APRIL 4/26-5/2-2010 ARMLS STATS

****April Sales Top 9200****

Inventory slides to 3.5 months current supply

Pendings still strong going into May

Pendings: 14,592 (+104 from 2 weeks ago)

Pendings SFam: 12,563 ( +104 from 2 weeks ago)

AWC: 8,075 ( +7 from 2 weeks ago)

AWC Sfam: 6,957 ( +4 from 2 weeks ago)

Closed 4/26-5/2 3,189 (+1229 from 2 weeks ago)

Closed SFam: 2,712 ( +1058 from 2 weeks ago)

Active Listings: 32,572 ( -1563 from two weeks ago)

Active Sfam: 25,510 ( -1061 from two weeks ago)

CLOSED: APRIL 2010: 9,284 (+803 from April'09)

(+352 from March'10)

Closed Sfam: 7,844

April sales finished very strong, and we surpassed 9000 sales. It was an improvement over both last April and March 2010. Pendings are still very high, even though we closed so many homes at the end of April. It is a very positive showing, and it means we are well set up for sales next month as well. There might be a leveling off in demand, as many of the first time homebuyers are already in contract, but there is also word that high end homes are selling quickly. "Paradise Valley Homes Selling like Hotcakes" (Biz Journal)

We are seeing signs of life throughout the industry now; homebuilders are buying land, building permits are higher in the most attractive markets, like Gilbert and Chandler, and we are seeing demand for properties for the purpose of flipping. Inventory numbers are very tame, and are falling, despite a heavy dose of listings coming on the market in April. 3.5 months supply of homes is not a lot; this will change somewhat over the summer, as I do expect more listings to enter the market, but for now, the inventory is quite acceptably low. Take at look compared to last year's inventory numbers in the figure above. Inventory is lower. I would still guess that many of the homes that are selling are at the lower end, but we are seeing gains at different price levels.

We look like we are solidly planted in a recovery in our real estate market, but much depends on jobs and how much optimism is generated by the recovery. So much of the value of real estate is tied to the psychology of our country's economic situation, and it has been very poor. The next quarter is going to tell us how far we have come, and whether there are any legs under this recovery. The early data for second quarter is showing stability in the market, but I will be much happier when I see the builders putting up houses in these vacant subdivisions.

Pendings Up Sharply in April
Inventory Falls Slightly
Short Sales continue to dominate listings and AWC.

Pending: 14,488 2 Weeks Ago: 13,590
Pending Sfam: 12,459 2 Weeks Ago: 11,783

AWC: 8,068 +347 from 4/6/2010
AWC Sfam: 6,953 +338 from 4/6/2010

Closed: 1,960
Closed Sfam: 1,654

Active: 34,135 -221 from 4/6/2010
Active: 26,751 -117 from 4/6/2010

Closed thru 4/18/2010: 4,200
Closed Sfam: 3,514

April is shaping up for a pretty good month. With 2 weeks left, we should cross over 8500 pretty easily, but will probably top 9000. I am not going to swear to it, as we have seen some volatile activity. It could also approach 9500- I am not entirely sure. Pendings have climbed sharply in the last few weeks- a lot of this is the result of pushing homes under the wire for the tax rebate, but we have general growth in demand as well. I won't address it today, but I am going to do an analysis on some submarkets, just to show how activity in neighborhoods has picked up substantially. The velocity of sales in places that are not first time homebuyer locations is a good gauge that its not only the tax rebate at work here.

Inventory is not falling at a rapid rate, as single family homes are still pushing onto the market at a high velocity. Short Sales now make up 13,847 of the 34,135 listings. Short sales simply spend too much time on the market, and the sooner lenders start allowing them to move, the quicker the housing market recovers. There are 8000+ homes that are short sales that are currently under some kind of contract that has not been accepted fully by the bank. They need to start expediting these sales.

Short Sales have accounted for only 806 of the 4200 sales so far in April. Lender owned properties have accounted for 1,619 of April sales. There are only 4869 lender listings. You do the math; they are willing to close out the properties they already own quickly, but are dragging their feet when it comes to helping their borrowers extricate themselves. If they have to take it back, they are simply going to get less for the house, with more costs. Its very short sighted on many banks part to not expedite this process.

ARMLS Stats- April 6, 2010

****March Sales: 9,005****
Pendings Fall Slightly, Short Sales continue to rise
Inventory: 3.8 month supply of homes on the market.
Median home price rises by $3,800 in March.

Pending Sales: 13,590 ( -328 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,783 ( -425 from last week)

AWC: 7,721 ( +69 from last week)
AWC SFam: 6,615 ( +54 from last week)

Closed 3/29-4/4 2,664 ( +840 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,235 ( +672 from last week)

Active Listings: 34,356 ( -443 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 26,868 ( -305 from last week)

March Closings: 9,005 (March 2009: 7562)
sMarch Sfam: 7,573

March sales finished very strong, just pushing us over the top of 9000. This exceeded March 2009 substantially, so we are still seeing good demand numbers. Some of this of course is the result of the tax rebate expiring in April, but demand strength is definitely widespread.

The Median price was up over February by $3800, and over March 2009 by $8K, so price gains are also substantial. Pending numbers are holding up very well, and we are likely to continue to post gains in pending sales. Short sales will hopefully start moving with the start of the short sale incentive to lenders and borrowers, as that statistic continues to climb. There are in excess of 6000 of these kind of contracts; they linger and clog inventory, and diminish what should be excellent demand. Instead of people buying a home right now, think of it as pushing that sale into next quarter, or maybe two quarters, as that is how long it takes to get through to a closed sale.

There is probably going to be a big build up in April and May due to the tax credit expiring, but there is usually a pretty strong build up in demand in these months anyway. I would expect to see some inventory come off the market, but really, at 3.8 months, inventory doesn't need to fall to see increases in prices.

I was just checking for fun due to a conversation I had with a client, and I noticed that 111 one million dollar+ homes sold in March. I don't follow that stat religiously, but I think the last time I checked it, it was in the high 60's, sometime in the last six months. That to me shows some strength in broader areas of the market than just first time buyers. We continue to get mixed messages from the media on where housing is going, but our local statistics are showing strong month to month gains in prices and volume from January and February. I think we are on a good path.

chris