MLS STATS 1/5/09-1/11/09

Pendings, AWC Up Sharply, Inventory Rises Slightly
Closings fall in normally light first week of the month

Pending Sales: 6,209 ( +515 from last week)

Pending Single Fam: 5,662 ( +495 from last week)

AWC: 995 ( + 87 from last week)
Single Fam. AWC: 910 ( + 74 from last week)

Closed 12/5-12/11/09 839 ( -528 from last week)
Closed Single Fam.: 750 ( -463 from last week)

Active Listings: 52,509 ( +483 from last week)
Single Fam Active: 43,099 ( +272 from last week)

Closed MTD: 1,045 same date 2008: 874
Single Family 942 same date 2008: 745

These stats are showing a growing amount of activity in early 2009-far better than 2008. At this same time last year, there were 3,656 pending sales, and only 560 AWC contracts. This includes a high number of short sales, as stats elsewhere have shown, but if they are pending on MLS, then they are being purchased by someone who wants the home. I think we can expect to see much stronger sales start to build even in January. It will not likely be 5600 as in December, but the numbers should be far better than 2008. I am going to guess 4500+. 4000 would be an okay month, not great, but okay.

The number of active listings also increased, but that is expected as January is a month many people put their homes on the market. It hasn't risen sharply, and there is going to come a time when the rising pendings and AWC contracts absorb the incoming new listings. That may not be this month, but we are creating a much stronger baseline than last year, and it would follow that March will be possibly as good as any months that we had last year. The "glass half-full" people will say how so many of these are short sales, but obviously someone wants it, regardless of who is selling it, and we should be very pleased with that. We still have some price pain ahead, and that is just the way it is. When inventory starts sliding, we can worry more about why prices aren't going up.

The closings being down from last week is normal-that week included end of the month sales, which are always higher, and this is the first week after a holiday, and a whole holiday season, so we don't expect gangbuster sales in the first full week of January.