News media finally seeing the light?
Pendings Fall; but Sales top 2K for the week.
Listings and AWC flat as summer takes hold.
PENDING SALES: 12,939 ( -306 from last week)
Pending Sin. Fam. 11,512 ( -261 from last week)
AWC: 5,595 ( +14 from last week)
AWC Single Fam: 4,986 ( +22 from last week)
CLOSED 7/13-7/19: 2,018 ( +494 from last week)
Closed Single Fam: 1,773 ( +441 from last week)
Active Listings: 31,792 ( -16 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 24,459 ( - 1 from last week)
CLOSED MTD (7/19): 4,474
Closed Single Fam: 3,924
Pendings fell sharply, but this is probably due to the increased number of sales that closed this week. 2,000 sales is very good for a middle week. It seems we have reached our natural inventory levels, as listings declines have now flattened out. We are likely to see some weeks where listings increase again. From what I heard from some local realtors, they had some slow weeks from buyers when rates climbed back up for a while; rates have fallen again, however, and applications have risen solidly.
Sales remain good; not as good as June, which is typical, but pretty good nonetheless. We will expect that July will finish in the 8000's in overall sales, which of course is down from July, but it is still a very strong number. I expect the number of listings to climb a bit as well, before being pushed down in September. We are likely to have a small W-Shaped recovery, as many people are dealing with job losses and there is likely to be a high inventory level for a while. It may not be overwhelming, but it might be steady for a while.
I think the most interesting development this week is how the national news media seems to be turning the corner from the gloom and doom it has been spouting. All of a sudden, Oil is up on better housing news, and rates are low, and signs of stability as we have reached 12 months of falling supply.
This is the very best thing for our industry, as it is the consumer psyche that drives the idea of whether a major investment such as a home is a good idea or not. Put all the stimulus you want out there, but if someone thinks the value of their home is going down over the near term, they aren't buying it. We seem to have some changes in how people are perceiving the economy; all of the positive earnings reports coming out are doing a lot of the heavy lifting right now. The news on the street is good, so the commentators sound more pleased, and this gives people more hope that stability is here. Many pundits are saying the see the recession coming to an end very shortly. With that kind of talk dominating the airwaves in the last few weeks, it is no wonder that we are starting to see a shift out of depression mentality, and one that is more hopeful for recovery. Housing news is getting better, and while what we see right now may be as good as it gets for a while in terms of demand, we could live with that. We don't need to see 2005 again to have a healthy industry.
I do think we are going to see a bit of a lull here in July and parts of August, but we should have an excellent September. October is too hard to predict, as we have that expiring tax credit, and there may be a lot of people who want to get in under the wire of November 30th. There could be an artificial boomlet in those two traditionally weaker months.
We are still going in the right direction, with good sales numbers, high buying activity, and relatively low inventory. We are also seeing prices climb, and for the first time, there seems to be optimism in the news media that housing is turning around. That is really the first time I can say that has been the case for several years, and it is one of the crucial steps in regaining consumer confidence in investing in a home.
No comments:
Post a Comment