LISTINGS CONTINUE SHARP INCREASE
PENDINGS STABLE, NOV. SALES LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF 5,000
PENDING SALES: 6368 ( +4 from last week)
AWC: 1009 ( -14 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 1096 ( +64 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 55,256 ( +304 from last week)
Closed MTD: (through 11/23/08) 3021
Single Family Stats
PENDING SALES: 5,779 ( +15 from last week)
AWC: 915 ( -22 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 996 ( +63 from last week)
ACTIVE LISTINGS: 45,418 ( +185 from last week)
MTD CLOSINGS: 2,771
We have settled into the 4th quarter slowdown of activity, without a doubt. November 2008 is tough as we had 10 weekend days and 2 holidays out of 30, so closings will suffer in such a month. We are not going to get to 5000 sales this month by anything that I can see. We have only punched over 2000 sales in the last week once or maybe a few times this year, and I don't see why it would happen in November, where there are relatively fewer pending sales.
I don't think there is any doubt we are seeing a large number of foreclosure listings coming on the market now, as inventory continues to grow at a brisk pace. There was some expectation not too many months ago that we could fall under 50000 listings by the end of the year, but that notion has been turned on its head, despite fairly solid sales figures since then. There is just a lot of inventory to feed into the market, and we are heading into the teeth of the slowest part of the year, so I expect that inventory will not start shrinking until March. New listings tend to slow down in December, but as so many of these listings are not homeowners but lender owned, I think we may not see the traditional drop. We'll see.
On a positive note, we are likely to see sales exceed last November, and there seems to be continuing stability in the number of pendings, even though we are in a slower quarter. The drop off was not precipitous, and if we can stay around that 5000 sales per month through the end of the year and into january, we might be looking at a much brighter spring sales period.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
ARMLS STATS 11/10-11/16/08
Pending Sales: 6,364 ( +10 from last week)
AWC: 1,023 ( -8 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,032 ( +254 from last week)
Active Listings: 54,952 ( +558 from last week)
MTD Closings: 1894
Single Family Stats
Pending Sales: 5,764 ( +1 from last week)
AWC: 937
Closed Escrow: 933 (+216 from last week)
Active Listings: 45233 (+474 from last week)
Not a great week, and sales are slowing down due to either the holidays or the seasonal effects. Inventory is up sharply. There might have been a big influx of foreclosure listings this week; that's a pretty big jump in listings. The numbers point to over 4000 this month, which is okay, but I don't know that we will reach 5000. Mortgage applications were apparently up last week, and I read a report that said sales in october were over 8000+; I am not buying it, unless that includes the foreclosure sales. Its definitely not cutting into inventory, whatever it is.
We are probably at best going to maintain our current doldrums until we get our spring sales starting to show up in February.
AWC: 1,023 ( -8 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,032 ( +254 from last week)
Active Listings: 54,952 ( +558 from last week)
MTD Closings: 1894
Single Family Stats
Pending Sales: 5,764 ( +1 from last week)
AWC: 937
Closed Escrow: 933 (+216 from last week)
Active Listings: 45233 (+474 from last week)
Not a great week, and sales are slowing down due to either the holidays or the seasonal effects. Inventory is up sharply. There might have been a big influx of foreclosure listings this week; that's a pretty big jump in listings. The numbers point to over 4000 this month, which is okay, but I don't know that we will reach 5000. Mortgage applications were apparently up last week, and I read a report that said sales in october were over 8000+; I am not buying it, unless that includes the foreclosure sales. Its definitely not cutting into inventory, whatever it is.
We are probably at best going to maintain our current doldrums until we get our spring sales starting to show up in February.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
ARMLS STATS 11/3-11/9/08
I am going to do an abbreviated version today, as some other issues are taking my attention on this Holiday.
PENDING SALES: 6,353 (+268 from last week)
AWC: 1,031 (+45 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 778 ( -831 from last week)
Month To Date: 815
Active Listings: 54,394 ( +542 from last week)
Single Family Stats
PENDING: 5,763 ( +223 from last week)
AWC : 943 ( +45 from last week)
CLOSED: 718 ( -758 from last week)
Active Listings: 44,759 ( +325 from last week)
The stats are typical second week; not many closings, a slight uptick in pendings, and unfortunately a fairly sharp jump in listings. It would be nice to see that number start falling, but it seems that we still have a long way to go. There are very few closings so far this month, but 4 out of the nine days were weekends and followed the the very end of a month, so not that surprising. Hopefully that number will catch up by the end of the month. We are looking for 5,000 realistic closings this month, and 5500 if you are optimistic. Those would both hold serve for a traditionally slow month. If december and january will hold up their end, it could set us up for a very strong March, when sales typically recover.
Right now, it is hard to see how the financial collapse is really affecting sales; they are about what I would have expected following the July-September numbers-slightly below those prime month sales figures. Does that mean that we were in a bit of housing recovery and then got slammed by the turmoil? I don't really see that. The pendings have been stable, so maybe we are still at a realistic bottom for our market. If horrible news doesn't really affect us, then that tells me we are at the bottom, and that we can expect to see improvement in the next six months. I don't think before the end of the year, but I do think by March, and possibly February, we are going to see some portent of things to come. Last February had some steep rises in pending sales which took some time to manifest, but we will be looking very closely at those numbers starting in late January even.
PENDING SALES: 6,353 (+268 from last week)
AWC: 1,031 (+45 from last week)
CLOSED ESCROWS: 778 ( -831 from last week)
Month To Date: 815
Active Listings: 54,394 ( +542 from last week)
Single Family Stats
PENDING: 5,763 ( +223 from last week)
AWC : 943 ( +45 from last week)
CLOSED: 718 ( -758 from last week)
Active Listings: 44,759 ( +325 from last week)
The stats are typical second week; not many closings, a slight uptick in pendings, and unfortunately a fairly sharp jump in listings. It would be nice to see that number start falling, but it seems that we still have a long way to go. There are very few closings so far this month, but 4 out of the nine days were weekends and followed the the very end of a month, so not that surprising. Hopefully that number will catch up by the end of the month. We are looking for 5,000 realistic closings this month, and 5500 if you are optimistic. Those would both hold serve for a traditionally slow month. If december and january will hold up their end, it could set us up for a very strong March, when sales typically recover.
Right now, it is hard to see how the financial collapse is really affecting sales; they are about what I would have expected following the July-September numbers-slightly below those prime month sales figures. Does that mean that we were in a bit of housing recovery and then got slammed by the turmoil? I don't really see that. The pendings have been stable, so maybe we are still at a realistic bottom for our market. If horrible news doesn't really affect us, then that tells me we are at the bottom, and that we can expect to see improvement in the next six months. I don't think before the end of the year, but I do think by March, and possibly February, we are going to see some portent of things to come. Last February had some steep rises in pending sales which took some time to manifest, but we will be looking very closely at those numbers starting in late January even.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
October Sales Finish Strong, Respectable 5,293
October Resales finished the last week with good pace, bringing the total to 5,293. That is far off the pace of September, but given the financial crisis, and typical seasonal weakness, I was pleasantly surprised. I had expected we could actually fall short of the 5,000 sales, so crossing 5,000 substantially is good news. Extrapolated over a year, that would be 63,516 sales-not a bad year, but large numbers of listings color it poorly.
Single Family Resales in October: 4,790
Here are the weekly figures through November 2nd:
Pending Sales: 6,085 ( -430 from last week)
AWC: 986 ( -61 from last week)
Closed Escrows (10/27-11/2) 1,609 ( +643 from last week)
Year to Date: 49,620
Active Listings: 53,852 ( -291 from last week)
Single Family Stats
Pending Sales: 5,540 (-384 from last week)
AWC: 898 ( -60 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,476 ( +604 from last week)
Active Listings: 44,354 ( -226 from last week)
I am not going to go over this too much, but the last week of October was good enough to put us over 5,000 sales for the week. It is better than I expected, but not up to the September tally, which was nearly a 1000 more. Not a bad month, considering the credit crisis that hit us in late september. This level through the end of the year would be acceptable, and we could look for an upturn in March as seasonal figures improve.
There is not too much to glean from the pendings and AWC- they are down as normal after the last week of the month. Listings fell slightly but no where near I would like them to fall. It might help that Chase bank is suspending foreclosures temporarily and attempting workouts with many people-that might mean less homes going on the market. Statistically it might not be visible, but if more of the banks do that, it could cut inventory substantially.
I will comment more next week.
chris
Single Family Resales in October: 4,790
Here are the weekly figures through November 2nd:
Pending Sales: 6,085 ( -430 from last week)
AWC: 986 ( -61 from last week)
Closed Escrows (10/27-11/2) 1,609 ( +643 from last week)
Year to Date: 49,620
Active Listings: 53,852 ( -291 from last week)
Single Family Stats
Pending Sales: 5,540 (-384 from last week)
AWC: 898 ( -60 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1,476 ( +604 from last week)
Active Listings: 44,354 ( -226 from last week)
I am not going to go over this too much, but the last week of October was good enough to put us over 5,000 sales for the week. It is better than I expected, but not up to the September tally, which was nearly a 1000 more. Not a bad month, considering the credit crisis that hit us in late september. This level through the end of the year would be acceptable, and we could look for an upturn in March as seasonal figures improve.
There is not too much to glean from the pendings and AWC- they are down as normal after the last week of the month. Listings fell slightly but no where near I would like them to fall. It might help that Chase bank is suspending foreclosures temporarily and attempting workouts with many people-that might mean less homes going on the market. Statistically it might not be visible, but if more of the banks do that, it could cut inventory substantially.
I will comment more next week.
chris
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