***Single Family listings fall into 15K's***
July sales surprisingly strong, finishes at 8,521
Number of new listings dives: 26.4% less than July '10
Listing activity falling further behind 2010, now running 15.4% deficit
*First time this year less than 10,000 new listings for a month*
Pending: 11,571 ( -733 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 10,122 ( -643 from last week)
AWC: 7,623 ( -126 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 6,592 ( -108 from last week)
Active: 20,031 ( -564 from last week)
Active Sfam: 15,917 ( -454 from last week)
CLOSED 7.25-7/31: 2,847 ( +968 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 2,457 ( +831 from last week)
Closed July: 8,521 (+ 23.4% from July '2010)
New listings in July: 9,231 ( -3,308 from last year, -1409 from June)
Despite everything we hear everywhere, it seems our July figures are reinforcing the idea we are on the right track in Arizona. 8500 sales in July is more than acceptable; it turned out to be a really good month. Throw in that there was another fall off in listing activity, and you encounter again some serious inventory burn. Prices are still flat, but for the first time in July, listing prices are higher than the previous year; it shows something about either seller optimism, or the fact that the low priced stuff is being diminished, and future activity will live in a higher price range.
I don't want to gloss over the fact that there are now only 15K listing left in the Single Family inventory in the MLS; there were actually 7,349 closings of Single Family homes, so we are talking about a bit more than a two month supply, and falling. July is traditionally an off month in Arizona, due to vacations and general miserableness of the weather causing people to seek refuge elsewhere. But strong sales, especially given the limited and falling trend of inventory, and one could say we are in a much better inventory position than we could hope for. Obviously, people are buying homes, and for this, I am grateful.
It is also worth noting that we are reaching a milestone on overall listings as well, even though as of press time, it didn't happen. We will be under 20,000 listings this week in the MLS, and I don't know how anyone can continue to ignore the fact that we have reached acceptable levels of inventory. We are at just about two months, and I think most sellers will tell you that if they only need to wait two months to sell their homes, they would be pleased. That is what this inventory number tells us. We sometime can expect August to be similar but maybe even slightly better than July, but if we are in similar ballparks, we will be doing very well. We have cut another 1000 off the inventory in July, a month I expected it to build, and while it may start building for the rest of this year, the fact that the inventory build won't even start until the end of august means that there will be less inventory to start the 2012 sales season with. If we have a decent August, we may not see any inventory build.
To expand on the inventory trend, as I mentioned it is running at a 15% deficit from last year. And the recent months have even been a bigger fall. It could be that inventory is really receding here finally, because it is on a 7 month trend, and even some pretty sharp rises will not change the overall picture. July's number being 26% less is astounding. That is 3300 fewer homes came on the market, and there were 1600+ more sales. For a typically poor month that usually sees inventory build, you can see why its still falling. Economic uncertainty continues in the US, however, and there is no way to say that the trend will continue.
I would like to get some stats from builders to see how they are doing, but given that resale purchasing is strong even with the tight lending standards now faced by buyers, I would think they are at least doing better. The last figures I saw showed some definite upward trends in traffic and actual sales compared to what inventory is available. Builders are still being very cautious, but I am seeing some signs of life, so I do think they are probably seeing enough activity to give them a little hope. Their as-built inventory is very low right now, and they will need some strong buying activity to get them started on high volume spec construction. I did see this morning a DR Horton subdivision with a number of homes under construction up on Dynamite in the 50's streets. I don't see this subdivision listed on their website yet, so it must be fairly new. They had multiple homes under construction, and this is not a low end area. I am always happy to see new subdivision.
If we can continue on the path that we are on, we are going to find ourselves in excellent condition by next February when the buying season is upon us- it might even be sooner given the trend lines, but it doesn't pay to be too optimistic right now, people are still so negative on housing that they just skewer you for disputing the gloom.
Pricing continues to be troublesome, as there was a price drop in July; it is likely an aberration, however, as the laws of economics will not let that continue for long. It just can't work that way. On the positive aspect of price, The overall dollar figures sold in July was nearly $100,000,000 higher than last year; we have only been higher in that category four months this year, and that was by far the best performance.
Another positive month, and a very good week that continues the trend of a market returning to health.
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