PENDINGS RISING SHARPLY, TOP 7300!
PENDINGS SALES: 7303 ( +670 from last week)
PENDING Single FAM: 6622 ( +594 from last week)
AWC: 1161 ( +87 from last week)
AWC SINGLE FAM: 1052 ( +79 from last week)
CLOSED (1/25/09) 907 ( -152 from last week)
CLOSED SINGLE FAM: 823 ( -150 from last week)
CLOSED THROUGH 1/25 3,112
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSED: 2,829
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 52,408 ( -89 from last week)
ACTIVE SINGLE FAM: 42,880 ( -100 from last week)
I will comment on these statistics at a later time....
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
ARMLS STATS 1/12/18/09
PENDINGS UP SHARPLY AGAIN, INVENTORY FALLS SLIGHTLY
NEW CONTRACTS RISE OVER 8%*
PENDING SALES: 6633 ( +424 from last week)
PENDING SALES (Single Fam.) 6028 ( +366 from last week)
AWC: 1,074 ( +79 from last week)
(AWC Single Family) 982 ( +72 from last week)
ClOSED (thru 1/18/09) 1059 ( +220 from last week)
Closed Single Fam. 973 ( + 223 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,497 ( -12 from last week)
Single Family 42, 980 ( -119 from last week)
CLOSED MTD 1/18/09: 2,133 ( Closed thru 1/20/08: 1,503)
Single Family 1,914
This past week showed another spectacular improvement in demand factors for single family homes. Pending sales showed another sharp rise, and AWC contracts are showing a renewing supply of fresh contracts. This uptick is happening sooner in the year than it did in the past, which gives me a lot of hope that when we reach the seasonally better second quarter, real inventory reduction will manifest itself. We are likely to see something approaching 5000 sales this January, given our progess so far-a pace that would put us far past last January's total of 3,029.
More importantly than the January closing numbers is the forecasting numbers-pendings and AWC contracts. At this same point last January- or close to it on January 22nd-we had only 3,836 pending home sales, and 620 pending sales. When you look at the difference in these figures, you can see the definite improvement in the "demand" aspect. We still have far too much in the "supply" side, but I was encouraged that it fell a bit-I expected that we would continue to increase supply, but maybe enough demand is surfacing to keep up with the amount of listings that traditionally occur at this time. We are several thousand listings short of last year at this time-still insignificant statistically, but given the huge trove of foreclosures we have had to deal with, I again am encouraged that we are keeping pace, and yes, maybe even making some headway. If we can hold ground during January and February, we really have a chance to make some real dents in inventory starting in March.
I am also encouraged that I have started to receive sign calls on properties again-it has been a while, but people are maybe searching out places to put money they are shielding from the stock market.
If you are an investor-even a small investor- there are opportunities to buy land at some bargain prices now. You still have to hunt a little bit, but excellent bargains can be had.
This week is a key week setting up the end of the month sales-if we can have a very solid week, we can possibly foresee surpassing 5000 sales this month. I am again, cautiously optimistic that we are seeing demand recovery in the real estate market occurring. A key point of this is that January 0f 2004 (the first year of the boom) only showed 5,103 closings. Imagine that we might reach that this month? Even the crazy year of 2005, in the midst of the boom, there were only 6590 home sales in January. We still have tremendous inventory challenges, but if we have strong demand, we will make progress on that. I am optimistic that we are entering a period of market correction.
NEW CONTRACTS RISE OVER 8%*
PENDING SALES: 6633 ( +424 from last week)
PENDING SALES (Single Fam.) 6028 ( +366 from last week)
AWC: 1,074 ( +79 from last week)
(AWC Single Family) 982 ( +72 from last week)
ClOSED (thru 1/18/09) 1059 ( +220 from last week)
Closed Single Fam. 973 ( + 223 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,497 ( -12 from last week)
Single Family 42, 980 ( -119 from last week)
CLOSED MTD 1/18/09: 2,133 ( Closed thru 1/20/08: 1,503)
Single Family 1,914
This past week showed another spectacular improvement in demand factors for single family homes. Pending sales showed another sharp rise, and AWC contracts are showing a renewing supply of fresh contracts. This uptick is happening sooner in the year than it did in the past, which gives me a lot of hope that when we reach the seasonally better second quarter, real inventory reduction will manifest itself. We are likely to see something approaching 5000 sales this January, given our progess so far-a pace that would put us far past last January's total of 3,029.
More importantly than the January closing numbers is the forecasting numbers-pendings and AWC contracts. At this same point last January- or close to it on January 22nd-we had only 3,836 pending home sales, and 620 pending sales. When you look at the difference in these figures, you can see the definite improvement in the "demand" aspect. We still have far too much in the "supply" side, but I was encouraged that it fell a bit-I expected that we would continue to increase supply, but maybe enough demand is surfacing to keep up with the amount of listings that traditionally occur at this time. We are several thousand listings short of last year at this time-still insignificant statistically, but given the huge trove of foreclosures we have had to deal with, I again am encouraged that we are keeping pace, and yes, maybe even making some headway. If we can hold ground during January and February, we really have a chance to make some real dents in inventory starting in March.
I am also encouraged that I have started to receive sign calls on properties again-it has been a while, but people are maybe searching out places to put money they are shielding from the stock market.
If you are an investor-even a small investor- there are opportunities to buy land at some bargain prices now. You still have to hunt a little bit, but excellent bargains can be had.
This week is a key week setting up the end of the month sales-if we can have a very solid week, we can possibly foresee surpassing 5000 sales this month. I am again, cautiously optimistic that we are seeing demand recovery in the real estate market occurring. A key point of this is that January 0f 2004 (the first year of the boom) only showed 5,103 closings. Imagine that we might reach that this month? Even the crazy year of 2005, in the midst of the boom, there were only 6590 home sales in January. We still have tremendous inventory challenges, but if we have strong demand, we will make progress on that. I am optimistic that we are entering a period of market correction.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
MLS STATS 1/5/09-1/11/09
Pendings, AWC Up Sharply, Inventory Rises Slightly
Closings fall in normally light first week of the month
Pending Sales: 6,209 ( +515 from last week)
Pending Single Fam: 5,662 ( +495 from last week)
AWC: 995 ( + 87 from last week)
Single Fam. AWC: 910 ( + 74 from last week)
Closed 12/5-12/11/09 839 ( -528 from last week)
Closed Single Fam.: 750 ( -463 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,509 ( +483 from last week)
Single Fam Active: 43,099 ( +272 from last week)
Closed MTD: 1,045 same date 2008: 874
Single Family 942 same date 2008: 745
These stats are showing a growing amount of activity in early 2009-far better than 2008. At this same time last year, there were 3,656 pending sales, and only 560 AWC contracts. This includes a high number of short sales, as stats elsewhere have shown, but if they are pending on MLS, then they are being purchased by someone who wants the home. I think we can expect to see much stronger sales start to build even in January. It will not likely be 5600 as in December, but the numbers should be far better than 2008. I am going to guess 4500+. 4000 would be an okay month, not great, but okay.
The number of active listings also increased, but that is expected as January is a month many people put their homes on the market. It hasn't risen sharply, and there is going to come a time when the rising pendings and AWC contracts absorb the incoming new listings. That may not be this month, but we are creating a much stronger baseline than last year, and it would follow that March will be possibly as good as any months that we had last year. The "glass half-full" people will say how so many of these are short sales, but obviously someone wants it, regardless of who is selling it, and we should be very pleased with that. We still have some price pain ahead, and that is just the way it is. When inventory starts sliding, we can worry more about why prices aren't going up.
The closings being down from last week is normal-that week included end of the month sales, which are always higher, and this is the first week after a holiday, and a whole holiday season, so we don't expect gangbuster sales in the first full week of January.
Closings fall in normally light first week of the month
Pending Sales: 6,209 ( +515 from last week)
Pending Single Fam: 5,662 ( +495 from last week)
AWC: 995 ( + 87 from last week)
Single Fam. AWC: 910 ( + 74 from last week)
Closed 12/5-12/11/09 839 ( -528 from last week)
Closed Single Fam.: 750 ( -463 from last week)
Active Listings: 52,509 ( +483 from last week)
Single Fam Active: 43,099 ( +272 from last week)
Closed MTD: 1,045 same date 2008: 874
Single Family 942 same date 2008: 745
These stats are showing a growing amount of activity in early 2009-far better than 2008. At this same time last year, there were 3,656 pending sales, and only 560 AWC contracts. This includes a high number of short sales, as stats elsewhere have shown, but if they are pending on MLS, then they are being purchased by someone who wants the home. I think we can expect to see much stronger sales start to build even in January. It will not likely be 5600 as in December, but the numbers should be far better than 2008. I am going to guess 4500+. 4000 would be an okay month, not great, but okay.
The number of active listings also increased, but that is expected as January is a month many people put their homes on the market. It hasn't risen sharply, and there is going to come a time when the rising pendings and AWC contracts absorb the incoming new listings. That may not be this month, but we are creating a much stronger baseline than last year, and it would follow that March will be possibly as good as any months that we had last year. The "glass half-full" people will say how so many of these are short sales, but obviously someone wants it, regardless of who is selling it, and we should be very pleased with that. We still have some price pain ahead, and that is just the way it is. When inventory starts sliding, we can worry more about why prices aren't going up.
The closings being down from last week is normal-that week included end of the month sales, which are always higher, and this is the first week after a holiday, and a whole holiday season, so we don't expect gangbuster sales in the first full week of January.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
ARMLS STATS 12/29/08 to 1/14/09
December finishes up strong, Annual Sales best 2007 handily.
Sales figures for December top 5600!
Sorry I forgot to tell you that I would not be posting last week either; I was unavailable and therefore missed the huge jump in sales that occurred at the end of December. There was apparently quite a finish, as the final weeks pushed us in to some welcome territory for sales. Here are the stats for the end of the year:
December 08: 5,628 Resales, 5,047 of these were single family homes.
For comparison, December 07 finished with only 3,340 sales total, single family homes were 2765! Even November of this year only showed 4449 closings. That shows we are moving ahead, even if prices have fallen.
Resales for the year on MLS totaled 59,772 total and 52,555 single family residences. Not great, but a 10.2% and 19.6% improvement respectively, over 2007's total of 54,238 and 43,921. Note the relatively higher improvement of single family sales- a very good sign, to say the least. If that is the trend, we may be out of this mess sooner than we realize.
A sale through MLS, as I have often said, is usually one in which someone wants the house. This would be a very encouraging sign, but let's look at current stats. On to new business!
PENDING SALES: 5,694 (-725 from 12/16, but up 2350 from Jan 6, 08!)
Pend. SF SALES: 5,167 ( -629 from 12/16, No Jan. 08 Single Fam. Stats Avail.)
AWC Total: 908 ( -88 from Dec 16, 2008 +392 from January '08)
AWC Single Fam. 836 ( -75 from Dec 16, 2008)
Closed 12/29-Jan 4 1,367 ( + 424 from 12/16/08)
Closed Sing. Fam " " 1,213 ( + 353 from 12/16/08)
Active Listings: 52,026 (-2,461 from 12/16/08) 1st Week 2008 was 53,266
Active Single Fam. 42,827 (-2,117 from 12/16/08)
(Note the new format, it just saves me time jumping back and forth when pulling statistics from MLS. We will try it this way for a while.)
These numbers show a mixed picture. Certainly, January sales are not likely to be as good as December's given the fall in pending sales. However, they are way up from last January, (check the archive of my blog for historical stats) so expect the sales to be better than last January. There was a steep drop in listings, as usually expected, in December, which actually brought us below the inventory level at the same time frame last year. It is a shallow improvement, but a helpful improvement nonetheless given that we can probably expect a far more dynamic demand for homes coming by the end of first quarter, and have a chance to chew up some inventory. I do expect the inventory to rise a bit over the next six weeks, but, I also expect pendings and AWC contracts to start growing rapidly as well. Eventually, we are going to reach the tipping point where the number of listings entering the market slows down, and the increased buying activity starts eating up inventory. It could happen as early as March, but I am not ready to call that yet. We did see AWC contracts start to spike up as early as middle January last year, so we can watch carefully for that the next few weeks. Its interesting to go back and visit the archive and see what was happening at the same time a year ago. I remember being excited about the headlines saying AWC had reached 600 in one week, then 700 the next, as it looked like a rally-which it was. March and April were good months, and I would expect that they will be better this year.
If January and February sales can stay above 4,000, which I have every reason to believe they will, I think we can see March hitting 6000, and April maybe hitting 7000, depending on the national economy by that point. I am going to make an early prediction that we will hit 70,000 resales easily in 2009.
Mortgage rates have fallen to ridiculously low levels, as have home prices, and gas prices. Despite the economy, I expect there to be a housing rally as Americans get comfortable with the new realities. Mortgage applications have been climbing at a steady clip with the rates under 5%, and that will start hitting the sales charts eventually. I expect a good second quarter rally. First quarter will be better than last year as well, but I think a breakout may come in April.
Sales figures for December top 5600!
Sorry I forgot to tell you that I would not be posting last week either; I was unavailable and therefore missed the huge jump in sales that occurred at the end of December. There was apparently quite a finish, as the final weeks pushed us in to some welcome territory for sales. Here are the stats for the end of the year:
December 08: 5,628 Resales, 5,047 of these were single family homes.
For comparison, December 07 finished with only 3,340 sales total, single family homes were 2765! Even November of this year only showed 4449 closings. That shows we are moving ahead, even if prices have fallen.
Resales for the year on MLS totaled 59,772 total and 52,555 single family residences. Not great, but a 10.2% and 19.6% improvement respectively, over 2007's total of 54,238 and 43,921. Note the relatively higher improvement of single family sales- a very good sign, to say the least. If that is the trend, we may be out of this mess sooner than we realize.
A sale through MLS, as I have often said, is usually one in which someone wants the house. This would be a very encouraging sign, but let's look at current stats. On to new business!
PENDING SALES: 5,694 (-725 from 12/16, but up 2350 from Jan 6, 08!)
Pend. SF SALES: 5,167 ( -629 from 12/16, No Jan. 08 Single Fam. Stats Avail.)
AWC Total: 908 ( -88 from Dec 16, 2008 +392 from January '08)
AWC Single Fam. 836 ( -75 from Dec 16, 2008)
Closed 12/29-Jan 4 1,367 ( + 424 from 12/16/08)
Closed Sing. Fam " " 1,213 ( + 353 from 12/16/08)
Active Listings: 52,026 (-2,461 from 12/16/08) 1st Week 2008 was 53,266
Active Single Fam. 42,827 (-2,117 from 12/16/08)
(Note the new format, it just saves me time jumping back and forth when pulling statistics from MLS. We will try it this way for a while.)
These numbers show a mixed picture. Certainly, January sales are not likely to be as good as December's given the fall in pending sales. However, they are way up from last January, (check the archive of my blog for historical stats) so expect the sales to be better than last January. There was a steep drop in listings, as usually expected, in December, which actually brought us below the inventory level at the same time frame last year. It is a shallow improvement, but a helpful improvement nonetheless given that we can probably expect a far more dynamic demand for homes coming by the end of first quarter, and have a chance to chew up some inventory. I do expect the inventory to rise a bit over the next six weeks, but, I also expect pendings and AWC contracts to start growing rapidly as well. Eventually, we are going to reach the tipping point where the number of listings entering the market slows down, and the increased buying activity starts eating up inventory. It could happen as early as March, but I am not ready to call that yet. We did see AWC contracts start to spike up as early as middle January last year, so we can watch carefully for that the next few weeks. Its interesting to go back and visit the archive and see what was happening at the same time a year ago. I remember being excited about the headlines saying AWC had reached 600 in one week, then 700 the next, as it looked like a rally-which it was. March and April were good months, and I would expect that they will be better this year.
If January and February sales can stay above 4,000, which I have every reason to believe they will, I think we can see March hitting 6000, and April maybe hitting 7000, depending on the national economy by that point. I am going to make an early prediction that we will hit 70,000 resales easily in 2009.
Mortgage rates have fallen to ridiculously low levels, as have home prices, and gas prices. Despite the economy, I expect there to be a housing rally as Americans get comfortable with the new realities. Mortgage applications have been climbing at a steady clip with the rates under 5%, and that will start hitting the sales charts eventually. I expect a good second quarter rally. First quarter will be better than last year as well, but I think a breakout may come in April.
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