MLS Stats 4/13/2011

Pendings Still Rising; Inventory Slides.
March Sales hit 10,002
Less than three months of inventory at current levels.


Pending: 13,754 (+525 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,807 (+446 from last week)

AWC: 7,416 ( +259 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,367 ( +243 from last week)

Active: 29,373 ( -571 from last week)
Active Sfam: 23,662 ( -509 from last week)

Closed 4/4-4/10: 1,620 ( -1258 from last week)
Closed sfam: 1,333 (-1067 from last week)

Sorry this posting is coming a bit late; I had a full day yesterday, and I just couldn't get to the posting. In the interest of consistency, I did take these statistics at the same time on Tuesday that I normally pull them, so they are accurate for the week.

It was statistically a very nice week for housing. Despite the number of closings being down substantially from the previous week, 1600+ sales in the first full week of a month is a good indicator of strong sales. Pendings have recovered nicely from the drop that occurs at the end of the month, which also forecasts stronger sales. Inventory continues to slide; it is not as sharp a drop as we have been seeing, but as inventory gets smaller, it is statistically harder to keep up the same reductions, as the law of percentages begins to take hold. Make no mistake, it is still a very sharp in inventory. I suppose it is inevitable as inventory drops and prices firm up, that it will attract sellers who are at the margins of being able to sell, and are only waiting for an opportunity to do so. Average prices rose by a few thousand dollars in March compared to February, and there are some submarkets that are definitely firming up. We may see some rising level of new listings, which have been falling sharply. It does appear that new listings in April appear to be sharply lower as well. It is quite conceivable we will see inventory slide by another 1000 units by the end of April.

Single family inventory is already creeping into the area of being in relative short supply. We are currently below 3 months supply- any less is will undoubtedly lead to price increases. We are in fact already seeing that median list prices are higher by 8900 from March to this month. It will probably narrow a bit as sheer numbers of listings increase. Prices do look like they could be on an upward trend, given all the factors affecting them.