MLS STATS 5/30/2012

Median Price Still Rising

Pending sales overtake Active Listings
Sales in May will lag due to lack of inventory


Pending:                            12,651      ( -174 from last week)
Pending Sfam:                   11,021     (    -63 from last week)

AWC:                                 7,713      ( -50 from last week)
AWC Sfam:                        6,711       ( -22 from last week)

Active:                             12,648       ( -82 from last week)
Active Sfam:                      9,783       ( -110 from last week)

Closed 5/21-5/27:             1,805       ( -36 from last week)
Closed Sfam:                    1,535       ( -4 froml last week)

Median Price in May:         $146,900     (+8900 from April)


Prices continue to rise, but the lack of inventory is suppressing the overall number of sales.  Pending sales were higher than active again- its not so much that pending numbers are really high- they are not at their peak, but inventory has fallen substantially. 

May sales are going to finish around 8000 or so- quite a bit less than last year, but again, no inventory.  The key thing now is the price continues to rise.  It is hard to see inventory continuing to drop, however.  We are reaching a point of elasticity that I never thought we could get to in the first place, and it going substantially lower would be unlikely.  Builders will pick up production and prices would rise high enough where selleers would make their properties available.  I do think we will see good sales continue on during the summer.  I would be surprised if we see sales fall off this summer to far; there seems to be enough pent-up demand to keeep sales moving forward. 

End of the month stats are going to be far more interesting, so I am going to hang it up here.  Ill do a little more detailed info next week. 

MLS STATS 5.23.2012

Pendings Rise, Inventory Falls
Median Price rising again in May
Pending Sales surpass overall listings


Pendings:                        12,825   ( +166 from last week)
Pending Sfam:                11,165    ( +180 from last week)

AWC:                             7,763     ( -225 from last week)
AWC Sfam:                    6,733     ( -211 from last week)

Active:                           12,730    ( -148 from last week)
Active Sfam:                    9,893    ( -110 from last week)

Closed 5/14-5/20:           1,841    ( +438 from last week)
Closed Sfam:                  1,539     ( +361 from last week)

Median Price in May:  $145,000  ( up $7000 from April)

Ryness Index:  .87    ( a year ago this week: .5)

Stats are continuing to go in the right direction, with pendings rising and inventory falling, driving up the price.  New home sales also continue to be stronger, and more than likely they are stronger than this showing.  Still, it close to being double the previous year, so that means there is some excellent new home activity going on out there, and it is likely to get better as inventory continues to shrink and prices for resales continue to rise.

I am not going to list it here, but we did hear some good news anecdotally this week as well; there is some optimism in the market that we have turned a corner nationally as well, although Diana Glick from CNBC seems intent on tamping down any optimism, telling us that the home price gains aren't real.  Its not really that newsworthy for Arizona, but she does mention us.  There isn't much bad that can be said.

The actual sales numbers are going to be down from last year; we simply don't have the listings to support higher sales.  You might have also noticed that there are more pending sales than inventory; it is not the first time it has happened, but the last time it was a end of the month thing where they briefly passed before bouncing into normal position at the end of the month.  This is the first time it was recorded on a weekly post, so it is significant.  Even more significant:  single family inventory has fallen far below active inventory.  This is a very healthy demand market, with a strong indicator of price gains.

I will wait until the end of the month to do any additional commentary, but the numbers we might have thought shocking a few years ago are definitely here.

Pendings Flat
Actives Flat
Median price almost $145,000


Pending:                       12,659                ( -12 from last week)
Pending Sfam:              10,985                ( -10 from last week)

AWC:                           7,988                ( +98 from last week)
AWC Sfam:                  6,944                ( +86 from last week)

Active:                       12,878                 ( -6 from last week)
Active Sfam:              10,003                 ( +17 from last week)

Closed 5/7-5/13:         1,403                 ( -875 from last week)
closed single family:     1,178                 ( -739 from last week)

Median Price May:      $144,900           ( +$6900 from April)

Ryness Report Index:        .87               (Last week:  .82)

*SINGLE FAMILY LISTINGS FALL  BENEATH 10,000*

Pendings rise sharply

Median Price still rising

New home sales also continuing stronger trend

Pending:                   12,671                ( +494 from last week)

Pending Sfam:          10,995                ( +431 from last week)

AWC:                       7,890                ( +160 from last week)

AWC Sfam:              6,858                 ( +141 from last week)

Active:                     12,884                ( -27 from last week)

Active Sfam:              9,986                ( -83 from last week)

Closed 4/30-5/6:       2,278                ( +224 from last week)

Closed Sfam:            1,917                 ( +185 from last week)

Median Price:          $145,000            ( +$7000 from April)

Ryness Report New Home Index:   .82   (last year this week: .38)

I don't have much time to write today, but here are the stats.  The most notable, but perhaps not significant in its change from last week's numbers, is obviously the number of single family listings falling below 10,000.  That is amazing when you go back and look at how many listings, and how many decade overhang the naysayers were saying the inventory was.

There was also a mention as Phoenix shooting up the charts to be the second best housing recovery market in the country.  It has also jumped to number 5 in commercial construction spending, so there  really is some substance to this recovery, across a broad palette.  It is getting to be such that there are not particularly any good deals in residential real estate; the only market that hasn't had substantial price jumps yet is land; that too will come shortly, as is becomes more apparent the recovery is for real.  Land asset prices are still fractions of what they were, and more importantly, fractions of what they actually should be.  Prices are not going to return quickly to the 2005 level, obviously.  But with land in many cases being 10%-20% of those prices, there certainly is room for improvement- and profit.  Land only has to go back to 50% of 2005 values for someone to make 200%-300% return.  Take for example, land that in 2005 was $100K an acre.  That implies a home of $400K-$500K; obviously those areas are not going to see the price return to that number.  However, I have a specific example of homes in that area already being $200K-$250K right now.  That implies the value should be close to half of the 2005 price, right?  Well, yes it does, as the land component cost could be as high as $50,000, and the number would still work.  

What if I told you that kind of land was still available in places for $10,000-$15,000 per acre?  It is. For builders, they should be acquiring while its cheapest, as they would probably double the amount of money they make on the construction of the house with also receiving a profit on the land.   When builders become active again, you will see the prices pushed higher, as they make their money on the construction, not on the dirt.  If they make it on both, its a nice bonus.  

New home construction at the custom home level is only beginning to ramp up; we have not felt the effects of the small builders putting up spec homes yet, or even buying dirt to put up spec homes.  Just like in the home market, when investors realize the the inherent imbalance of prices with potential, prices will change. 

That's all I have time for today, but we have a lot of reason for optimism here locally.  Prices are being pushed sharply northward, and it doesn't look like a false start.    

ARMLS STATS 5/2/2012

***Listings Fall into 12,000's!***

Sales cross 8,400 in April
New listings fall again
Median Price up $28,000 from Last April

NEW HOME SALES INDEX:            .84  ( -.03 from last week)

Pending Sales:                           12, 183                    ( -839 from last week)
Pending Sfam:                           10,564                     ( -689 from last week)

AWC:                                        7,730                      ( -220 from last week)
AWC Sfam:                               6,717                      ( -199 from last week)

Active Listings:                        12,911                       ( -535 from last week)
Active Sfam:                            10,069                       ( -351 from last week)

Closed 4/23-4/29/2012:            2,054                       ( +90 from last week)
Closed Sfam:                             1,732                       ( +106 from last week)

Number of New Listings in April:       9,182              ( -2004 from April'11, -597 from March'12)

Median Sale Price in April:        $138,000                ( +$28,000 from April'11, +$8,100 from March'12)


Closings in April:                        8,429                     ( -1025 from April '11, (-466 from March'12)


 
Residential listings fell sharply this past week, falling below 13,000 for the first time that is probably documented.  I didn't think we would see that happen, nor did I think we would see single family listings flirt with four figures, as I think I mentioned previously.  Yet, here we are.  May is typically a very decent sales month, so we will probably see some more dips in the inventory level as pendings recover from the end of month sales.  At this point four years ago, there were 7,004 pending sales, compared to the 12,000+ today.  We are trailing pendings at this time from where we were last year, but as we have discussed many times, there is simply not enough inventory to support larger numbers of sales.  No matter how badly someone wants to buy a home, if they are outbid on one, they have to pursue another one, and it takes time.  If there is a very limited amount of inventory in a particular neighborhood, it will take even more time.  We are at about a 1.5 months worth of inventory, and that means there is very little to choose from.  So little, in fact, that there are reports of investors now making offers sight unseen.

Even with slightly lower sales, the market is starting to look much stronger.  More important than the sheer number of sales is the price level.  What is that doing?  Well, obviously it is up sharply- $28,000 year over year in April.  Its also up $8000 from March of this year.  March was up over $7000 from February, so we had a gain in excess of $15,000 in two months!  That should tell you what direction we are going right now.

I also looked at some other interesting stats today- checking into the Maricopa area with a very well respected information service, I see there are a total of 2 spec homes available in the Maricopa area.  Now, I take that with a grain of salt, as these things can be under-reported.  Whether it is 2 or 20, that is not very much considering what is going on right now.  We can read different things into that- for the last several years you could have said its because builders were not interested in putting up spec homes, but that is not what I hear any more.  Another factor might be that Maricopa home prices are still less than what a builder can put out there, but it has to be quickly catching up.  A smart builder would probably do well to get sticks in the ground, because by the time he's finished building it, prices will be catching right up to what he has to have for the property.  Inventory has fallen precipitously, even in Maricopa.  Its an area of opportunity for a builder.  Not enough?

I also wanted to share another article regarding the homebuilders.  They have been reporting stronger sales, and are feeling a bit more optimistic than in quite a while.  Here is an article discussing some of their recent activity, and more importantly, how one builder feels going forward.

I am a little beat today, so I am going to limit my comments here.  There is a lot to chew on in the stats, however, and if you are looking at these, and comparing them to previous years that you can find in my archives by year and month, you can get a great contrasting picture of the market recovery.

I am not going to weave my own narrative around these other stories today, but I think they are worth reading nonetheless.

Foreclosures Down, Prices Up in Phoenix  (CBS News)

Bidding Wars catch buyers off-guard

Gilbert Tops Valley in New Home Sales