**March Sales Just Miss 10,000**
Active listings fall under 30,000
Median Price Rises slightly; Further gain expected in April
PENDING SALES: 13,229 ( -500 from last week)
PENDING SFAM: 11,361 ( -362 from last week)
AWC: 7,157 ( +46 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,124 ( +30 from last week)
Active Listings: 29,944 (-786 from last week)
Active Sfam: 24,171 ( -623 from last week)
Closed 3/27-4/3 2,878 ( +792 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,400 ( +656 from last week)
Closed March'11 9,944 ( +2745 from Feb'11, +1143 from March 2010)
Closed Sfam: 8,296
New Listings 3/11: 12,355 ( -2354 from March 2010) -16% from 2010
Inventory to Sales Ratio: 3.01 months
Ratio Single Family: 2.91 months
March was a big month for housing sales, by any measure you would want to take. March 2011 could be seen as a turning point if activity through the summer retains its current energy. Pendings normally fall at the end of the month when there is a rush of closings, but since the beginning of last week, there have been 3,001 new pending sales, which is a strong number, and should forecast good sales for April as well.
We just missed 10,000 sales in March; I was hoping we would get there, as I noted that previous months last week of sales forecast a very strong finish. Just a hair short, but still a very impressive month. The number could fluctuate a bit, but we have seen multiple reasons now to hope the worst is past: our new listings are falling, so inventory can be depleted faster; we had a blowout month for sales, and the pendings are forecasting another good month in April; prices ticked up 1% in March, so maybe we have seen the bottom in pricing, and our general economic outlook is improving. If April follows March even half way, we could see inventory reduced by several more thousand listings, and if this continues, we will find ourselves in a shortage position. Typically, inventory to sales ratio of 2.5 times will lead to price gains, as that has proven simply to be too little inventory.
This all depends on us staying on a positive course. Sales could fall, new listings could start to rise again, as they did last year, and mortgages could become harder to obtain. All of these things are possible, and even one of them could have an adverse effect. But, as it is, we had an excellent quarter, with sales up 10% over last year, listings down 14.1%, and a prices steady. As we look at forecasting numbers, they also appear to support stronger sales over the next few months, and the lower level of new listings has been consistent, so it appears to be a trend. These are all reasons for great optimism that this is going to be a solid housing season through the middle of 2011.
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