April Sales Finish Strong, Pendings and Actives Hold; Inventory Falls almost 2% in a week!
Pending Sales: 7004 ( -102 from last week)
Active with Contingency: 1332 ( +3 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8336 ( -99 from last week)
Active Listings: 54450 ( -1022 from last week)
Closed 4.28-5.4: 1627 ( +530 from last week)
MTD Closings (As of 5.4.08) 402
End of April updated Sales: 4,880
Obviously, we had a very good week with high number of closings occurring at the end of the month to put us at a very solid number for the month of April. What I think is even more impressive is that even with a very large number of pendings turning into sales last week, we still basically replaced all of the contracts. The difference of 99 is statistically insignificant, and we will probably press ahead with even higher pending figures over the next few weeks. It always takes a week or so to recover in pendings, but if you look at the active with contingency contracts, they are holding their ground very well. Another positive is that Active listings had a steep decline last week, by over a 1000. We have arrived at a several month low in listings, and we may see some further drops through May. It is statistically only about 8% off its highs, but it is decreasing. I will be impressed when it reaches 45,000 listings. That will tell us we are on to something.
These numbers were supposed to improve seasonally, and they are not so great as to imply we are out of the housing mess, but they do imply it is not getting worse, and is likely getting somewhat better. We are still going to face price declines in some areas, and the market is still bloated, but we do have a nice downward trend developing in inventory, a solid pending sales figure, new contracts coming in at an acceptable sustainable pace, and from what I hear, a fairly strong maortgage application market. This, coupled with the fed's armtwisting banks to loosen credit standards a bit should be seen as encouraging signs of an improving market. Builders have also adjusted by decreasing their spec home inventory to its lowest levels since 2005, from what I understand. They have also adjusted prices to match the market demand, and there are some good new home deals out there.
I am guardedly optimistic about the next several quarters, if nothing else comes along to kill the economy. Oil prices today hit another new record, and this is going to weigh on the economy, as working people are simply going to be unable to drive very far from their job locations to a home. This is a concern. We will have to see how that plays out. Sometimes, unexpected things happen as a result, like creating a new demand for fuel-efficient cars. Or that infill development will elicit high demand, as people seek new homes within the city.
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