Pendings Rise, Listings Fall Modestly
PENDING SALES: 6,419 ( +212 from last week)
Active W/Contingency: 996 ( +23 from last week)
CLOSED 12/1-12/8/08 943 ( -23 from last week)
ACTIVE Listings: 54,667 ( -177 from last week)
CLOSED MTD (12/14/08) 1,937
CLOSED YTD: 56,064
SINGLE FAMILY STATS
PENDING SALES: 5,796 ( +169 from last week)
Active W/Contingency: 911 ( +25 from last week)
CLOSED: 860 ( +0 from last week)
ACTIVE Listings: 44,944 ( -133 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 1,746
CLOSED YTD: 49,243
The number of pending home sales increased this past week a little unexpectedly, I suppose, and the number of active listings fell, as they would normally do, but also a little unexpectedly given the circumstances in our market. The number of weekly sales would suggest that we will top 4400 sales this month; we are slightly ahead of the pace of last month; we were at about 1817 at the same date last month, and we finished with 4449 sales. It is not a great month for sales, but it does seem that we are at the baseline, as we have weathered some horrific news over the last several months, and the resale market has not deteriorated past this point. *NEWS FLASH* The fed lowered rates again, basically by 3/4 point, and those of you with HELOCS will greatly appreciate this. An expert was saying that mortgage rates are going to trace this downward, so we may expect rates to be in the 4%'s for homebuyers. This is bound to bring some traffic into banks, as this has created a historic opportunity for inexpensive housing.
I am expecting sales to finish around 4600-4800 for the month of December; it is by no means a great month, but far better than last year, and not a bad baseline for going into the new year. January will be similarly soft, but we will start seeing an uptick in pendings, building towards a good strong March. March, for a lot of you residential agents, might start to feel like a normal market. There will still be far too many listings, but you will see a good number of closings, and buying activity.
I won't be publishing next week, but I want to wish all of you a very happy holiday season.
chris just
just land consultants
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
MLS Stats 12/1-12/7/08
INVENTORY RISES; PENDINGS FLAT
November closings revised upward to 4449 from 4300
PENDINGS: 6207 ( +32 from last week)
AWC: 973 ( +17 from last week)
CLOSED: 12/1-12/7 966 ( -265 from last week)
ACTIVE: 54,844 ( +311 from last week)
CLOSED MTD (12/7/08) 966
SINGLE FAMILY
PENDING: 5,627 (+29 from last week)
AWC: 886 ( +9 from last week)
CLOSED 12/1/-12/7 860 ( -269 from last week)
ACTIVE: 45,077 ( +260 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 860
December is starting off just about how expected-the activity over the next two months is likely to be soft. The interest rate reduction will likely bring some more people into the market, but this will be offset by the seasonal slowdown. Factors would predict that even though there is normally a drop off in listings this time of year, it will not happens as many of the listings going on the market are bank-driven, and thus may not be affected by the holiday season. Now there was some national action by banks to not start proceedings during the next few months, but I don't know that it will have a large effect on how many listings go up. Some of those listings will have been in the pipeline for months. Our biggest problem is still inventory, and we are going to suffer through that for a while. The thing about a lot of this inventory is, many homebuyers are not interested in buying a foreclosure that amounts to a fix up property, regardless the price; they are looking for a home, not a project. These properties can almost be put in a submarket, and cannot be fully classified as inventory. They are investor inventory, as many of homebuyers will not even look at them in their current condition. I am not trying to put a sunny face on the inventory numbers, but there is a dichotomy in the prices and inventory of ready to live homes and these bank-controlled properties. They have a reduced value for a reason, and their effect on pricing is staggering to the public perception of the housing market.
An article today in the republic reporting a strong dip in foreclosures in the valley may be a signal that the market is righting itself finally. I wouldn't go so far as saying that, but if lenders are working with even some owners to stay in their homes, that is that much less inventory on a bloated market. It may also cause some listings to be taken off the market, as people realize that they won't need to sell their home. The bottom line is that its good news, as couched in government intervention as it may be.
I don't expect 5000 sales in December; the first week was not great, and the end of the month bracketed by two holidays, is not going to be strong finisher. If we do significantly better than November's 4449 (revised from 4300), it will be a good showing. If listings can fall somewhere around 54000 by the end of the month, we can at least start the new year with some momentum. As I said, the bank-controlled listings may prevent a decline that would normally be a no-brainer, but we could get lucky with the fannie and freddie imposed moratorium on new foreclosures.
Expect about 4500-4700 closings in December.
November closings revised upward to 4449 from 4300
PENDINGS: 6207 ( +32 from last week)
AWC: 973 ( +17 from last week)
CLOSED: 12/1-12/7 966 ( -265 from last week)
ACTIVE: 54,844 ( +311 from last week)
CLOSED MTD (12/7/08) 966
SINGLE FAMILY
PENDING: 5,627 (+29 from last week)
AWC: 886 ( +9 from last week)
CLOSED 12/1/-12/7 860 ( -269 from last week)
ACTIVE: 45,077 ( +260 from last week)
CLOSED MTD: 860
December is starting off just about how expected-the activity over the next two months is likely to be soft. The interest rate reduction will likely bring some more people into the market, but this will be offset by the seasonal slowdown. Factors would predict that even though there is normally a drop off in listings this time of year, it will not happens as many of the listings going on the market are bank-driven, and thus may not be affected by the holiday season. Now there was some national action by banks to not start proceedings during the next few months, but I don't know that it will have a large effect on how many listings go up. Some of those listings will have been in the pipeline for months. Our biggest problem is still inventory, and we are going to suffer through that for a while. The thing about a lot of this inventory is, many homebuyers are not interested in buying a foreclosure that amounts to a fix up property, regardless the price; they are looking for a home, not a project. These properties can almost be put in a submarket, and cannot be fully classified as inventory. They are investor inventory, as many of homebuyers will not even look at them in their current condition. I am not trying to put a sunny face on the inventory numbers, but there is a dichotomy in the prices and inventory of ready to live homes and these bank-controlled properties. They have a reduced value for a reason, and their effect on pricing is staggering to the public perception of the housing market.
An article today in the republic reporting a strong dip in foreclosures in the valley may be a signal that the market is righting itself finally. I wouldn't go so far as saying that, but if lenders are working with even some owners to stay in their homes, that is that much less inventory on a bloated market. It may also cause some listings to be taken off the market, as people realize that they won't need to sell their home. The bottom line is that its good news, as couched in government intervention as it may be.
I don't expect 5000 sales in December; the first week was not great, and the end of the month bracketed by two holidays, is not going to be strong finisher. If we do significantly better than November's 4449 (revised from 4300), it will be a good showing. If listings can fall somewhere around 54000 by the end of the month, we can at least start the new year with some momentum. As I said, the bank-controlled listings may prevent a decline that would normally be a no-brainer, but we could get lucky with the fannie and freddie imposed moratorium on new foreclosures.
Expect about 4500-4700 closings in December.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
ARMLS STATS 11/24-11/30/08
NOVEMBER SALES WEAK; ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL
Pendings fall slightly, but maintain a much stronger level than 07.
PENDING SALES: 6175 ( -193 from last week)
AWC: 956 (-53 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,231 ( +135 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 54,533 ( -723 from last week)
CLOSED: November '08 4,300
SINGLE FAMILY STATS
PENDING SALES: 5598 ( -181 from last week)
AWC: 877 ( -38 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,129 ( +133 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 44,817 ( -601 from last week)
CLOSED: NOV. '08 3,943
Most of the stats for November are in-there are a few straggling closings being posted, but really not enough to change the general picture. The month finished very poorly, and because of that, we didn't reach close to the 5,000 mark. It was a holiday week to be sure, and this month had a lot of weekend days which hurts it, but this was likely the result of the credit crisis that hit in September and softened up the sales that would occur through october and november. The pendings haven't gone real soft; they are at a better level than last year, (pending sales last year this week were 3834) and that is a sign that we will continue to see sales at this level for the next few months. About the third week of January 2008, we started to see an uptick in new contracts, (AWC). This continued to build through February, and we started to see the resulting sales increase by March. I do expect a similar pattern for '09, and for January and February sales to be better than Jan or February 2008. January '08 posted only 2800 or so, and february about 3400...at current levels, we should blow right past that, and hopefully build on the pending numbers which will produce a very good march and april.
The listings number took a good hard fall this week-I think we are getting into that time of year where people don't put their homes up for sale unless absolutely necessary, and we might see inventory drop through the end of the year. It will pick up in January however, so that is but a short term bright spot.
If we can build on present pending numbers into 5 digit territory in March, we might see some real inventory reduction through the middle part of the year. I would also guess that we might see some homes come off the market as banks work to refinance some parties, or the government takes over asset-backed mortgages and recalibrates them. I would make the prediction that we will see sales in the 6000+ range for March and posssibly continue that way for several months. Given where we currently are, it wouldn't be unlikely that will happen. Mortgage rates are incredibly low, and the government finally decided to buy up some of the toxic assets after doling out money to their banker buddies first. This is going to go a long way toward unclogging homelending, and hopefully we will see that kick in come March.
We are still slugging through some tough times in the housing industry right now, as generally, new homes are also very soft, and have been since late September. Inventory in that area is cut way back, however, so while it is painful for the thinned out homebuilders who I have great empathy for, they are not doing any great damage to overall home market inventory. They have slimmed inventory substantially, and have gone to building a more affordable home which are going to sell better once there is some confidence.
Pendings fall slightly, but maintain a much stronger level than 07.
PENDING SALES: 6175 ( -193 from last week)
AWC: 956 (-53 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,231 ( +135 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 54,533 ( -723 from last week)
CLOSED: November '08 4,300
SINGLE FAMILY STATS
PENDING SALES: 5598 ( -181 from last week)
AWC: 877 ( -38 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1,129 ( +133 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 44,817 ( -601 from last week)
CLOSED: NOV. '08 3,943
Most of the stats for November are in-there are a few straggling closings being posted, but really not enough to change the general picture. The month finished very poorly, and because of that, we didn't reach close to the 5,000 mark. It was a holiday week to be sure, and this month had a lot of weekend days which hurts it, but this was likely the result of the credit crisis that hit in September and softened up the sales that would occur through october and november. The pendings haven't gone real soft; they are at a better level than last year, (pending sales last year this week were 3834) and that is a sign that we will continue to see sales at this level for the next few months. About the third week of January 2008, we started to see an uptick in new contracts, (AWC). This continued to build through February, and we started to see the resulting sales increase by March. I do expect a similar pattern for '09, and for January and February sales to be better than Jan or February 2008. January '08 posted only 2800 or so, and february about 3400...at current levels, we should blow right past that, and hopefully build on the pending numbers which will produce a very good march and april.
The listings number took a good hard fall this week-I think we are getting into that time of year where people don't put their homes up for sale unless absolutely necessary, and we might see inventory drop through the end of the year. It will pick up in January however, so that is but a short term bright spot.
If we can build on present pending numbers into 5 digit territory in March, we might see some real inventory reduction through the middle part of the year. I would also guess that we might see some homes come off the market as banks work to refinance some parties, or the government takes over asset-backed mortgages and recalibrates them. I would make the prediction that we will see sales in the 6000+ range for March and posssibly continue that way for several months. Given where we currently are, it wouldn't be unlikely that will happen. Mortgage rates are incredibly low, and the government finally decided to buy up some of the toxic assets after doling out money to their banker buddies first. This is going to go a long way toward unclogging homelending, and hopefully we will see that kick in come March.
We are still slugging through some tough times in the housing industry right now, as generally, new homes are also very soft, and have been since late September. Inventory in that area is cut way back, however, so while it is painful for the thinned out homebuilders who I have great empathy for, they are not doing any great damage to overall home market inventory. They have slimmed inventory substantially, and have gone to building a more affordable home which are going to sell better once there is some confidence.
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