Active Listings Fall
Pending Sales rising sharply
Pending: 12,839 ( +653 from last week)
Pending Sfam: 11,040 ( +571 from last week)
AWC: 6,975 ( +190 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,974 ( +163 from last week)
Closed: 1,419 ( +199 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,190 ( +99 from last week)
Active: 35,165 ( -216 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,504 ( -132 fron last week)
Closed Thru 2/21/2010: 3,926
Single Fam: 3,307
Pending sales continue to rise sharply, forecasting an excellent spring selling season in the resale market in Phoenix. Last year at this time there were 9,656 pending sales- there is a 33% increase over that number this year. February is going to be a typically light sales month, but I think we can reach 6000 sales. The last two days of the month are weekend days, so some sales may be pushed into March.
The other headline is that active listings fell, after rising fairly steadily through the winter. There is just sharper buying activity, and I think we can expect the number of sales to start falling consistently. Last year, the inventory was taken down swiftly; I don't know if it will happen that fast, as many people who would probably stay put are taking advantage of lenders willingness to allow short sales. This encourages more inventory, but I still think that the seasonal demand we experience will start slicing away at inventory for the next six months.
We are going to see just how steady this recovery why what happens over the next two quarters. So far, so good.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
ARMLS STATISTICS FOR 2/08/-2/14/10
Inventory Inches Up....
Pendings and Sales make solid gains.
Short Sales still blowing up the AWC stats.
Pending: 12,186 ( +349 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,469 ( +299 from last week)
AWC: 6,785 ( +163 from last week)
AWC SFam: 5,811 (+143 from last week)
Closed: 1,292 ( +155 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,091 ( +135 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,381 ( +192 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,636 ( +66 from last week)
February statistics continue to show solid gains in buyer activity, but listing activity remains strong. Short sales make up a solid bit of the inventory, but also buying activity, as attested to by the number of Active With contingencies. There are 5 times as many active with contingencies as there were this time last year. Short sales make up 6,053 of these AWC contracts. They are still contracts, but they do take longer to close. Short sales also account for 9,340 of the 35K+ listings as well. Short sales are really the plug in the bottle right now. As they move quicker, so will the market. February sales are likely to be mediocre, but March should be very good, as the numbers are building nicely. I even an anecdote regarding a home sale that shows there is getting to be increased buying activity. I just yesterday wrote an offer for a client on a condo that had been on the market for all of 9 days, and to our chagrine we discovered that the seller was already choosing among several highest and best offers it had received for the property. This was a home with no appliances in it....there is some demand showing, and I think it foretells for a very good spring.
There was also an article out today that I found very interesting regarding lot purchases. Good to see the buying activity among the builders.
Pendings and Sales make solid gains.
Short Sales still blowing up the AWC stats.
Pending: 12,186 ( +349 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,469 ( +299 from last week)
AWC: 6,785 ( +163 from last week)
AWC SFam: 5,811 (+143 from last week)
Closed: 1,292 ( +155 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 1,091 ( +135 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,381 ( +192 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,636 ( +66 from last week)
February statistics continue to show solid gains in buyer activity, but listing activity remains strong. Short sales make up a solid bit of the inventory, but also buying activity, as attested to by the number of Active With contingencies. There are 5 times as many active with contingencies as there were this time last year. Short sales make up 6,053 of these AWC contracts. They are still contracts, but they do take longer to close. Short sales also account for 9,340 of the 35K+ listings as well. Short sales are really the plug in the bottle right now. As they move quicker, so will the market. February sales are likely to be mediocre, but March should be very good, as the numbers are building nicely. I even an anecdote regarding a home sale that shows there is getting to be increased buying activity. I just yesterday wrote an offer for a client on a condo that had been on the market for all of 9 days, and to our chagrine we discovered that the seller was already choosing among several highest and best offers it had received for the property. This was a home with no appliances in it....there is some demand showing, and I think it foretells for a very good spring.
There was also an article out today that I found very interesting regarding lot purchases. Good to see the buying activity among the builders.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
ARMLS STATS Week of 2/10/10
Buying Activity Rising, Pendings Up Sharply
Actives Rise slightly
Spring Homebuying season about to begin?
Pending: 11,837 ( +1,054 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,170 ( +900 from last week)
AWC: 6,622 ( +296 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,668 ( +249 from last week)
Closed: 1,137 ( -921 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 956 ( -818 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,189 (+384 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,570 (+273 from last week)
The number of pendings rose sharply, indicating buyer activity is leaving the winter doldrums behind. The number is well below its 2009 highs, but certainly higher than during the same week last year (8445), and if you include the eventual pending sales of the active with contingency contracts, the buying activity is much sharper.
The amount of sales being slower is of course expected, as the first week of the month is typically much less than the last week, but is approximately 20% higher than last February of the same period. February won't be a great month for sales, but you do see sales building for March. I am expecting that we will see pending sales continue to grow toward 13,000 by the end of the month.
It is still too early to tell how strong this year's recovery will be, but the early results are encouraging. We have had growing inventory for quite a few months now, but that will likely peak out here in February. It had already started falling by this time last year. It is something that we will have to watch, as an overly strong supply of resale homes can damper the prices that we would all like to see continue to climb. I do think we will see the inventory fall through the spring at this point. The general demand looks to be higher this year, and we may not see as many homes coming on the market either. We may see short sales start to slide through the process quicker too, as banks have become better at processing these. As of now, the AWC contracts that contain short sales keeps climbing and I expect it to pass 7000. There are still many many short sales waiting to happen. That is mixed news, as you like to see real sales that occur quickly, but most of those do eventually turn into sales.
Actives Rise slightly
Spring Homebuying season about to begin?
Pending: 11,837 ( +1,054 from last week)
Pending SFam: 10,170 ( +900 from last week)
AWC: 6,622 ( +296 from last week)
AWC Sfam: 5,668 ( +249 from last week)
Closed: 1,137 ( -921 from last week)
Closed Sfam: 956 ( -818 from last week)
Active Listings: 35,189 (+384 from last week)
Active Sfam: 27,570 (+273 from last week)
The number of pendings rose sharply, indicating buyer activity is leaving the winter doldrums behind. The number is well below its 2009 highs, but certainly higher than during the same week last year (8445), and if you include the eventual pending sales of the active with contingency contracts, the buying activity is much sharper.
The amount of sales being slower is of course expected, as the first week of the month is typically much less than the last week, but is approximately 20% higher than last February of the same period. February won't be a great month for sales, but you do see sales building for March. I am expecting that we will see pending sales continue to grow toward 13,000 by the end of the month.
It is still too early to tell how strong this year's recovery will be, but the early results are encouraging. We have had growing inventory for quite a few months now, but that will likely peak out here in February. It had already started falling by this time last year. It is something that we will have to watch, as an overly strong supply of resale homes can damper the prices that we would all like to see continue to climb. I do think we will see the inventory fall through the spring at this point. The general demand looks to be higher this year, and we may not see as many homes coming on the market either. We may see short sales start to slide through the process quicker too, as banks have become better at processing these. As of now, the AWC contracts that contain short sales keeps climbing and I expect it to pass 7000. There are still many many short sales waiting to happen. That is mixed news, as you like to see real sales that occur quickly, but most of those do eventually turn into sales.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
ARMLS STATISTICS FOR 2/2/2010
January Sales: 5,820
Pendings Rose through January
A look at last January's Statistics
Pendings Rose through January
A look at last January's Statistics
Pending: 10,783
Pending SF: 9,270
AWC: 6,326
AWC SF: 5,439
CLOSED: 2,058
Closed Sf: 1,774
Active: 34,805
Active SingleFam: 27,297
Closed January: 5,820
Closed Single Fam: 4,988
This was your typical January: sales slow, inventory rises, pending sales start to show life, and everyone gets in a tizzy about how the market is about to collapse again. Don't be fooled by the short term aspects of home sales in January. January is a dormancy month, always has been, always will be. Also, you will note that pending sales have risen from the earlier part of the month, even though there was a pretty big last week of sales accounting for much of the activity. Why is that relevant? We don't have numbers from last week, but typically pending sales tend to fall after the end of the month sales report as many pendings convert to sales. Even with this normal drop, the pendings are growing from the earlier part of the month. That is a sign of demand strength as we climb out of the winter doldrums.
Lets look at last 
year's statistics:
year's statistics: We are 25% higher in pending sales, 600% higher in AWC contracts (a mixed blessing, but a contract is a contract), and down 33% in the number of listings. Closings were 20% higher as well. We are in far better shape than we were last year at this time. We can already project higher sales for February and March due to the larger number of pendings and AWC we are starting with. We won't know how well we are doing until late February, but I do expect to see pendings climbing by that time. Where inventory will be is another matter. We seemed to have hit a wall in inventory in late summer last year, but we are going into an inventory shredding portion of the year; I don't know if inventory levels will fall as far as they did last year. Prices do seem to have stabilized and even started to inch upward at this inventory level, so if inventory starts to fall significantly in the spring, we could see prices rise. We just don't know how many foreclosures are still out there. There are some, but are they going to be a significant segment of available inventory? That is the big question. I think we will shed some inventory over the summer, perhaps falling below 30,000 homes again, but I think that might our "normal" level of inventory. We will just have to watch it play out.
So, there is a lot of reason to be optimistic going into the spring, as sales should start to increase, and the inventory level is at very manageable numbers right now. They should start to decline a bit by March, and if we do, we can expect prices to start to rise in a substantial manner. This will lead to some restored confidence in the housing market, which will bring new buyers in as well. The trending is actually pretty good for us to have a decent year.
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