PENDINGS, AWC, Total Contracts INCREASE to Recorded Yearly High, Weekly Sales Drop Slightly.
Active listings increase, Sales ahead of June 07 pace, slightly behind May 08 pace.
June 15-June 22nd, 2008
Pending Sales: 7606 ( +191 from last week)
Active W/Contingency: 1548 ( +18 from last week)
Total Contracts: 9,154 ( +209 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,985 ( +254 from last week)
Closed Escrows 6.15.08-6.22.08 1,172 ( -42 from last week)
Closed MTD Through 6.22.08 3,428 ( +11 pace from June 22 '07) (5,406 total)
( -27 pace from May 22 '08) (5,636 total)
The stats point to continued strength in buyer activity, as pending contracts, as well as active with contingency contracts continue to build. This, coupled with increasing monthly sales, is a very positive sign. We are at yearly highs in the "good categories" of pendings and AWC, so we are continuing to go in the right direction.
The sales pace is also in line to reach June 2007, but due to how the 30 is on a Monday, I am not sure we will get there. We are ahead of the pace as of the 22nd, and it could happen that there is a huge surge in sales through this week and next Monday, but Mondays are odd days for title companies to close on, so we will have to see if 5,406 is reachable . It will be an interesting race to see if we get there. An unofficial check today has us 151 sales ahead of last year through this date, and we are only half way through the day. It will have to be a good week to get there, and Monday the 30th will have to be a big day. There are just a lot of weekend days this month, but it would be very uplifting to finally get a year over year increase in sales in the MLS numbers. If we do overtake June 2007 numbers this month, we are likely to see month over sales increases for the rest of 2008. The summer months were nothing to write home about last year, so given our pending numbers, we are likely to blow those numbers out of the water locally.
Active listings also climbed last week, but as we often see before the end of the month, this number creeps up, and then drains quickly as pendings close much more rapidly at the end of the month. There is still a little mystery in the active listings number, why it takes such a large drop at the end of the month, and not really during the month. Its an oddity probably rooted in when new listings come on the market, and it appears they rarely come on immediately following the last days of a month. We will probably see that number reduced by a good 1500 at the end of June. I think it is an important psychological number to reach.
SINGLE FAMILY ONLY
For those interested in the Single family category sales only, through June 24, 2007, we were at 2,809 single family sales. For the same period in June of 2008, we are at 3169. We are outpacing last year quite nicely in single family sales. There are currently 43,382 single family listings in MLS, which is 214 more than last week at this time. We will see that number drop at the end of the month, in all likelihood. As I mentioned, ARMLS is going to be switching away from the TEMPO system in a few months, so once I have a handle on the new software, I may start breaking out single family statistics. It just wouldn't be feasible to do at this point.
OTHER NEWS
The Cash-Shiller price index came out today and recorded some abysmal price drop numbers. I won't bore you with repeating the details; you can find it on news sites anywhere on the web. While that is of no doubt concerning to many, given the amount of inventory available nationwide, price drops are going to be with us as this market shakes out. However, I think that what we are seeing on a local basis is already changing. I have ran across several homebuyers who have had to go up and over the asking the price to obtain short sales in Phoenix. Prices in many areas of the valley have been deeply affected, and I have great sympathy for anybody in that predicament. I hvae been told by my own mortgage company that they reduced my home's value by 10%. I disagree with them, but little can be done. What this does is give young families who were shut out of buying a home in 2004-2006 a chance to buy at a reasonable and affordable price. I have seen two very well known personalities from the homebuilding business who have restarted companies that will focus on starter homes in the $90K's and low $100K's. This, whether we like it or not, is a good development, as the health of our economy does rely on reasonable housing. More sales lead to higher prices, and so in a pure market sense, clearing inventory at bargain prices means we will find equilibrium in the market much sooner. It is painful, as far as pricing goes, but it is the only way forward at this point. I think the Valley's prices may be reaching their downside, as the inventory to sales ratio is being reduced as sales rise, and inventory falls. Its very possible we could reach an equilibrium in 2-3 quarters. More likely 3 quarters, given the general malaise of the economy.
Thanks for reading!
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
MLS Stats through 6/15/08
Key stats still heading in the right direction; AWC at year long high; Calendar may affect June sales.
Pending Sales: 7415 (+ 24 from last week)
Active W/ Contingency: 1530 ( +27 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8945 ( +51 from last week)
Active Listings: 52731 ( -125 from last week)
Closed Escrows 6.9.08-6.15.08 1,214 (+ 278 from last week)
Closed Month to Date (6/15/08) 2,255
We still have forward momentum in the pending contracts and active with contingency contracts; I take measurement on Tuesday morning for consistency, but I do check over the weekend for indications of where the numbers are, and the number of contracts over the weekend and into monday were well over 9100; which is very high. Also, active listings were down in the 52,600 range at the same-another good indicator. When I pulled these stats this morning, those numbers don't look quite as good. The reason for this is there were several hundred closings yesterday, that won't go into the stats until next week, and this affected the active listings, as well as causing the number of pendings to drop as they converted to sales.
In analyzing the remainder of this month, I realized that we only have this week and next as full weeks in the month. The 30th is a monday, and as such, we have a somewhat shortened last week, and it may cause the numbers to be a little lower for June than expected. We are actually on a strong pace right now, just slightly behind last year's pace on the same date, and just a tad behind May of this year's pace. The numbers are close enough that they can be accounted for by the fact that two days, 14th and 15th, are weekend dates, and don't really add to the total. In fact June this year through the 15th had a full one third be weekend days, so that probably has a little to do with the pace. That will likely straighten out over the next two weeks to some degree. Actually, if you go from June 16th of this year to last year, it is actually ahead of June's pace, but I don't like to mix up the dates that I use for official stats. The keynote is if you looked at the pace, we are ahead of June 2007 in the MLS. A very good sign.
Active listings have continued to fall ever so slightly, but they have been trending down during the month, a situation that occurred very little during most of the first half of the year. The drops usually occur towards the end of the month, if they dropped. We should see a significant drop at the end of June-or at least I am hoping we will. Sales will be good, and therefore the actives should drop off. I don't think they will fall into the 40K's this month, but we should get into position to get there maybe by the end of July. That is actually exciting.
The AWC contracts continue to increase, but not at a overly fast pace. I received a great comment from Troy Wahlberg at Keller Williams Camelback about the AWC contracts. He pointed out that short sales are usually put in the AWC category, and as those of us who have been involved in short sales know, they can take weeks and months to go through. I had addressed in an earlier post my puzzlement that new contracts were increasing at a faster rate than sales and pendings, and short sales are the likely culprit that I didn't consider. They are essentially a bottleneck in the system, as bankers take a lot of time deciding if they will take a loss or not. Thank you for the input, Troy. You can find Troy's company at http://www.kwcamelback.com/
I don't keep this particular stat regularly, but I know it is of interest to many people. The number of single family homes on the market right now is 43,168. I like to use the overall stat, as people live in condos and townhomes too, and I just prefer to keep those stats as part of the overall picture. There were 1,982 Single family homes sold from 6/1/08-6/15/08. One of the positives has been that single family homes have made up a large part of the sales figures in MLS, and I think that is a positive, as it shows that there is still relatively good demand for what is usually the highest price product among the home options. I may start tracking this stat eventually, but as realtors know, in July there is going to be a new MLS system, and I don't know how the statistics are going to work in that program, and I am not going to start a new process a few weeks before we get a whole new system that might not support my stats.
There was rumbling today about the national new home starts was down; we shall see how the statistics affects the western U.S. That usually follows in few days. The west had been showing a little better, probably on the strength of texas, but I will reserve judgement until I see that. The weekly numbers that I see, we are still scuffling along on new home sales, although new home spec inventory continues to slide according to one stat. The builders are operating pretty lean as sales have been weak, but it is necessary for them. I really blame it on people's lack of exuberance, as we are in a dismal economy, and the political situation that usually accompanies the end of a 2 term president's time in office. I will try to check in with another article later this week, if I get time.
chris
Pending Sales: 7415 (+ 24 from last week)
Active W/ Contingency: 1530 ( +27 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8945 ( +51 from last week)
Active Listings: 52731 ( -125 from last week)
Closed Escrows 6.9.08-6.15.08 1,214 (+ 278 from last week)
Closed Month to Date (6/15/08) 2,255
We still have forward momentum in the pending contracts and active with contingency contracts; I take measurement on Tuesday morning for consistency, but I do check over the weekend for indications of where the numbers are, and the number of contracts over the weekend and into monday were well over 9100; which is very high. Also, active listings were down in the 52,600 range at the same-another good indicator. When I pulled these stats this morning, those numbers don't look quite as good. The reason for this is there were several hundred closings yesterday, that won't go into the stats until next week, and this affected the active listings, as well as causing the number of pendings to drop as they converted to sales.
In analyzing the remainder of this month, I realized that we only have this week and next as full weeks in the month. The 30th is a monday, and as such, we have a somewhat shortened last week, and it may cause the numbers to be a little lower for June than expected. We are actually on a strong pace right now, just slightly behind last year's pace on the same date, and just a tad behind May of this year's pace. The numbers are close enough that they can be accounted for by the fact that two days, 14th and 15th, are weekend dates, and don't really add to the total. In fact June this year through the 15th had a full one third be weekend days, so that probably has a little to do with the pace. That will likely straighten out over the next two weeks to some degree. Actually, if you go from June 16th of this year to last year, it is actually ahead of June's pace, but I don't like to mix up the dates that I use for official stats. The keynote is if you looked at the pace, we are ahead of June 2007 in the MLS. A very good sign.
Active listings have continued to fall ever so slightly, but they have been trending down during the month, a situation that occurred very little during most of the first half of the year. The drops usually occur towards the end of the month, if they dropped. We should see a significant drop at the end of June-or at least I am hoping we will. Sales will be good, and therefore the actives should drop off. I don't think they will fall into the 40K's this month, but we should get into position to get there maybe by the end of July. That is actually exciting.
The AWC contracts continue to increase, but not at a overly fast pace. I received a great comment from Troy Wahlberg at Keller Williams Camelback about the AWC contracts. He pointed out that short sales are usually put in the AWC category, and as those of us who have been involved in short sales know, they can take weeks and months to go through. I had addressed in an earlier post my puzzlement that new contracts were increasing at a faster rate than sales and pendings, and short sales are the likely culprit that I didn't consider. They are essentially a bottleneck in the system, as bankers take a lot of time deciding if they will take a loss or not. Thank you for the input, Troy. You can find Troy's company at http://www.kwcamelback.com/
I don't keep this particular stat regularly, but I know it is of interest to many people. The number of single family homes on the market right now is 43,168. I like to use the overall stat, as people live in condos and townhomes too, and I just prefer to keep those stats as part of the overall picture. There were 1,982 Single family homes sold from 6/1/08-6/15/08. One of the positives has been that single family homes have made up a large part of the sales figures in MLS, and I think that is a positive, as it shows that there is still relatively good demand for what is usually the highest price product among the home options. I may start tracking this stat eventually, but as realtors know, in July there is going to be a new MLS system, and I don't know how the statistics are going to work in that program, and I am not going to start a new process a few weeks before we get a whole new system that might not support my stats.
There was rumbling today about the national new home starts was down; we shall see how the statistics affects the western U.S. That usually follows in few days. The west had been showing a little better, probably on the strength of texas, but I will reserve judgement until I see that. The weekly numbers that I see, we are still scuffling along on new home sales, although new home spec inventory continues to slide according to one stat. The builders are operating pretty lean as sales have been weak, but it is necessary for them. I really blame it on people's lack of exuberance, as we are in a dismal economy, and the political situation that usually accompanies the end of a 2 term president's time in office. I will try to check in with another article later this week, if I get time.
chris
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
ARMLS DATA 6/02/08- 6/08/08
Pendings Bounce Back, AWC Contracts top 1500 for first time this year!
Pending Sales: 7391 ( + 453 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1503 ( + 47 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8894 ( + 500 from last week)
Active listings: 52,856 ( -21 from last week)
Closed escrows 6.2.08-6.08.08 936 ( -850 from last week)
Month to Date Closings (6/08/08) 1001
Not a lot to say about the first week of June, other than that pendings have bounced back nicely after the end of the month reduction. This was something I was wondering about, as a weak recovery in pendings might have forecast falling sales over the summer. A strong rebound of the number shows that we can expect similar sales numbers for June and July at least. It is too early to know what August will bring. Similar numbers means we would have a substantial increase in sales over the summer of 2007, when the market really started tanking.
The other very encouraging sign is that we continue to build on the AWC number, reaching 1500 for the first time since I began recording these stats last September. Given the sales figures of last summer, it is probable that this is the highest number since last May. I hadn't started recording stats yet, so I can't be sure, but extrapolating it surely points in that direction. This is encouraging in that new contracts are coming in at a rate that replaces the AWC contracts that go pending, or in the case of agents who never change to pending, when the listings sell. This is a critical number, and of those 1503 AWC contracts, 1386 are single family homes. We do have a bit of a recovery working its way through the industry, and while it is not a gangbusters recovery, we seem to be heading in the right direction.
The stats also show that active listings have fallen a bit this week, which is fine, but I do expect that number to vacillate a bit during the month, as most real reductions come at the end of the month, and we are just as likely to see a slight rise in any given week of that number during the month. I think that the system is counting pendings still as active, although I can't seem to seperate those out in the statistics. I don't quite see ARMLS's methodology relating to Active listings. Regardless, if we can bleed some of those off during the month, all the better. We will probably lose a 1000+ at the end of the month. It would be nice to see an even bigger drop, but I doubt we will see actives slide into the 40k's this month.
One group of stats that I haven't incorporated into my regular reporting is single family dwellings separated out. The numbers get a tedious to track, so I just try to keep the market trend simple, but its worth noting that single family homes make up 43,243 of the active listings. I haven't kept track of the active listings for SFD over the past year, so it is difficult to give that number perspective, but I will probably start recording it in case I wish to start using that statistic.
I may post some other info later, but I wanted to get these stats out this morning.
chris just
Pending Sales: 7391 ( + 453 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1503 ( + 47 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8894 ( + 500 from last week)
Active listings: 52,856 ( -21 from last week)
Closed escrows 6.2.08-6.08.08 936 ( -850 from last week)
Month to Date Closings (6/08/08) 1001
Not a lot to say about the first week of June, other than that pendings have bounced back nicely after the end of the month reduction. This was something I was wondering about, as a weak recovery in pendings might have forecast falling sales over the summer. A strong rebound of the number shows that we can expect similar sales numbers for June and July at least. It is too early to know what August will bring. Similar numbers means we would have a substantial increase in sales over the summer of 2007, when the market really started tanking.
The other very encouraging sign is that we continue to build on the AWC number, reaching 1500 for the first time since I began recording these stats last September. Given the sales figures of last summer, it is probable that this is the highest number since last May. I hadn't started recording stats yet, so I can't be sure, but extrapolating it surely points in that direction. This is encouraging in that new contracts are coming in at a rate that replaces the AWC contracts that go pending, or in the case of agents who never change to pending, when the listings sell. This is a critical number, and of those 1503 AWC contracts, 1386 are single family homes. We do have a bit of a recovery working its way through the industry, and while it is not a gangbusters recovery, we seem to be heading in the right direction.
The stats also show that active listings have fallen a bit this week, which is fine, but I do expect that number to vacillate a bit during the month, as most real reductions come at the end of the month, and we are just as likely to see a slight rise in any given week of that number during the month. I think that the system is counting pendings still as active, although I can't seem to seperate those out in the statistics. I don't quite see ARMLS's methodology relating to Active listings. Regardless, if we can bleed some of those off during the month, all the better. We will probably lose a 1000+ at the end of the month. It would be nice to see an even bigger drop, but I doubt we will see actives slide into the 40k's this month.
One group of stats that I haven't incorporated into my regular reporting is single family dwellings separated out. The numbers get a tedious to track, so I just try to keep the market trend simple, but its worth noting that single family homes make up 43,243 of the active listings. I haven't kept track of the active listings for SFD over the past year, so it is difficult to give that number perspective, but I will probably start recording it in case I wish to start using that statistic.
I may post some other info later, but I wanted to get these stats out this morning.
chris just
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
ARMLS DATA 2008 Through Week 22
I have updated an earlier chart that I had created utilizing the MLS data that I have been tracking. It is not a perfect chart by any means, but it does start to get the trend lines across. Just click on the chart to get a bigger version of it.
ARMLS STATS 5/26/08-6/1/08
CLOSINGS TOP 1700 LAST WEEK; 5600+ SALES FOR MAY!
Active listings Drop sharply, Slide into 52K range!
PENDING SALES: 6938 ( -525 from Last week)
AWC Contracts: 1456 ( -16 from Last week)
TOTAL Contracts: 8394 ( -541 from Last week)
Active Listings: 52,877 ( -1225 from Last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS (weekly thru 6/1): 1,786 ( +576 from Last week)
CLOSED IN MAY: 5,652 ( April '08 Sales: 4863 , May 07= 5,774)
ARMLS Sales were up sharply for May from April, hitting the highest monthly sales since last May. The preliminary figure doesn't quite reach last May's total, but is very close, and last May was still a little before the real bubble burst. There might be a few stragglers roll in, but we probably won't catch last year's total. We are likely, given current trends, to reach June 07 sales next month, which would be the first time we have surpassed the sales figure for a month in quite some time. This is relevant, as it shows that we are maybe seeing the bottom. July and subsequent months are very poor, and we should surpass those months, and be in positive territory year-over-year for the rest of the year. This would signify that the market is returning to some normalcy.
Another significant development is that active listings took a large dip, and have now fallen into the 52K range. It might take a few more months to leave the 50K's, but that is an important milestone. It is still too high a number, but our long term figure for equalization of the market is going to be in the low 40's most likely, as sales will likely average in the 60K-70K in the near term, and go a bit higher in strong cycles. That means a six month supply of homes, which is fairly normal for most markets, it seems. It seems a lot for our market, but we are now a bit more mature, and I think the time of easy and quick sales are over, and homeowners will sit for a while longer than 60-90 days if they are trying to maximize their price, and wait for the well-heeled and qualified buyer. I am looking for a target number of 44,000 listings by the end of the year. If we have a recovery, it could happen sooner. If we have an economic stall, then the forecast will be null and void, and we will be flooded with homes.
The current activity numbers all take a beating during the final week of the month, as closings deplete the pending sales numbers. In past months, we have seen the numbers recover in the second week, so we will keep an eye on that for that trend.
One deeper number that I don't normally speak to here is the single family home sales. May 08 actually beat May 07 in that department: 4899 to 4660. That is significant, as a high percentage of May of this year's sales were single family homes. I do prefer the overall sales figures, even though they may include a few timeshares here and there. I started with that total, and to keep consistent, I will continue to use it. It is worth noting here about the single family sales though, as SFD are the largest portion of the market by a large margin, and the trend there is that we are up over last year. Less condos are being sold as people may want to hold on to them as it is cheaper living, or they may have decided to rent them out; I don't really know, but the fact remains that a lot more of the "other" product beside single family made up a larger share of 2007 sales than they did this year.
I will be posting an updated graph like the one I did a month or so ago shortly.
Some very encouraging positives can be taken from May, but I am going to anxiously await the recovery of pending home sales this week. That number will need to grow, or it means we have plateaued for the short term at May's sales. May was decent, and will be fine if we are on an uptrend, but if we fail to hold the trend, there may be deeper problems in regards to the economy that we will now be dealing with in addition to the inventory glut.
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