***Listings Fall into 12,000's!***
Sales cross 8,400 in April
New listings fall again
Median Price up $28,000 from Last April
NEW HOME SALES INDEX: .84 ( -.03 from last week)
Pending Sales: 12, 183 ( -839 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 10,564 ( -689 from last week)
AWC: 7,730 ( -220 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,717 ( -199 from last week)
Active Listings: 12,911 ( -535 from last week)
Active Sfam: 10,069 ( -351 from last week)
Closed 4/23-4/29/2012: 2,054 ( +90 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,732 ( +106 from last week)
Number of New Listings in April: 9,182 ( -2004 from April'11, -597 from March'12)
Median Sale Price in April: $138,000 ( +$28,000 from April'11, +$8,100 from March'12)
Closings in April: 8,429 ( -1025 from April '11, (-466 from March'12)
Residential listings fell sharply this past week, falling below 13,000 for the first time that is probably documented. I didn't think we would see that happen, nor did I think we would see single family listings flirt with four figures, as I think I mentioned previously. Yet, here we are. May is typically a very decent sales month, so we will probably see some more dips in the inventory level as pendings recover from the end of month sales. At this point four years ago, there were 7,004 pending sales, compared to the 12,000+ today. We are trailing pendings at this time from where we were last year, but as we have discussed many times, there is simply not enough inventory to support larger numbers of sales. No matter how badly someone wants to buy a home, if they are outbid on one, they have to pursue another one, and it takes time. If there is a very limited amount of inventory in a particular neighborhood, it will take even more time. We are at about a 1.5 months worth of inventory, and that means there is very little to choose from. So little, in fact, that there are reports of investors now making offers sight unseen.
Even with slightly lower sales, the market is starting to look much stronger. More important than the sheer number of sales is the price level. What is that doing? Well, obviously it is up sharply- $28,000 year over year in April. Its also up $8000 from March of this year. March was up over $7000 from February, so we had a gain in excess of $15,000 in two months! That should tell you what direction we are going right now.
I also looked at some other interesting stats today- checking into the Maricopa area with a very well respected information service, I see there are a total of 2 spec homes available in the Maricopa area. Now, I take that with a grain of salt, as these things can be under-reported. Whether it is 2 or 20, that is not very much considering what is going on right now. We can read different things into that- for the last several years you could have said its because builders were not interested in putting up spec homes, but that is not what I hear any more. Another factor might be that Maricopa home prices are still less than what a builder can put out there, but it has to be quickly catching up. A smart builder would probably do well to get sticks in the ground, because by the time he's finished building it, prices will be catching right up to what he has to have for the property. Inventory has fallen precipitously, even in Maricopa. Its an area of opportunity for a builder. Not enough?
I also wanted to share another article regarding the homebuilders. They have been reporting stronger sales, and are feeling a bit more optimistic than in quite a while. Here is an article discussing some of their recent activity, and more importantly, how one builder feels going forward.
I am a little beat today, so I am going to limit my comments here. There is a lot to chew on in the stats, however, and if you are looking at these, and comparing them to previous years that you can find in my archives by year and month, you can get a great contrasting picture of the market recovery.
I am not going to weave my own narrative around these other stories today, but I think they are worth reading nonetheless.
Foreclosures Down, Prices Up in Phoenix (CBS News)
Bidding Wars catch buyers off-guard
Gilbert Tops Valley in New Home Sales
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