show that we are likely in full recovery mode.
March Closings to Outpace 2009 Handily
March 2010 prices up 6.2% from March 2009
Pending: 13,918 ( +253 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 12,208 ( +425 from last week)
AWC: 7,652 ( +139 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,561 ( +112 from last week)
CLOSED: 1,824 ( -33 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,563 ( -8 from last week)
Active Listings: 34,799 ( -227 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,173 (-196 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 6,930
Closed Sfam: 5,825
March 2009 Sales: 7,562
Pendings continue to show strength in demand for home sales in the ARMLS market area. We did reach over 14000 briefly last week. There are also upwards of 6500 AWC short sales- we don't know when those contracts will close, but they do show that some people are willing to wait for their sale to close, even if it takes months. It still must be considered demand, as someone wrote a contract.
There are some inside the numbers that I would like to focus on. I have heard constantly about the shadow inventory in Arizona for more than a year. We had a tidal wave coming last April. It never materialized, and we slashed inventory from unimaginable numbers down to where we are now- which is probably a normal level of inventory for the size of our market. Its hard to say for sure- we are seeing price gains moving at a signifcant level each month that might cause 25% annual price growth.
That growth rate is actually too high, but given that all real estate is drastically undervalued now, the rise could be attributed to the natural return to normalcy in pricing. I am going to say that we are just a little bit high in inventory level numbers, as I think prices should be rising even faster than what we are seeing them. Price levels of real estate assets is artificially depressed, and remain so only because people are not fully vested in our economy and the idea that life goes on, even after the financial meltdown. We will see some drastic price increases in the next year at some point, as people realize the value.
The median price gain from February to March is probably going to be a few thousand dollars- not a lot, but not inconsequential either. It is about $7000 higher than last March, which is significant. February was the balance point for median price- February of 2010 was $100 higher than last February- prior to that, the prices were lower than the previous year. We are showing year over year growth again.
Another number we rarely look at is the new listings category. March is one of the heaviest month for new listings-in 2009, it was the heaviest volume for new listings. This year is similar, although it looks like we might see just a few less listings in March. The number of sales in march will outpace 2009 by a significant amount, so the number of new listings isnt particularly scary. I will start keeping an eye on new inventory, but its not looking like its out of line at all. The statistics are starting show that we are likely in full recovery mode.
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