ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL INTO 32,000's
Sales Fall Slightly behind May's Pace
Pendings and AWC restart climb
Pending Sales: 13,559 ( +257 from last week)
Pending Single Fam: 12,042 ( +117 from last week)
AWC: 5,402 ( +142 from last week)
AWC Single Fam: 4,865 ( +112 from last week)
Closed 6/15-6/21 2,094 ( +371 from last week)
Closed Single Fam: 1,879 ( +350 from last week)
Active Listings: 32,826 ( -449 from last week)
Active Single Fam: 25,198 ( -338 from last week)
Closed MTD thru 6/21/09: 5,557 Closed 5/21/09: 5,656
Closed Single Fam: 4,956 Closed 5/21/09: 5038
So far the thousands of foreclosed homes that were predicted to hit the market in June has failed to materialize in the inventory report. I had been told by many agents and several banks that June, like April, was a month that we would be swamped by new listings of homes. It hasn't happened; in fact, our inventory of homes has dropped steadily in June. It is not dropping a 1000 a week any more, but as we fall there are elasticity issues that would mean a 1000 a week drop would equate to a weekly drop of 3%-that would be a massive number, and is not realistic. We dropped a healthy 449, which roughly speaking is 1.5%. Inventory levels are bound to fluctuate a little going into the fall, but for reasons I have elaborated on before, the number of listings going on the market are not as steep as predicted, and not as high as last year. There is no doubt foreclosure inventory out there, as noted in this article, but these homes rarely come on the market all at once, and so far, our market is absorbing inventory the banks do put on the market, and inventory is still shrinking. May had 2000+ less listings than May of '08; June is looking like it will have a similar fate. We still have three excellent months of sales after June, as last year September surprised by posting the best sales month of the year locally.
The statistics are a bit mixed this week however, as our sales pace fell a little behind May's. That doesn't mean we will finish less than May, but it would have been nice to be blowing the doors off May. The numbers have been predicting it however, as there were more Pending Sales during May then there are now. These are still very healthy numbers, but we might finish behind May's total.
Interestingly, Pending and AWC contracts are higher, however, which denotes continuing strength. AWC contracts are at their high, so we are seeing more new activity going into the summer. We may have peaked, but it may also be a plateau; a healthy level of sales and activity that can be maintained for a while. Nothing wrong with this level of activity. We are beginning to see that inventory is insufficient, and that builders are starting to stir, as they begin to see opportunities to sell homes again, foreclosures properties or not.
We have also seen some stability in the New Home market, as builders have reduce spec inventory substantially, and buyers start looking around for other choices as inventory of resales has fallen. These are not boom numbers for builders, but they are stabilizing at levels we haven't seen for a few years. A major new housing index, which apparently I can't mention here, has risen and stayed above a level not seen since 2006. There are reasons for optimism, but the prices of new homes is going to be much lower, with much more basic living than we had a few years ago.
A very good week nonetheless, and breaching 2000 sales for the week is a strong indicator that we will finish June in excellent position. As I have said, it will be difficult to not acknowledge that we are in a housing recovery by the end of July.
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