**October Sales: 8,146-All-Time Record?**
Inventory Rising: Actives up again
Short Sales Starting to move?
In the News:
PENDING: 12,021 ( -1178 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,570 ( -1013 from last week)
AWC: 6,418 ( -120 from last week)
AWC SFam: 5,670 ( -105 from last week)
CLOSED: 2,840 ( +1216 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,459 ( +1033 from last week)
Active: 32,489 ( +277 from last week)
Active Sfam: 25,078 (+218 from last week)
CLOSED OCTOBER: 8,146
Closed Single Family: 7,061
Sales finished very strong in October, posting 2800+ sales in the final week, to boost us comfortably past 8000 sales. For comparison, there 5,335 sales in October 2008. For comparison sake, October 2005, there were 7,973 sales. Of course, the dollar volumes were much higher in 2005, so lets not get ahead of ourselves, but the sales activity is very good. October 2004 was a very good month, and was at the forefront of the boom. It saw a total of 8,128- which means that 2009 is likely the best October in ARMLS history in terms of sales numbers. A dubious record, one might say, due to the decreased dollar volumes, but the positive I take from it is that there is a high amount of interest in purchasing a home again, which is good for our industry.
The flip side of this equation is that we are seeing the banks putting inventory out there at full force. We are seeing an uptick in residential listings, which is fairly normal for this time of year. It normally would start to fall around Thanksgiving, as people put off listings homes until January, but with the bank sales being such a large component of listings, we might see a steady progression through the winter months, until sales start to pick up again in February. There could be a lot of things different this year. Inventory is going to be a key factor to watch, as the increase in pricing we are seeing may be encouraging lenders to try to turn around properties faster.
Now, that being said, we are seeing just a modest leveling off of AWC contracts, the bulk of which are made up of short sales. In fact, 5,760 of the AWC listings are short sales. This number needs to start falling for a few reasons: 1. To unclog the short sale system so people don't become frutstrated by the idea of buying one, and 2. these are pending sales locked into a holding pattern, therefore holding back what should really be some better sales numbers every month. AWC has gone from being a number forecasting future pending contracts, to a dirty word implying contracts that are tied up for months on end. Banks need to realize they are not helping themselves by holding these sales up- they are going to happen anyway, and they might as well approve them and get down the road.
There was some other positive news this week. Gilbert is being singled out for really eye-raising new construction numbers. In an article in the AZ Republic, it is being described as a "mini-boom". Permits are outstripping any other community in the valley. I would not characterized it as a boom, but as one of the most attractive newer areas of the valley, it is understandable why we would see Gilbert activity at the forefront of a new round of new construction. Some builders are even referring to a land rush there- hard to believe that kind of vocabulary even exists here, but hopefully it continues.
I don't always agree with her, but Diana Olick of CNBC wrote a very prescient article about where the homebuying assistance should be focusing on, and she is right. First time homebuyers are critical, and perhaps make up a large part of the market, but move-up buyers are the bottleneck, and while the expansion of the credit will help them to a degree, it would have been a good idea to give them at least the same tax credit that lower-priced homebuyers are receiving. There can be no price appreciation without these buyers confidently looking at getting into better neighborhoods, making their lower priced homes available to first time buyers. Still, the extension will help us through the winter months, and allow many buyers an opportunity they might otherwise sidestep.
Pending home sales were up nationally for eight consecutive months, signalling that maybe we are reaching a point of recovery. There are a lot of obstacles, least of which is inventory, but there are getting to be more positive signals than not, so it seems we are headed in the right direction.
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