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chris just
just land consultants
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
MLS Stats 5.19.08-5.25.08
Sales Activity Figures Flattening but at a sustainable pace; other national statistics.
Pending Sales: 7463 (+3 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1472 ( +12 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8935 ( +15 from last week)
Active Listings: 54,102 ( -86 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,210 ( -30 from last week)
Closed MTD (5.25.08) 3,841
This week's numbers show that that we may be reaching a short term peak in buying activity. Increased pendings have leveled off, although they are still increasing very slightly. It could just be that its a holiday week, but its hard to say. We are likely to finish over 5,000 home sales in May, if the end of the month rule still holds. Last year through May 25th, we had 4,293 sales, and we finished with 5,774. The last week of April produced something like 1600 sales in a shortened week. We should expect a similar amount, and that would put close to 5,400 homes sold. Not up to last year, but not far off. Certainly it would be a nice increase from April. Listings are also creeping down slightly, and I would love to see it slide into the 53K's by next week. Its probably a reach, but its possible. Still, it is a level we haven't seen for a while, save at the Holiday at the beginning of the year, when many people put off putting homes on the market until January.
I also wanted to mention some other news. I should have commented on this last week when the figures first showed up, but I didn't read it closely. The existing home sales for April were
down nationally by 1%, as noted in this MSNBC report. What the report also notes but doesn't emphasize, and this seems to be the case whenever there is good news, is that homes sales were up 6.6% in the West. Home prices are certainly down, and may continue that way in certain locations, but our April sales figures were up sharply, even without the now infamous foreclosure sales inclusive number published by the AZ Republic a few weeks ago. This month will also be better, and if inventory can continue to slide through the summer, then we may see that prices will have stabilized, and more buyers may take the plunge and purchase.
The second bit I want to mention is the report out today the new homes sales report that came out today. Not that it was a gangbusters breakout, but new home sales for April did increase over March by 3.3%, signifying seasonal gain, but also something more important: there is some confidence in the market again for homes. It may not seem like much, but if things were still going south, you could have still seen a drop in sales as buyers wouldn't think it was a good idea. This is actually the case in the south, or more specifically, Florida, who are heavily weighted in the South region's numbers, who really has a problem. Their numbers didn't go up during this period, so that tells me we have more confidence in our market than they do right now. Our market can probably be described as not so bad; it is not good yet, but it could be much worse. We have a fairly low quantity of new home inventory, we have reached less than 1 year inventory of existing homes, our sales trends are going up, and there seems to be some some confidence re-asserting itself in our market. We still have downside risk in home values, but I can tell you that much of that is going to be weighted to the fringe areas. Again, what I would say is, not so bad. The land market is still soft, as builders are either sellers, or if buying, are only buying distressed lots.
The softer market will continue into the fall, but we may have seen the worst of it already, and we may see some solid strength over the summer. At the current market trends, we are likely to do better than June, July, and August last year, when the sales figures showed 5405, 4684, and 4302, respectively. These are numbers we can reach, and again, our current pending trend seems to show that we will.
Pending Sales: 7463 (+3 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1472 ( +12 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8935 ( +15 from last week)
Active Listings: 54,102 ( -86 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,210 ( -30 from last week)
Closed MTD (5.25.08) 3,841
This week's numbers show that that we may be reaching a short term peak in buying activity. Increased pendings have leveled off, although they are still increasing very slightly. It could just be that its a holiday week, but its hard to say. We are likely to finish over 5,000 home sales in May, if the end of the month rule still holds. Last year through May 25th, we had 4,293 sales, and we finished with 5,774. The last week of April produced something like 1600 sales in a shortened week. We should expect a similar amount, and that would put close to 5,400 homes sold. Not up to last year, but not far off. Certainly it would be a nice increase from April. Listings are also creeping down slightly, and I would love to see it slide into the 53K's by next week. Its probably a reach, but its possible. Still, it is a level we haven't seen for a while, save at the Holiday at the beginning of the year, when many people put off putting homes on the market until January.
I also wanted to mention some other news. I should have commented on this last week when the figures first showed up, but I didn't read it closely. The existing home sales for April were
down nationally by 1%, as noted in this MSNBC report. What the report also notes but doesn't emphasize, and this seems to be the case whenever there is good news, is that homes sales were up 6.6% in the West. Home prices are certainly down, and may continue that way in certain locations, but our April sales figures were up sharply, even without the now infamous foreclosure sales inclusive number published by the AZ Republic a few weeks ago. This month will also be better, and if inventory can continue to slide through the summer, then we may see that prices will have stabilized, and more buyers may take the plunge and purchase.
The second bit I want to mention is the report out today the new homes sales report that came out today. Not that it was a gangbusters breakout, but new home sales for April did increase over March by 3.3%, signifying seasonal gain, but also something more important: there is some confidence in the market again for homes. It may not seem like much, but if things were still going south, you could have still seen a drop in sales as buyers wouldn't think it was a good idea. This is actually the case in the south, or more specifically, Florida, who are heavily weighted in the South region's numbers, who really has a problem. Their numbers didn't go up during this period, so that tells me we have more confidence in our market than they do right now. Our market can probably be described as not so bad; it is not good yet, but it could be much worse. We have a fairly low quantity of new home inventory, we have reached less than 1 year inventory of existing homes, our sales trends are going up, and there seems to be some some confidence re-asserting itself in our market. We still have downside risk in home values, but I can tell you that much of that is going to be weighted to the fringe areas. Again, what I would say is, not so bad. The land market is still soft, as builders are either sellers, or if buying, are only buying distressed lots.
The softer market will continue into the fall, but we may have seen the worst of it already, and we may see some solid strength over the summer. At the current market trends, we are likely to do better than June, July, and August last year, when the sales figures showed 5405, 4684, and 4302, respectively. These are numbers we can reach, and again, our current pending trend seems to show that we will.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
UPDATE: APRIL RESALES FIGURE QUESTIONED
I just ran across an article addressing the discrepancy in the April sales figures. Butler's figures were questioned, and have been discredited a bit, for the reasons that I stated in the previous entry as being probably not reasonable as homebuyer activity, and in fact were partially lender repossessions, not sales. This is not homebuyer activity, and I was a little suspicious of that. Here is a link to the article in Republic. April was still a very good month for us, and May should be even better. Just maybe not as optimistic as Butler reported.
MLS STATS 5/12/-5/18/08
MILD IMPROVEMENT IN ALL STATISTICS FOR THE WEEK, APRIL 08 surpasses April 07 sales; First month over month gain in 3 years.
Week of 5/12-5-5/18/08
Pending Sales: 7460 ( +87 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1460 ( +46 from last week)
Total Contract: 8920 ( +133 from last week)
Active Listings: 54,188 ( -141 from last week)
Closed Escrows 5.12-5.18.08 1,240 ( +326 from last week)
Month to Date (5/18/08) 2,618
The weekly stats continue to show seasonal improvement in the resale market, with pending sales increasing even as the number of closed escrows increases. It shows we are getting a strong supply of new contracts that replace the morphing of AWC contracts into pendings, and that is an excellent sign of health. We certainly are not looking at blockbuster numbers, but we are ahead of April's pace.
I would like to say something about the AZ Republic report last week of 5585 home sales in April. That is higher than my conservative number of 4800+, which is derived from MLS sales only. I use that number for consistency, and I am glad that they are reporting a number that is even higher. I think it likely includes foreclosure sales, which I do not use, as that is often less about homebuyer activity than it is about investment activity. A home purchased at foreclosure is likely to turn up on the market in 6-12 months again, as the investor fixes it up and resells it. Not always, but that is often the case. Still a good month, as the figure they reported was higher than April 07, and the significance of that is it had not happened in 3 years. It speaks as much to the weakness by April 07 as it does to the strength of the recovery, however. We have had, even prior to the boom years, higher sales figures than that. April 2004 was 8889. That was a very good year, and many people think that was a boom time, but April 2003 was 7429, so obviously we are not back to full strength yet.
I do expect May to be a better month than April, and given the growing strength of pending sales, it could be a substantially better month, and I am looking for sales in the MLS to hit well into the 5K's. The Republic figure could hit 6K. That would be a good, and approaching the norm, as May 2002 was at 6,785. May 2003 was at 7428, so we are getting closer to a normal market as far as sales. It is not a perfect comparison, as we certainly have more homes in the city than in 2002-2003, but we have to also look at the challenging mortgage market, inflationary pressures, and negative consumer confidence. It is no small feat that we are as strong as we are, so we have to count our blessings.
The stat I haven't mentioned is the Active listings. This number is stubborn, and it has been in this range for a long while, but it is slowly slipping, and has been for several weeks. The number of listings is going to be critical to the short term value of homes, as it the Supply component of the equation, and it is still too high. It would be great to see that slip below 50K, and I think that would show a recovery in full effect. It would still be too high, but it would denote that maybe the worst was behind us.
All real estate is local, even on a micro scale, and while certain areas of the Metro area are still going to suffer price declines, as inventory and relative lack of uniqeness or features will work against them, some neighborhoods of the city are already firming up. There was an article last week about a new Blandford Home subdivision in Mesa at which people were camped out to get a chance at one of the lots. That is crazy on the surface, but the fact is that attractive neighborhoods still attract people, and this was obviously an attractive area. I could name other core areas, but the point is, certain areas are going to bear more of the brunt of coming price declines more than others. Some areas have bit the bullet already; the west valley sales are doing well, because the prices have seemed to adjust downward to where the Market will support them; Maricopa offers a mixed bag, as there are new homes selling for a lot less than resales, and that is going to affect resale prices for people that paid ultimately too much. The article a few weeks ago Pinal Co. resales was instructive though, in that the drastically increasing amount of resales can be attributed to the prices falling to where the market began to support them.
Another positive week, and a good number of sales for a middle of the month week, and I am increasingly optimistic that is a real recovery.
Week of 5/12-5-5/18/08
Pending Sales: 7460 ( +87 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1460 ( +46 from last week)
Total Contract: 8920 ( +133 from last week)
Active Listings: 54,188 ( -141 from last week)
Closed Escrows 5.12-5.18.08 1,240 ( +326 from last week)
Month to Date (5/18/08) 2,618
The weekly stats continue to show seasonal improvement in the resale market, with pending sales increasing even as the number of closed escrows increases. It shows we are getting a strong supply of new contracts that replace the morphing of AWC contracts into pendings, and that is an excellent sign of health. We certainly are not looking at blockbuster numbers, but we are ahead of April's pace.
I would like to say something about the AZ Republic report last week of 5585 home sales in April. That is higher than my conservative number of 4800+, which is derived from MLS sales only. I use that number for consistency, and I am glad that they are reporting a number that is even higher. I think it likely includes foreclosure sales, which I do not use, as that is often less about homebuyer activity than it is about investment activity. A home purchased at foreclosure is likely to turn up on the market in 6-12 months again, as the investor fixes it up and resells it. Not always, but that is often the case. Still a good month, as the figure they reported was higher than April 07, and the significance of that is it had not happened in 3 years. It speaks as much to the weakness by April 07 as it does to the strength of the recovery, however. We have had, even prior to the boom years, higher sales figures than that. April 2004 was 8889. That was a very good year, and many people think that was a boom time, but April 2003 was 7429, so obviously we are not back to full strength yet.
I do expect May to be a better month than April, and given the growing strength of pending sales, it could be a substantially better month, and I am looking for sales in the MLS to hit well into the 5K's. The Republic figure could hit 6K. That would be a good, and approaching the norm, as May 2002 was at 6,785. May 2003 was at 7428, so we are getting closer to a normal market as far as sales. It is not a perfect comparison, as we certainly have more homes in the city than in 2002-2003, but we have to also look at the challenging mortgage market, inflationary pressures, and negative consumer confidence. It is no small feat that we are as strong as we are, so we have to count our blessings.
The stat I haven't mentioned is the Active listings. This number is stubborn, and it has been in this range for a long while, but it is slowly slipping, and has been for several weeks. The number of listings is going to be critical to the short term value of homes, as it the Supply component of the equation, and it is still too high. It would be great to see that slip below 50K, and I think that would show a recovery in full effect. It would still be too high, but it would denote that maybe the worst was behind us.
All real estate is local, even on a micro scale, and while certain areas of the Metro area are still going to suffer price declines, as inventory and relative lack of uniqeness or features will work against them, some neighborhoods of the city are already firming up. There was an article last week about a new Blandford Home subdivision in Mesa at which people were camped out to get a chance at one of the lots. That is crazy on the surface, but the fact is that attractive neighborhoods still attract people, and this was obviously an attractive area. I could name other core areas, but the point is, certain areas are going to bear more of the brunt of coming price declines more than others. Some areas have bit the bullet already; the west valley sales are doing well, because the prices have seemed to adjust downward to where the Market will support them; Maricopa offers a mixed bag, as there are new homes selling for a lot less than resales, and that is going to affect resale prices for people that paid ultimately too much. The article a few weeks ago Pinal Co. resales was instructive though, in that the drastically increasing amount of resales can be attributed to the prices falling to where the market began to support them.
Another positive week, and a good number of sales for a middle of the month week, and I am increasingly optimistic that is a real recovery.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
MLS STATS 5/5/08-5/11/08
Pendings, AWC Contracts UP; Active Listings Slide again.
Week of 5/5/08-5/11/08
Pending Sales: 7373 ( +368 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1414 ( +82 from last week)
Total Cotnracts: 8787 ( +451 from last week)
Active listings: 54,329 ( -121 from last week)
Closed Escrows (5.5-5.11.08) 914 ( -713 from last week)
MTD Sales (ending 5.11.08) 1,336
First, I would like to say thank you to the couple hundred people who visited after finding my comment on the AZ Republic. I am not used to such an influx of visitors, so it was a little bit flattering to have that kind of traffic. Thank you for your kind emails. I do enjoy hearing from people, so please feel free to do contact me.
Ok, to the business at hand. We have been witnessing an increasingly strong resales recovery. The amount of new activity continues to climb, and the pendings have bounced back very quickly after a blowout sales number at the end of April. (Pendings decrease rapidly at the end of the month, as they close and become "sold".) We have reached a new high in total contracts. We may see 9000 next week. That will be a nice milestone, if we can hit it. The amount of sales went down for the week, but the first week of the month included the last days of April, so end of the month sales spike that figure. 914 is a good solid opening of the month; it will probably be the lowest weekly sales total of this month, with the possible exception of the current one. It is on pace to be a decent month. Active listings have continued to slide ever so slightly, but at least they are sliding. A little known thing occurred at the end of April, and that is that we crossed the One year of inventory line. With almost 5,000 sales in April, and 54,000 listings, if you annualize the sales, you will see that means there is now less than 12 months of inventory. That was not the case prior to April, as sales were too low and inventory too high to make that claim. It is a simple indicator, but I think relevant.
One other thing to be aware of. We are slipping into this 5000 sales a month range, which is helpful, and we may get to 6000 sometime this summer, but I think we all need to temper our enthusiasm and realize that this may be where we are going to be at for a while. Conditions are more difficult in the housing market, as buyers are going to have a more difficult time financing, and many people have no choice but to ask a higher price for their home than the market will bear. There are still only a limited number of homes on the market that are priced low enough for people's blunted enthusiam for buying, and until one of these two factors changes, we will have muted sales figures like this, instead of the 5 figure numbers of 2004-2006. This could be what our medium term potential is. It may get slightly better, but we simply are not going to go back to the velocity we had. I did just check today, and we are significantly ahead of last months pace by the same date. If that holds true to form, I will forecast that we have 5200 to 5400 sales in May. If you would like, leave a comment, and make your own prediction for total MLS sales.
So, we are still improving weekly, and hopefully we can continue to build on it.
Week of 5/5/08-5/11/08
Pending Sales: 7373 ( +368 from last week)
AWC Contracts: 1414 ( +82 from last week)
Total Cotnracts: 8787 ( +451 from last week)
Active listings: 54,329 ( -121 from last week)
Closed Escrows (5.5-5.11.08) 914 ( -713 from last week)
MTD Sales (ending 5.11.08) 1,336
First, I would like to say thank you to the couple hundred people who visited after finding my comment on the AZ Republic. I am not used to such an influx of visitors, so it was a little bit flattering to have that kind of traffic. Thank you for your kind emails. I do enjoy hearing from people, so please feel free to do contact me.
Ok, to the business at hand. We have been witnessing an increasingly strong resales recovery. The amount of new activity continues to climb, and the pendings have bounced back very quickly after a blowout sales number at the end of April. (Pendings decrease rapidly at the end of the month, as they close and become "sold".) We have reached a new high in total contracts. We may see 9000 next week. That will be a nice milestone, if we can hit it. The amount of sales went down for the week, but the first week of the month included the last days of April, so end of the month sales spike that figure. 914 is a good solid opening of the month; it will probably be the lowest weekly sales total of this month, with the possible exception of the current one. It is on pace to be a decent month. Active listings have continued to slide ever so slightly, but at least they are sliding. A little known thing occurred at the end of April, and that is that we crossed the One year of inventory line. With almost 5,000 sales in April, and 54,000 listings, if you annualize the sales, you will see that means there is now less than 12 months of inventory. That was not the case prior to April, as sales were too low and inventory too high to make that claim. It is a simple indicator, but I think relevant.
One other thing to be aware of. We are slipping into this 5000 sales a month range, which is helpful, and we may get to 6000 sometime this summer, but I think we all need to temper our enthusiasm and realize that this may be where we are going to be at for a while. Conditions are more difficult in the housing market, as buyers are going to have a more difficult time financing, and many people have no choice but to ask a higher price for their home than the market will bear. There are still only a limited number of homes on the market that are priced low enough for people's blunted enthusiam for buying, and until one of these two factors changes, we will have muted sales figures like this, instead of the 5 figure numbers of 2004-2006. This could be what our medium term potential is. It may get slightly better, but we simply are not going to go back to the velocity we had. I did just check today, and we are significantly ahead of last months pace by the same date. If that holds true to form, I will forecast that we have 5200 to 5400 sales in May. If you would like, leave a comment, and make your own prediction for total MLS sales.
So, we are still improving weekly, and hopefully we can continue to build on it.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
2008 Sales Activity Chart
Click on the graph to see it larger.
I have created a graph to give us a visual of the trend of sales activity in 2008. This particular chart shows Pending and Active with Contingency Contracts, Weekly Sales, and Active Listings. I will make an attempt to add the other stats, but I haven't used this program in this manner before, so I am just getting started! I do think this is very instructive, however. We have had a substantial increase in sales activity this year. This next week should actually increase again, as midweek it already has climbed past 8500. We will see where it measures next tuesday. You can see quickly why the prices are struggling-look at the disparity of inventory to sales and contracts.
ABC Highlights Maricopa Housing Problems by Hitting Builders
Maricopa was highlighted by ABC's nightline tonight. It was a piece about Maricopa. They sensationalized the foreclosures at 1 in 95 homes in Arizona. That is slightly more than 1 percent. Not that bad, quite honestly. 1 in 10 homes is for sale in Maricopa, the way they said it, that includes builder homes as well....okay, that is higher than we would like, but not the end of the world for a smaller growing community. "Check my earlier post-Pinal resales rise at to 1685 homes." The prices have no doubt taken a hit, much as we have throughout the valley. This is really a hit piece on the builders, making them out to be at fault. Jay Butler's comments may have been gleaned over, but if I was a builder, I would think twice about subscribing to his services- I think he sells his abilities as an expert. He just sandbagged them, in my opinion. He accused the builders of selling mortgages, not homes.
Yes, lots of people have given back homes, because they were buying as investments, not as homes, and really had no ability to hold the home if they couldn't resell it. The town is still growing and builders do have a significant price advantage over the resales in some cases, as they can undercut easily a home that sold for $26o,000 that is probably worth 160,000 now. Let me tell you a story about my uncle. He bought a nice home in a fringe community and a year later his life situation changed, and he wanted to move back to a smaller home closer in. He was quite annoyed that the builder had IDENTICAL homes to his just down the road for the same price he paid a year and a half earlier. Another story for ABC about overbuilding in Maricopa? Another hapless buyer caught up in the Great Housing Bust of 2007-2008? No........
Well folks, that was Surprise 1999, at Bell and Dysart. Buy a home in a new fringe area, expect to live in it a for while, because the builder has pricing power, and that means you shouldn't expect to sell for much more than you bought for in the first five years. By 2004, that house was worth double the $150K he built it for in 1999. But in 2001-2002, it was only worth what he paid for it.
Another thing, the national pending sales figures were supposedly down across the country. That may be, but check the stats, and Arizona's were up and getting stronger. As a matter of fact, we are currently sitting at 8586 pending and AWC contracts, a number that is higher than the end of April, prior to a large last week of pendings converting to sales of over 1200. We have recovered quite nicely from that in the last three days, don't you think? We are not in 2005 territory, but we seem to be getting better on a lot of fronts, so take this national news with a grain of salt, as they try to infect us with more negative sentiment. The truth is, Maricopa offers an incredible value in housing, including new and resales, and if it was doing so bad, builders wouldn't be opening up new subdivisions in east Maricopa.
ABC made mention of the fact that 1 in 5 was sold to an investor. How is that exactly the builder's fault? If someone has the money to buy, why shouldn't they be allowed to buy? They did curb investors in 2005, but it is fairly typical of the media to blame business first, and the consumer is faultless.
Regardless, Maricopa looks like it is doing pretty good. There are a lot of over priced homes for sale, but there are also a lot of reasonably priced homes for sale, and there seems to be a lot of commercial construction going in. It isn't perfect, but that is a nice community being built down there, and this was a character assassination of Maricopa.
This report reminded me a lot of those Jonathan Hunt pieces on Fox News that absolutely go over the top in trying to create news. Do you remember the "city paralyzed by fear of snipers" story he did on us a few years ago? It was ridiculous then, and this didn't seem to be much different.
Sorry, I had to spout off on this, because it completely misses what is really happening there-a town of a few thousand having grown to 40,000 people and looking like it will be just fine.
Yes, lots of people have given back homes, because they were buying as investments, not as homes, and really had no ability to hold the home if they couldn't resell it. The town is still growing and builders do have a significant price advantage over the resales in some cases, as they can undercut easily a home that sold for $26o,000 that is probably worth 160,000 now. Let me tell you a story about my uncle. He bought a nice home in a fringe community and a year later his life situation changed, and he wanted to move back to a smaller home closer in. He was quite annoyed that the builder had IDENTICAL homes to his just down the road for the same price he paid a year and a half earlier. Another story for ABC about overbuilding in Maricopa? Another hapless buyer caught up in the Great Housing Bust of 2007-2008? No........
Well folks, that was Surprise 1999, at Bell and Dysart. Buy a home in a new fringe area, expect to live in it a for while, because the builder has pricing power, and that means you shouldn't expect to sell for much more than you bought for in the first five years. By 2004, that house was worth double the $150K he built it for in 1999. But in 2001-2002, it was only worth what he paid for it.
Another thing, the national pending sales figures were supposedly down across the country. That may be, but check the stats, and Arizona's were up and getting stronger. As a matter of fact, we are currently sitting at 8586 pending and AWC contracts, a number that is higher than the end of April, prior to a large last week of pendings converting to sales of over 1200. We have recovered quite nicely from that in the last three days, don't you think? We are not in 2005 territory, but we seem to be getting better on a lot of fronts, so take this national news with a grain of salt, as they try to infect us with more negative sentiment. The truth is, Maricopa offers an incredible value in housing, including new and resales, and if it was doing so bad, builders wouldn't be opening up new subdivisions in east Maricopa.
ABC made mention of the fact that 1 in 5 was sold to an investor. How is that exactly the builder's fault? If someone has the money to buy, why shouldn't they be allowed to buy? They did curb investors in 2005, but it is fairly typical of the media to blame business first, and the consumer is faultless.
Regardless, Maricopa looks like it is doing pretty good. There are a lot of over priced homes for sale, but there are also a lot of reasonably priced homes for sale, and there seems to be a lot of commercial construction going in. It isn't perfect, but that is a nice community being built down there, and this was a character assassination of Maricopa.
This report reminded me a lot of those Jonathan Hunt pieces on Fox News that absolutely go over the top in trying to create news. Do you remember the "city paralyzed by fear of snipers" story he did on us a few years ago? It was ridiculous then, and this didn't seem to be much different.
Sorry, I had to spout off on this, because it completely misses what is really happening there-a town of a few thousand having grown to 40,000 people and looking like it will be just fine.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
MLS Stats 4-30-08 to 5-04-08
April Sales Finish Strong, Pendings and Actives Hold; Inventory Falls almost 2% in a week!
Pending Sales: 7004 ( -102 from last week)
Active with Contingency: 1332 ( +3 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8336 ( -99 from last week)
Active Listings: 54450 ( -1022 from last week)
Closed 4.28-5.4: 1627 ( +530 from last week)
MTD Closings (As of 5.4.08) 402
End of April updated Sales: 4,880
Obviously, we had a very good week with high number of closings occurring at the end of the month to put us at a very solid number for the month of April. What I think is even more impressive is that even with a very large number of pendings turning into sales last week, we still basically replaced all of the contracts. The difference of 99 is statistically insignificant, and we will probably press ahead with even higher pending figures over the next few weeks. It always takes a week or so to recover in pendings, but if you look at the active with contingency contracts, they are holding their ground very well. Another positive is that Active listings had a steep decline last week, by over a 1000. We have arrived at a several month low in listings, and we may see some further drops through May. It is statistically only about 8% off its highs, but it is decreasing. I will be impressed when it reaches 45,000 listings. That will tell us we are on to something.
These numbers were supposed to improve seasonally, and they are not so great as to imply we are out of the housing mess, but they do imply it is not getting worse, and is likely getting somewhat better. We are still going to face price declines in some areas, and the market is still bloated, but we do have a nice downward trend developing in inventory, a solid pending sales figure, new contracts coming in at an acceptable sustainable pace, and from what I hear, a fairly strong maortgage application market. This, coupled with the fed's armtwisting banks to loosen credit standards a bit should be seen as encouraging signs of an improving market. Builders have also adjusted by decreasing their spec home inventory to its lowest levels since 2005, from what I understand. They have also adjusted prices to match the market demand, and there are some good new home deals out there.
I am guardedly optimistic about the next several quarters, if nothing else comes along to kill the economy. Oil prices today hit another new record, and this is going to weigh on the economy, as working people are simply going to be unable to drive very far from their job locations to a home. This is a concern. We will have to see how that plays out. Sometimes, unexpected things happen as a result, like creating a new demand for fuel-efficient cars. Or that infill development will elicit high demand, as people seek new homes within the city.
Pending Sales: 7004 ( -102 from last week)
Active with Contingency: 1332 ( +3 from last week)
Total Contracts: 8336 ( -99 from last week)
Active Listings: 54450 ( -1022 from last week)
Closed 4.28-5.4: 1627 ( +530 from last week)
MTD Closings (As of 5.4.08) 402
End of April updated Sales: 4,880
Obviously, we had a very good week with high number of closings occurring at the end of the month to put us at a very solid number for the month of April. What I think is even more impressive is that even with a very large number of pendings turning into sales last week, we still basically replaced all of the contracts. The difference of 99 is statistically insignificant, and we will probably press ahead with even higher pending figures over the next few weeks. It always takes a week or so to recover in pendings, but if you look at the active with contingency contracts, they are holding their ground very well. Another positive is that Active listings had a steep decline last week, by over a 1000. We have arrived at a several month low in listings, and we may see some further drops through May. It is statistically only about 8% off its highs, but it is decreasing. I will be impressed when it reaches 45,000 listings. That will tell us we are on to something.
These numbers were supposed to improve seasonally, and they are not so great as to imply we are out of the housing mess, but they do imply it is not getting worse, and is likely getting somewhat better. We are still going to face price declines in some areas, and the market is still bloated, but we do have a nice downward trend developing in inventory, a solid pending sales figure, new contracts coming in at an acceptable sustainable pace, and from what I hear, a fairly strong maortgage application market. This, coupled with the fed's armtwisting banks to loosen credit standards a bit should be seen as encouraging signs of an improving market. Builders have also adjusted by decreasing their spec home inventory to its lowest levels since 2005, from what I understand. They have also adjusted prices to match the market demand, and there are some good new home deals out there.
I am guardedly optimistic about the next several quarters, if nothing else comes along to kill the economy. Oil prices today hit another new record, and this is going to weigh on the economy, as working people are simply going to be unable to drive very far from their job locations to a home. This is a concern. We will have to see how that plays out. Sometimes, unexpected things happen as a result, like creating a new demand for fuel-efficient cars. Or that infill development will elicit high demand, as people seek new homes within the city.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Pinal County Resales Showing Surprising Vibrancy
There was a great article in the Phoenix Business Journal concerning resale homes in Pinal County. While we weren't watching, they have had a little renaissance in their market. If you look at sales figures from third quarter to first quarter this year, you will see that resales have more than doubled, and almost tripled. The article goes on to compare that number to the all time high in 2005, and it is pretty encouraging to see how close those numbers are. Pinal County is one of the legs of future growth in this state, and we are seeing why. When it offers reasonably priced housing, as is the case again, this is a very attractive incentive for people to live there.
APRIL MLS CLOSINGS-PRELIMINARY FIGURES
April Sales Total- How did we finish?
Sales figures for the month of April are in....there will be a few stragglers, so I expect this number to go up a bit, but this gives us a good indication. We had a blowout last three days of the month, and finished at a very respectable 4,804. That beats March handily, and while it is no where near the 5,475 from April 07, very few people would expect it to be. It is not where we need to be long term either, but it is a good step. If you annualize that rate, it brings us down below a 12 month supply of homes on the market. That is a bench mark we haven't seen in a while, and I think it is significant. This is a very encouraging number given our market right now. The fact we have experience four straight months of growth, that activity is picking up, that active listings are starting to slip ever so slightly, and that the financial markets seem to stabilized may point us to a fourth quarter recovery. I have not been impressed with new home sales figures as of yet; they seem to be just treading water. When there are some signs of new home purchases showing some robustness, I will feel a lot better.
Sales figures for the month of April are in....there will be a few stragglers, so I expect this number to go up a bit, but this gives us a good indication. We had a blowout last three days of the month, and finished at a very respectable 4,804. That beats March handily, and while it is no where near the 5,475 from April 07, very few people would expect it to be. It is not where we need to be long term either, but it is a good step. If you annualize that rate, it brings us down below a 12 month supply of homes on the market. That is a bench mark we haven't seen in a while, and I think it is significant. This is a very encouraging number given our market right now. The fact we have experience four straight months of growth, that activity is picking up, that active listings are starting to slip ever so slightly, and that the financial markets seem to stabilized may point us to a fourth quarter recovery. I have not been impressed with new home sales figures as of yet; they seem to be just treading water. When there are some signs of new home purchases showing some robustness, I will feel a lot better.
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