ARMLS STATS FOR GREATER PHOENIX 10/27/09

Actives Rise Again....Pendings Too.
AWC Fall....
Sales for month likely to top 8000....

Pending: 13,199 (+99 from last week)
Pending SFAM: 11,583 ( +88 from last week)

AWC: 6,538 ( -88 from last week)
AWC SFam: 5,775 ( -96 from last week)

CLOSED 10.25 1,624 ( -12 from last week)
Closed SF: 1,426 ( -2 from last week)

Active: 32,212 ( +325 from last week)
Active Sfam: 24,860 ( +318 from last week)

CLOSED MTD: 5,311
Closed Sfam: 4,615

I don't have time for much analysis today, but two key things are showing up. One is that active listings continue to rise; Troy Wahlberg, of AZValley Real Estate, wrote in that since anti-deficiency legislation was repealed, banks have increased the number of homes that they are foreclosing as they are not hedging that they might be able to go after owners for deficiencies any longer. He has seen the trustee sales return to their previous level, which would account for the slight uptick in listings we are seeing hit the market. It is not a wave, certainly, but we are likely to see an increase in inventory as we go through the winter months, when sales typically slow down. Listings also typically slow down, but much of our new inventory is lender-owned so the seasonal aspect may not matter much to them.

The second issue is that we are on track for a decent sales month, and I will say that we will pass 8000 sales overall. Its not a given, but the last week should be fairly decent, and all things being equal, we should get there. Its not a blowout month, but we are definitely far ahead of 2008's pace.

We would like to see inventory falling, but we are not at the peak sales months, and we are also seeing some evidence of new home sales likely competing for buyers. I have been seeing new homes going up in many of the outlying communities like Buckeye and Coolidge. Builders are offering some tremendous value for new homes, and the new home reports are showing some consistently better numbers than last year. In all likelihood, those are not spec homes- builders, even the big ones, are not going to go and put up 20+ spec homes at a clip on the same block- they either already have buyers for those homes, or they have some reasonable data that tells them they are selling fast enough to warrant their construction. Our resale prices have been going up, but I think we are going to see where they encounter some resistance as builders bring their pricing power to bear and offer up bargains that many buyers, especially first-time buyers, can't ignore.