April Sales Finish Strong, Pendings and Actives Hold; Inventory Falls almost 2% in a week!
Pending Sales: 7004 ( -102 from last week)
Active with Contingency: 1332 ( +3 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8336 ( -99 from last week)
Active Listings: 54450 ( -1022 from last week)
Closed 4.28-5.4: 1627 ( +530 from last week)
MTD Closings (As of 5.4.08) 402
End of April updated Sales: 4,880
Obviously, we had a very good week with high number of closings occurring at the end of the month to put us at a very solid number for the month of April. What I think is even more impressive is that even with a very large number of pendings turning into sales last week, we still basically replaced all of the contracts. The difference of 99 is statistically insignificant, and we will probably press ahead with even higher pending figures over the next few weeks. It always takes a week or so to recover in pendings, but if you look at the active with contingency contracts, they are holding their ground very well. Another positive is that Active listings had a steep decline last week, by over a 1000. We have arrived at a several month low in listings, and we may see some further drops through May. It is statistically only about 8% off its highs, but it is decreasing. I will be impressed when it reaches 45,000 listings. That will tell us we are on to something.
These numbers were supposed to improve seasonally, and they are not so great as to imply we are out of the housing mess, but they do imply it is not getting worse, and is likely getting somewhat better. We are still going to face price declines in some areas, and the market is still bloated, but we do have a nice downward trend developing in inventory, a solid pending sales figure, new contracts coming in at an acceptable sustainable pace, and from what I hear, a fairly strong maortgage application market. This, coupled with the fed's armtwisting banks to loosen credit standards a bit should be seen as encouraging signs of an improving market. Builders have also adjusted by decreasing their spec home inventory to its lowest levels since 2005, from what I understand. They have also adjusted prices to match the market demand, and there are some good new home deals out there.
I am guardedly optimistic about the next several quarters, if nothing else comes along to kill the economy. Oil prices today hit another new record, and this is going to weigh on the economy, as working people are simply going to be unable to drive very far from their job locations to a home. This is a concern. We will have to see how that plays out. Sometimes, unexpected things happen as a result, like creating a new demand for fuel-efficient cars. Or that infill development will elicit high demand, as people seek new homes within the city.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Pinal County Resales Showing Surprising Vibrancy
There was a great article in the Phoenix Business Journal concerning resale homes in Pinal County. While we weren't watching, they have had a little renaissance in their market. If you look at sales figures from third quarter to first quarter this year, you will see that resales have more than doubled, and almost tripled. The article goes on to compare that number to the all time high in 2005, and it is pretty encouraging to see how close those numbers are. Pinal County is one of the legs of future growth in this state, and we are seeing why. When it offers reasonably priced housing, as is the case again, this is a very attractive incentive for people to live there.
APRIL MLS CLOSINGS-PRELIMINARY FIGURES
April Sales Total- How did we finish?
Sales figures for the month of April are in....there will be a few stragglers, so I expect this number to go up a bit, but this gives us a good indication. We had a blowout last three days of the month, and finished at a very respectable 4,804. That beats March handily, and while it is no where near the 5,475 from April 07, very few people would expect it to be. It is not where we need to be long term either, but it is a good step. If you annualize that rate, it brings us down below a 12 month supply of homes on the market. That is a bench mark we haven't seen in a while, and I think it is significant. This is a very encouraging number given our market right now. The fact we have experience four straight months of growth, that activity is picking up, that active listings are starting to slip ever so slightly, and that the financial markets seem to stabilized may point us to a fourth quarter recovery. I have not been impressed with new home sales figures as of yet; they seem to be just treading water. When there are some signs of new home purchases showing some robustness, I will feel a lot better.
Sales figures for the month of April are in....there will be a few stragglers, so I expect this number to go up a bit, but this gives us a good indication. We had a blowout last three days of the month, and finished at a very respectable 4,804. That beats March handily, and while it is no where near the 5,475 from April 07, very few people would expect it to be. It is not where we need to be long term either, but it is a good step. If you annualize that rate, it brings us down below a 12 month supply of homes on the market. That is a bench mark we haven't seen in a while, and I think it is significant. This is a very encouraging number given our market right now. The fact we have experience four straight months of growth, that activity is picking up, that active listings are starting to slip ever so slightly, and that the financial markets seem to stabilized may point us to a fourth quarter recovery. I have not been impressed with new home sales figures as of yet; they seem to be just treading water. When there are some signs of new home purchases showing some robustness, I will feel a lot better.
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