Inventory slightly off, but flat.
Median listing price making big moves?
Pending: 11,070 (+234 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 9,629 (+231 from last week)
AWC: 7,698 ( +100 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,654 ( + 78 from last week)
Active: 19,630 ( -24 from last week)
Active Sfam: 15,392 ( -48 from last week)
Closed 10/7-10/13 1,367
Closed Sfam: 1,177
Median Listing price November 2010: 114,900 November 2011: 144,900
Pending sales are continuing to rise in November, but sales are rather slow. November is traditionally a slow month, and I don't think this will be an exception. The good news is that pendings are higher, and inventory is thin, as new listing inventory continues to slide compared to last year. There is also an article in housingwire.com that foreclosures are the lowest percentage of sales since 2009.
We have low interest rates, we are starting to see a dearth of low priced condos in the middle part of the city where my investors would like to buy them, and the economy is showing real signs of recovery. If we can continue with this pace, our spring buying season ought to be a strong one. Demand is likely to be there, and with the relatively few available homes for sale, we should see a good uptick in prices and optimism.
One stat I would like to focus on this week that is interesting but one we don't take note of is the the median listing price. It is not the most telling of stats, but it is an indicator of market optimism or supply. If it goes up, it means people are asking for more money for their homes, people with higher priced homes think they may be able to sell, or simply that the available supply of low priced homes is vanishing. The number stays relatively stable most of the time, so its not particularly noteworthy to spend time hashing it out, but I want to point out something today that I find very interesting. Lets' look at the median listing price for the last year or so.
October 2010: 119,900
November 2010 114,900
December 2010: 109,900
January 2011: 119,000
February 2011: 119,000
March 2011: 117,900
April 2011: 119,000
May 2011: 119,000
June 2011: 119,000
July 2011: 121,900
August 2011: 120,000
September 2011: 129,900
October 2011: 136,900
November 2011: 144,900 (mid month)
As you can see, that number was very stable over the long run, and had been so through much of the last year while inventory was high. Once inventory was depleted, we are now seeing a definite higher trend in what the asking prices of properties out there are. Its a combination of many things, including fewer listings, which tends garner more impact from the higher dollar properties that get listed. That's not telling, but less listings is in of itself a good sign- less inventory will create price bumps. That is not the only reason though. There are a lot less low priced condos, and prices at the low end appear to be rising as a result. We have been chasing those as investments, but they are more difficult to come by. There are less foreclosures, so more of the inventory that is out there is likely to be higher in price as it is not a distress sale. As a broad indicator of a healthy market, the substantial rise of the median listing price in the second half of this year forecasts optimism, either forced or deliberate, by people who are pricing the homes going on the market. Its a strong sign of faith in market price increases. We have seen much smaller gains in the median price increases so far, but they are off their lows, and the trend seems to be higher.
Okay, that's about all I have to say about that today, but there are some reasons for optimism going forward.
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