MLS Stats through 4/13/08

Pending + Active with Contingency top 8000!

Week of 4/7/08-4/13/08


Pending Transactions: 6861 (+587 from last week)

AWC Contracts: 1251 (+79 from last week)

Total Contracts: 8112 (+666 from last week)

Closed Transaction 4/7- 4/13/08 743 ( -312 from last week)

Active Listings: 55760 (+59 from last week)

Month To Date Closings (4/13/08) 1372


We are continuing to see sales activity rise in the Valley, but we have still not seen a great surge in closings. Certainly our closings have increased , as March was a much better month than January or February, but it seems the pending sales have become somewhat stretched out, and are not falling in a 45 day window. We have what is getting to be a very healthy number of pending sales, which is practically double the number for most of the second half of last year, but we haven't yet seen this show up in comparable closings. We also have the AWC contracts, which have almost tripled since the beginning of the year, and they seem to be contributing to the vastly increased pendings, but we seem to have longer escrows for many of these deals, as this increased trend started in the first quarter. Perhaps the end of April will yield a large crop of closings. We have about two full business weeks to make our numbers, and we are on a poor pace for closings so far. Certainly the last week will yield better results, but so far, the month is soft for closings. The sheer amount of pendings will eventually have to show up somewhere. They are there, they just aren't affecting closings yet.

Another troubling aspect is that I felt we would be in prime inventory cutting season right now, and we have done almost nothing to reduce inventory on the market. It is essentially flat, and not growing any measureable amount, but we are not reducing. We may still see increasing sales, but that kind of inventory means prices stay flat or even decrease, even if gross sales are high. It is the number that I fear the most, as it means that more people are still trying to dump their homes, even in a poor sales environment. That doesn't speak well to the economy or people's confidence in owning a home.

Generally speaking, the new home sales figures for the past week improved sharply, and we are seeing a lot less cancellations, which has been a big problem for many of the new home sellers. They have also generally done a good job of cutting backing inventory and subdivisions, which reduces their operating cost, and limits the downward pressure on prices due to oversupply. We would all like to see more activity, but they are running lean right now, and hopefully their turnaround isn't too far down the road. They have certainly reduced prices accordingly, and you can buy new housing in some areas of Phoenix proper in the mid-100's again. Didn't think I would be saying that again. Also, I went by a subdivision in East Maricopa a few weeks ago with homes starting in the $80k's...that is a tremendous value, and eventually people will realize that fact. One new housing index I observe shows that while we are down from last year's first quarter, we are at a level that suggests that the new home market is poised to do better then the last three quarters of last year.

Overall, a better week in many respects-sharply higher buying activity specificially- but I would like to see those mid month weekly sales touching in the 1000's again. That ensures a healthy number at the end of the month. It is tax time, and that may have something to do with the poor showing so far, but maybe this next week will post improved sales.