July ARMLS statistics August 3, 2010
Pending: 9,859
Pending Sfam: 8,481
AWC: 6,602
AWC SFAM: 5,640
Closed July: 7,100
Closed Sfam: 6,012
Active: 36,037
Active Sfam: 28,941
July numbers, as expected, were down considerably from June's peak. June's numbers pulled many sales forward, stripping them from July sales. Many sales of properties that were in line to receive the home buyer tax credit, especially short sales, had to be done in June, and as such there was great pressure to get them done by then. The hangover effect of this is pretty apparent in July's numbers. It is not unexpected, but I think that it appears that July was still weaker than expected. We will have to wait and see if this is a trend, but these are not numbers that I am happy with. We will want to see a rebound in Sales in August, but I would expect that we will not see over 8000 sales per month for the rest of the year, other than September.
New home sales might be a culprit in this as well. Builders have become very aggressive, and are able to compete on price pretty well. As people start comparing the available used to new inventory, new inventory starts to look decent, and builders success in selling has a negative effect on the prices of pre-existing inventory and the inventory itself. That being said I don't think that new home sales were so great that they affected existing sales this much. It was a bit of a slow month, I think, no way around that. We will want to see some pick up in August.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
ARMLS STATS June 2010
****JUNE CLOSINGS HIT 9,310****
Biggest Sales Month since August 2005!
Inventory Flat and Pendings showing downward trend
Pending Sales: 10,477 ( -997 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 9,036 ( -862 from last week)
AWC: 7,303 ( -244 from last week)
AWC Single Fam: 6,258 (-213 from last week)
Closed 6/28-7/4 2,711 ( +792 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,333 ( +698 from last week)
Active: 34,226 ( -14 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,246 ( +65 from last week)
CLOSED JUNE: 9,310
Closed Single fam: 7893
June Sales finished stronger than expected, topping 9,000 decisively. June may be our peak for the year, as tax credit driven sales are now mostly used up. The sales numbers were excellent, however, and there have not been as many as 9300 sales since August of 2005, when there were 10,003 closed listings. That was the boom year, obviously, and the median price was literally twice what it is now, but we are showing good demand for home purchasing in the valley. Even if it falls off somewhat, we will be okay.
That said, I do expect that we will not maintain this level of sales through the summer. There is simply not going to be as strong of demand with the expiration of the housing credit and lackluster performance in the creation of jobs by industry; consumer confidence is not what it should be for a strong recovery to occur. Single family homes are also facing increasing competition from competitively priced new home sales. The builders are seeing opportunities again, and are working at taking their share of the market. My feeling is that we are going to go sideways a bit until job creation picks up. Business may not cooperate with this, until after the elections in the fall. I am not sure that we are seeing Business embrace the Democrats plan for them, and they take a wait and see approach hoping that a more business friendly congress is swept into office in November before making major investments in new hires. It is still a big question mark. What we have heard is that big business' coffers have never been more full, but so far they are not taking the plunge and investing it in new production.
I don't say that to be gloomy; this was not going to be a rocket to the moon recovery by any means. We as a metro area are growing, and so far we are absorbing the inventory pretty well. The average price of a home sold went up from May's $177,288 to $179,976 in June; it is also up from first quarter's $176,518; perhaps it is showing some movement in the upper end, pulling average prices higher. Certainly, the bulk of the activity is in the lower reaches of the market, which is why we see the median number going lower, but the gross dollar sales and the average are moving up, and that is something we should be encouraged about.
While the sales in June should be celebrated, the numbers that bear watching are the pending numbers. How far are they going to fall? What kind of activity are we going to have for the next three months, which are traditionally the last three strong months until march rolls around again? What are prices going to do? There are questions marks. We have 3.6 months supply of inventory, and it is stubbornly sticking there. It is not too high, but I don't know anyone in our industry who wouldn't like to see about 5000 listings peeled off there overnight; it would encourage higher prices and more construction.
We can be happy for the moment that we have reached a level of demand we haven't seen for almost five years. We have shown good consistent high demand this year, and it seems like it is going to continue. We have likely reached a short term peak for this year, but if we can stabilize not far below the levels we have been at, we are still going to have an excellent year.
Biggest Sales Month since August 2005!
Inventory Flat and Pendings showing downward trend
Pending Sales: 10,477 ( -997 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 9,036 ( -862 from last week)
AWC: 7,303 ( -244 from last week)
AWC Single Fam: 6,258 (-213 from last week)
Closed 6/28-7/4 2,711 ( +792 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,333 ( +698 from last week)
Active: 34,226 ( -14 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,246 ( +65 from last week)
CLOSED JUNE: 9,310
Closed Single fam: 7893
June Sales finished stronger than expected, topping 9,000 decisively. June may be our peak for the year, as tax credit driven sales are now mostly used up. The sales numbers were excellent, however, and there have not been as many as 9300 sales since August of 2005, when there were 10,003 closed listings. That was the boom year, obviously, and the median price was literally twice what it is now, but we are showing good demand for home purchasing in the valley. Even if it falls off somewhat, we will be okay.
That said, I do expect that we will not maintain this level of sales through the summer. There is simply not going to be as strong of demand with the expiration of the housing credit and lackluster performance in the creation of jobs by industry; consumer confidence is not what it should be for a strong recovery to occur. Single family homes are also facing increasing competition from competitively priced new home sales. The builders are seeing opportunities again, and are working at taking their share of the market. My feeling is that we are going to go sideways a bit until job creation picks up. Business may not cooperate with this, until after the elections in the fall. I am not sure that we are seeing Business embrace the Democrats plan for them, and they take a wait and see approach hoping that a more business friendly congress is swept into office in November before making major investments in new hires. It is still a big question mark. What we have heard is that big business' coffers have never been more full, but so far they are not taking the plunge and investing it in new production.
I don't say that to be gloomy; this was not going to be a rocket to the moon recovery by any means. We as a metro area are growing, and so far we are absorbing the inventory pretty well. The average price of a home sold went up from May's $177,288 to $179,976 in June; it is also up from first quarter's $176,518; perhaps it is showing some movement in the upper end, pulling average prices higher. Certainly, the bulk of the activity is in the lower reaches of the market, which is why we see the median number going lower, but the gross dollar sales and the average are moving up, and that is something we should be encouraged about.
While the sales in June should be celebrated, the numbers that bear watching are the pending numbers. How far are they going to fall? What kind of activity are we going to have for the next three months, which are traditionally the last three strong months until march rolls around again? What are prices going to do? There are questions marks. We have 3.6 months supply of inventory, and it is stubbornly sticking there. It is not too high, but I don't know anyone in our industry who wouldn't like to see about 5000 listings peeled off there overnight; it would encourage higher prices and more construction.
We can be happy for the moment that we have reached a level of demand we haven't seen for almost five years. We have shown good consistent high demand this year, and it seems like it is going to continue. We have likely reached a short term peak for this year, but if we can stabilize not far below the levels we have been at, we are still going to have an excellent year.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
MLS STATS 6/21-6/27/10
Sales closing in on 9000 for June
Inventory Rises in June, but new listings fall.
Pending: 11,474 down
Pending Sfam: 9,898 down
AWC: 7,547 down
AWC Single Fam: 6,471 down
Closed 6/21-6/27/10: 1919 Up
Closed Single Fam: 1,635 Up
Active Listings: 34,240 Up
Active Sfam: 27,181 Up
MTD CLOSED: 7,401
Single Fam Closed: 6,244
I apologize for missing a few weeks in the middle of the month; I am also a lot busier now, and some things just have to take a back seat. As we get closer to the end of the month we are getting a lot better picture of where we are headed. Some of them are good, some are mediocre.
MLS sales are going to post another decent month in June. I think it is likely we will reach 9000 sales, but we are not quite there yet. Prices are likely to have fallen a bit in June, after the increases in May, as the tax credit effect will fall off a bit. People anxious to get the tax credit were less likely to negotiate as hard if they were up against the wall to get their deal in place in April, most of which would have closed in May. It puffed up prices a bit at that point. We are anticipating a slight fall from that point.
I was a little taken aback by the rise in inventory; its not large but its big enough to take notice of. I don't like the idea that inventory is rising, but when I went deeper into the statistics, I found that new listings in June are actually lagging behind June '09, and still behind May'10, so I am not as concerned about it. In April there was a huge uptick in new listings over last year, and May showed a sizeable gain as well, so we are probably experiencing a little hangover from that. This June is showing a decrease so far, as inventory was probably frontloaded by the tax credit the same way sales were. It bears watching.
We have been seeing some flagging in the economy which has eroded consumer confidence to some degree, and will probably also affect housing. I would expect to see flat pricing throughout the summer, but also see continued strong demand for homes available at lower prices. The 0-200,000 range continues to be strong; the demand for upscale homes seem to be lagging to some degree.
I have been told by contacts in the home rental market that demand is very strong for rental homes, and supply is actually tight, which has been leading to stronger rental rates. I don't know if that is true valley wide, but it was a "boots on the ground" report from a fairly large rental agency. If you have any input or knowledge about this, I am all ears.
We are watching for home sales to cross over 9000 this month, which is very possible, but I am going to expect to see numbers fall slightly in July. The urgency of the tax credit is over, and I think buyers will bide their time while watching prices. This keeps some people on the sidelines, postponing their buying decisions, but i think that people who want a home will still be buying one.
Thanks for Reading!
Inventory Rises in June, but new listings fall.
Pending: 11,474 down
Pending Sfam: 9,898 down
AWC: 7,547 down
AWC Single Fam: 6,471 down
Closed 6/21-6/27/10: 1919 Up
Closed Single Fam: 1,635 Up
Active Listings: 34,240 Up
Active Sfam: 27,181 Up
MTD CLOSED: 7,401
Single Fam Closed: 6,244
I apologize for missing a few weeks in the middle of the month; I am also a lot busier now, and some things just have to take a back seat. As we get closer to the end of the month we are getting a lot better picture of where we are headed. Some of them are good, some are mediocre.
MLS sales are going to post another decent month in June. I think it is likely we will reach 9000 sales, but we are not quite there yet. Prices are likely to have fallen a bit in June, after the increases in May, as the tax credit effect will fall off a bit. People anxious to get the tax credit were less likely to negotiate as hard if they were up against the wall to get their deal in place in April, most of which would have closed in May. It puffed up prices a bit at that point. We are anticipating a slight fall from that point.
I was a little taken aback by the rise in inventory; its not large but its big enough to take notice of. I don't like the idea that inventory is rising, but when I went deeper into the statistics, I found that new listings in June are actually lagging behind June '09, and still behind May'10, so I am not as concerned about it. In April there was a huge uptick in new listings over last year, and May showed a sizeable gain as well, so we are probably experiencing a little hangover from that. This June is showing a decrease so far, as inventory was probably frontloaded by the tax credit the same way sales were. It bears watching.
We have been seeing some flagging in the economy which has eroded consumer confidence to some degree, and will probably also affect housing. I would expect to see flat pricing throughout the summer, but also see continued strong demand for homes available at lower prices. The 0-200,000 range continues to be strong; the demand for upscale homes seem to be lagging to some degree.
I have been told by contacts in the home rental market that demand is very strong for rental homes, and supply is actually tight, which has been leading to stronger rental rates. I don't know if that is true valley wide, but it was a "boots on the ground" report from a fairly large rental agency. If you have any input or knowledge about this, I am all ears.
We are watching for home sales to cross over 9000 this month, which is very possible, but I am going to expect to see numbers fall slightly in July. The urgency of the tax credit is over, and I think buyers will bide their time while watching prices. This keeps some people on the sidelines, postponing their buying decisions, but i think that people who want a home will still be buying one.
Thanks for Reading!
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