PENDINGS RISING SHARPLY, TOP 7300!
PENDINGS SALES: 7303 ( +670 from last week)
PENDING Single FAM: 6622 ( +594 from last week)
AWC: 1161 ( +87 from last week)
AWC SINGLE FAM: 1052 ( +79 from last week)
CLOSED (1/25/09) 907 ( -152 from last week)
CLOSED SINGLE FAM: 823 ( -150 from last week)
CLOSED THROUGH 1/25 3,112
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSED: 2,829
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 52,408 ( -89 from last week)
ACTIVE SINGLE FAM: 42,880 ( -100 from last week)
I will comment on these statistics at a later time....
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
ARMLS STATS 1/12/18/09
PENDINGS UP SHARPLY AGAIN, INVENTORY FALLS SLIGHTLY
NEW CONTRACTS RISE OVER 8%*
PENDING SALES: 6633 ( +424 from last week)
PENDING SALES (Single Fam.) 6028 ( +366 from last week)
AWC: 1,074 ( +79 from last week)
(AWC Single Family) 982 ( +72 from last week)
ClOSED (thru 1/18/09) 1059 ( +220 from last week)
Closed Single Fam. 973 ( + 223 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,497 ( -12 from last week)
Single Family 42, 980 ( -119 from last week)
CLOSED MTD 1/18/09: 2,133 ( Closed thru 1/20/08: 1,503)
Single Family 1,914
This past week showed another spectacular improvement in demand factors for single family homes. Pending sales showed another sharp rise, and AWC contracts are showing a renewing supply of fresh contracts. This uptick is happening sooner in the year than it did in the past, which gives me a lot of hope that when we reach the seasonally better second quarter, real inventory reduction will manifest itself. We are likely to see something approaching 5000 sales this January, given our progess so far-a pace that would put us far past last January's total of 3,029.
More importantly than the January closing numbers is the forecasting numbers-pendings and AWC contracts. At this same point last January- or close to it on January 22nd-we had only 3,836 pending home sales, and 620 pending sales. When you look at the difference in these figures, you can see the definite improvement in the "demand" aspect. We still have far too much in the "supply" side, but I was encouraged that it fell a bit-I expected that we would continue to increase supply, but maybe enough demand is surfacing to keep up with the amount of listings that traditionally occur at this time. We are several thousand listings short of last year at this time-still insignificant statistically, but given the huge trove of foreclosures we have had to deal with, I again am encouraged that we are keeping pace, and yes, maybe even making some headway. If we can hold ground during January and February, we really have a chance to make some real dents in inventory starting in March.
I am also encouraged that I have started to receive sign calls on properties again-it has been a while, but people are maybe searching out places to put money they are shielding from the stock market.
If you are an investor-even a small investor- there are opportunities to buy land at some bargain prices now. You still have to hunt a little bit, but excellent bargains can be had.
This week is a key week setting up the end of the month sales-if we can have a very solid week, we can possibly foresee surpassing 5000 sales this month. I am again, cautiously optimistic that we are seeing demand recovery in the real estate market occurring. A key point of this is that January 0f 2004 (the first year of the boom) only showed 5,103 closings. Imagine that we might reach that this month? Even the crazy year of 2005, in the midst of the boom, there were only 6590 home sales in January. We still have tremendous inventory challenges, but if we have strong demand, we will make progress on that. I am optimistic that we are entering a period of market correction.
NEW CONTRACTS RISE OVER 8%*
PENDING SALES: 6633 ( +424 from last week)
PENDING SALES (Single Fam.) 6028 ( +366 from last week)
AWC: 1,074 ( +79 from last week)
(AWC Single Family) 982 ( +72 from last week)
ClOSED (thru 1/18/09) 1059 ( +220 from last week)
Closed Single Fam. 973 ( + 223 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,497 ( -12 from last week)
Single Family 42, 980 ( -119 from last week)
CLOSED MTD 1/18/09: 2,133 ( Closed thru 1/20/08: 1,503)
Single Family 1,914
This past week showed another spectacular improvement in demand factors for single family homes. Pending sales showed another sharp rise, and AWC contracts are showing a renewing supply of fresh contracts. This uptick is happening sooner in the year than it did in the past, which gives me a lot of hope that when we reach the seasonally better second quarter, real inventory reduction will manifest itself. We are likely to see something approaching 5000 sales this January, given our progess so far-a pace that would put us far past last January's total of 3,029.
More importantly than the January closing numbers is the forecasting numbers-pendings and AWC contracts. At this same point last January- or close to it on January 22nd-we had only 3,836 pending home sales, and 620 pending sales. When you look at the difference in these figures, you can see the definite improvement in the "demand" aspect. We still have far too much in the "supply" side, but I was encouraged that it fell a bit-I expected that we would continue to increase supply, but maybe enough demand is surfacing to keep up with the amount of listings that traditionally occur at this time. We are several thousand listings short of last year at this time-still insignificant statistically, but given the huge trove of foreclosures we have had to deal with, I again am encouraged that we are keeping pace, and yes, maybe even making some headway. If we can hold ground during January and February, we really have a chance to make some real dents in inventory starting in March.
I am also encouraged that I have started to receive sign calls on properties again-it has been a while, but people are maybe searching out places to put money they are shielding from the stock market.
If you are an investor-even a small investor- there are opportunities to buy land at some bargain prices now. You still have to hunt a little bit, but excellent bargains can be had.
This week is a key week setting up the end of the month sales-if we can have a very solid week, we can possibly foresee surpassing 5000 sales this month. I am again, cautiously optimistic that we are seeing demand recovery in the real estate market occurring. A key point of this is that January 0f 2004 (the first year of the boom) only showed 5,103 closings. Imagine that we might reach that this month? Even the crazy year of 2005, in the midst of the boom, there were only 6590 home sales in January. We still have tremendous inventory challenges, but if we have strong demand, we will make progress on that. I am optimistic that we are entering a period of market correction.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
MLS STATS 1/5/09-1/11/09
Pendings, AWC Up Sharply, Inventory Rises Slightly
Closings fall in normally light first week of the month
Pending Sales: 6,209 ( +515 from last week)
Pending Single Fam: 5,662 ( +495 from last week)
AWC: 995 ( + 87 from last week)
Single Fam. AWC: 910 ( + 74 from last week)
Closed 12/5-12/11/09 839 ( -528 from last week)
Closed Single Fam.: 750 ( -463 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,509 ( +483 from last week)
Single Fam Active: 43,099 ( +272 from last week)
Closed MTD: 1,045 same date 2008: 874
Single Family 942 same date 2008: 745
These stats are showing a growing amount of activity in early 2009-far better than 2008. At this same time last year, there were 3,656 pending sales, and only 560 AWC contracts. This includes a high number of short sales, as stats elsewhere have shown, but if they are pending on MLS, then they are being purchased by someone who wants the home. I think we can expect to see much stronger sales start to build even in January. It will not likely be 5600 as in December, but the numbers should be far better than 2008. I am going to guess 4500+. 4000 would be an okay month, not great, but okay.
The number of active listings also increased, but that is expected as January is a month many people put their homes on the market. It hasn't risen sharply, and there is going to come a time when the rising pendings and AWC contracts absorb the incoming new listings. That may not be this month, but we are creating a much stronger baseline than last year, and it would follow that March will be possibly as good as any months that we had last year. The "glass half-full" people will say how so many of these are short sales, but obviously someone wants it, regardless of who is selling it, and we should be very pleased with that. We still have some price pain ahead, and that is just the way it is. When inventory starts sliding, we can worry more about why prices aren't going up.
The closings being down from last week is normal-that week included end of the month sales, which are always higher, and this is the first week after a holiday, and a whole holiday season, so we don't expect gangbuster sales in the first full week of January.
Closings fall in normally light first week of the month
Pending Sales: 6,209 ( +515 from last week)
Pending Single Fam: 5,662 ( +495 from last week)
AWC: 995 ( + 87 from last week)
Single Fam. AWC: 910 ( + 74 from last week)
Closed 12/5-12/11/09 839 ( -528 from last week)
Closed Single Fam.: 750 ( -463 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,509 ( +483 from last week)
Single Fam Active: 43,099 ( +272 from last week)
Closed MTD: 1,045 same date 2008: 874
Single Family 942 same date 2008: 745
These stats are showing a growing amount of activity in early 2009-far better than 2008. At this same time last year, there were 3,656 pending sales, and only 560 AWC contracts. This includes a high number of short sales, as stats elsewhere have shown, but if they are pending on MLS, then they are being purchased by someone who wants the home. I think we can expect to see much stronger sales start to build even in January. It will not likely be 5600 as in December, but the numbers should be far better than 2008. I am going to guess 4500+. 4000 would be an okay month, not great, but okay.
The number of active listings also increased, but that is expected as January is a month many people put their homes on the market. It hasn't risen sharply, and there is going to come a time when the rising pendings and AWC contracts absorb the incoming new listings. That may not be this month, but we are creating a much stronger baseline than last year, and it would follow that March will be possibly as good as any months that we had last year. The "glass half-full" people will say how so many of these are short sales, but obviously someone wants it, regardless of who is selling it, and we should be very pleased with that. We still have some price pain ahead, and that is just the way it is. When inventory starts sliding, we can worry more about why prices aren't going up.
The closings being down from last week is normal-that week included end of the month sales, which are always higher, and this is the first week after a holiday, and a whole holiday season, so we don't expect gangbuster sales in the first full week of January.
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