MLS STATS 4/14-4/20/08

Pending Contracts Top 7000, Inventory Falls Slightly

Pending Contracts: 7067 ( +206 from last week)

AWC Contracts: 1254 ( +3 from last week)

Total Contracts: 8321 ( +209 from last week)

Closed Escrows 4/14-4/20/08 1081 ( +338 from last week)

Active Listings: 55,587 ( -173 from last week)

Month to Date Closings 4/20/08 2,480


Buying activity is still growing, according to the MLS, as we have reached a new high for the year in pending sales. Sales are stretching out longer than what we would expect however, as closed escrows have been slow to swell at the same rate of increase as contracts. It occurred to me that this phenomenon is likely linked to there being quite a few short sales in the pending category, which could explain why these pendings are taking so long. I don't know that all realtors mark short sales as pending contracts once their seller has agreed to it or not-I have recently seen it done both ways-but I am certain a percentage are being considered pendings, and as I have found, short sales tend to drag out for many more weeks than normal. I doubt that is a comprehensive answer as to why we have doubled pendings, yet have only marginally increased sales. The pendings growth has been impressive, while sales growth, while it is getting better, has not followed the same trend line. April is not going to be a breakout month for sales, although it might surpass March. We still have increasing pending sales figures, which point to us being in a recovery mode, but we still are in a softer market than most of us would like. Another positive, although it is not a trend yet, is that active listings went down. They haven't climbed substantially for some months, but neither have they retreated. We would need to fall under 50,000 for me to feel that we are turning the corner on this market, and we have not been able to shave this number despite all of our gains this year so far. Maybe this is a start. The important thing is that pendings continue to grow, which they seem to be doing. You can't get to closings without first getting to pendings, and as long as we can point to pending growth, we can take it as a sign of better things to come. As far as pricing goes, despite increased sales, the amount of inventory dictates we may see prices slide a bit further until inventory comes into line. That doesn't mean that the home someone is purchasing is going to down in value-it is still an excellent time to buy given prices and interest rate, and the relative amount of homes that are now underpriced, and a broad selection of them-there are enough good deals out there, and those will simply sell first, and the market price deals will not. Over pricing is still the reason so many homes are on the market, and it will affect how long it sits on the market, and ultimtaely affecting long term pricing.