PENDING SALES TOP 10,000!

Just a bit of brightness locally amid all of the national gloom...our pending sales for all listings has topped 10,000! That means that there is a 20%+ ratio of pending sales to listings. At this time in 2008 the ratio was only 9.5% of pending sales to active listings. The picture becomes clearer that the market is performing at a much higher level than last year-and yes, it has a lot to do with pricing, but as I like to point out to people, when doesn't it have to do with pricing? Even in 2005, much of the buying frenzy was caused by expectation of rising prices, so either get in now, or miss the boat. We are going to see pretty soon a similar wave of people saying that prices have bottomed, and its time to get in the boat. I think there will be a secondary wave of buying sometime this summer. I expect a very good summer of home sales, not just here, but in other recovering markets. I wish I could say the same thing about the land market, but I think that will trail by a year. There are some good bargains to be had, if you will let your agent look for some.

By the way, single family pendings are over 9100 as well, making the ratio of pendings to listings a healthy 23%. I wish there were historical numbers of 2002-2006 that I could compare the pendings to active, but I know of no one that keeps historical data of pendings-other than me now. 23% is a healthy ratio, I think, given the still relatively high amount of inventory. It seems to me that in 2005 the ratio was more like 50%, which led to overheating of the market. The 23% is likely to go higher, as inventory comes down.

I think the national news lags the real time by several months, and judging by what we are seeing right now, it is hard to say that the market has not already hit bottom several months ago and we are heading towards an upswing. The overall price level might go down with so many fixups and repos being sold, but the supply demand aspect is in full correction; the pricing will follow soon enough. I would venture a guess that quality resale homes' prices are already tightening, as the share of them on the market is much thinner.

There is a host of bad news out there, but there seems to be a lot of people interested in buying a home here in Arizona, anyway. Let's hope that continues.

chris