Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Sub $200K market-Did they say "Hot"?
There is a very instructive article in the Arizona Republic that might portend what we will see happen in the coming months. Its a very good read, and what it speaks to is a theory that I have some faith in and that is that first time homebuyers are out there and have wanted to buy for a few years, and now they finally have a chance to buy reasonably and with a good interest rate. Of course, investors recognize this too, as there are some relative bargains to be had out there, but people from investors to first time homebuyers are beginning to recognize just what a value homes at that price in the valley are. When the media starts attaching words like"hot" to the housing market, it does start to change perception of what is actually happening.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
MLS stats through 2/24/08
The past week showed continuing strength in many critical numbers. There are some other stats that are less than stellar, so its not all good news, but overal we seem to be picking up steam.
Pending Sales: 5350 ( +241 from last week)
Pending Sales + AW/C: 6275 ( +286 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 726 ( +219 from last week)
Active Listings: 56104 ( -5 from last week)
Closings Month to Date (2/24/08) 2138
Overall, a pretty good week. As you can see, the pendings continue to rise, and even better, the Active with contingency are rising at an even better rate. This means that pendings that close are more than being replaced by new contracts, which points to increasing sales growth. We have also blown past 6000 pending contracts, and that is another great benchmark. This is very nice continued growth. The number that is not so great is the number of closings so far this month. It still seems very light for three weeks through the month. It could finish strong, but its still not to going to look good in the news. The number of pendings dictates that we will start to see stronger sales totals in the very immediate future, though, as most escrows do not run for more than 45 days. The active listings have fallen slightly after growing for quite a few weeks, but did not drop by a lot. Still, it would be nice if this were the peak, and they start to fall. With a seemingly good number of increasing sales, it is very possible this might be the case.
Pending Sales: 5350 ( +241 from last week)
Pending Sales + AW/C: 6275 ( +286 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 726 ( +219 from last week)
Active Listings: 56104 ( -5 from last week)
Closings Month to Date (2/24/08) 2138
Overall, a pretty good week. As you can see, the pendings continue to rise, and even better, the Active with contingency are rising at an even better rate. This means that pendings that close are more than being replaced by new contracts, which points to increasing sales growth. We have also blown past 6000 pending contracts, and that is another great benchmark. This is very nice continued growth. The number that is not so great is the number of closings so far this month. It still seems very light for three weeks through the month. It could finish strong, but its still not to going to look good in the news. The number of pendings dictates that we will start to see stronger sales totals in the very immediate future, though, as most escrows do not run for more than 45 days. The active listings have fallen slightly after growing for quite a few weeks, but did not drop by a lot. Still, it would be nice if this were the peak, and they start to fall. With a seemingly good number of increasing sales, it is very possible this might be the case.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
MLS Stats through 2/17/08
MLS stats for the prior week....
Pending Sales: 5109 ( +267 from Last Week)
Pending Sales + A W/C: 5989 ( +310 from Last Week)
Closed Escrows: 707 ( +224 from Last Week)
Active Listings: 56109 ( +111 from Last Week)
Closed Escrows in Feb. 2/17/08 1370
We are still seeing a slight uptick in active listings, which is troubling. It would be nice to see that number coming down. On the positive side, look at the nice sustained upward trend in Pending Sales and AWC contracts! We have reached almost 6000 this week, and have reached 880 new contracts in the last 10 days. That is a pace that is almost double all of the second half of 2007. The sales numbers are not really showing up yet, but I suppose that makes sense if you consider that these contracts are all mostly from the second half of January, and we might see a nice jump at the end of the month. There are two sales weeks left in February, and if we replicate last weeks closings, we would be only at 2000 or so with one week left. That is a little light considering how many escrows there are. We are literally at a 50% higher existing contracts than we were through most of the second half of last year! That is a trend we wou like to continue, but the economy is going to play a part in this. One thing that still troubles me as well is that new home sales seem to be lagging again from last year, despite favorable pricing in many of the fringe markets.
We are hoping that the effect of the stimulus package and its effect of raising limits on insurable loans will start to bleed through in the next month as well. That would be a boon to the step up buyers, giving them a chance to enjoy good interest rates. These are by in large very positive numbers, however, and I think we will be breathing a little easier if this trend continues for another month.
Pending Sales: 5109 ( +267 from Last Week)
Pending Sales + A W/C: 5989 ( +310 from Last Week)
Closed Escrows: 707 ( +224 from Last Week)
Active Listings: 56109 ( +111 from Last Week)
Closed Escrows in Feb. 2/17/08 1370
We are still seeing a slight uptick in active listings, which is troubling. It would be nice to see that number coming down. On the positive side, look at the nice sustained upward trend in Pending Sales and AWC contracts! We have reached almost 6000 this week, and have reached 880 new contracts in the last 10 days. That is a pace that is almost double all of the second half of 2007. The sales numbers are not really showing up yet, but I suppose that makes sense if you consider that these contracts are all mostly from the second half of January, and we might see a nice jump at the end of the month. There are two sales weeks left in February, and if we replicate last weeks closings, we would be only at 2000 or so with one week left. That is a little light considering how many escrows there are. We are literally at a 50% higher existing contracts than we were through most of the second half of last year! That is a trend we wou like to continue, but the economy is going to play a part in this. One thing that still troubles me as well is that new home sales seem to be lagging again from last year, despite favorable pricing in many of the fringe markets.
We are hoping that the effect of the stimulus package and its effect of raising limits on insurable loans will start to bleed through in the next month as well. That would be a boon to the step up buyers, giving them a chance to enjoy good interest rates. These are by in large very positive numbers, however, and I think we will be breathing a little easier if this trend continues for another month.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
MLS Stats Through 2/10/08
MLS STATS-2/10/08
New Active With Contingency Contracts Crosses 800!
Pending Sales: 4842 ( +590 from Last Week)
Pending Sales + AWC 5679 ( +677 from Last Week)
Closed Escrows 2.4-2.10 483 ( -471 from Last Week)
Active Listings: 55998 ( +631 from Last Week)
February Closed MTD (2.10.08): 650
Sorry this is a little bit late, I actually was out looking at land with a client, which I haven't been doing nearly enough of! Its nice to get back to doing something constructive. Nice to be writing contracts, again too. I hope the trend continues...
We passed another highwater mark for new contracts, Pending Contracts, and Pending + AWC Contracts this past week, with AWC contracts passing 800 for the first time since I started tracking these numbers last summer. This portends well for near term sales, hopefully in February, but sales through the early part of the month are still slow. The nagging problem is still the amount of Active listings, which despite our increasing pending sales, we can't seem to bite into the available listings. This means there are significant numbers of homes coming on the market, as it is likely that people are either trying to get out ahead of a mortgage reset or finding that they can't afford the home they are in. The good news is that buyers seem to be showing up. Rates and prices are both down, and I would expect the buying trend to continue to rise. Mortgage applications have been strengthening as well, and bodes well for future contracts. I just wish the active listings would start shrinking.
New Active With Contingency Contracts Crosses 800!
Pending Sales: 4842 ( +590 from Last Week)
Pending Sales + AWC 5679 ( +677 from Last Week)
Closed Escrows 2.4-2.10 483 ( -471 from Last Week)
Active Listings: 55998 ( +631 from Last Week)
February Closed MTD (2.10.08): 650
Sorry this is a little bit late, I actually was out looking at land with a client, which I haven't been doing nearly enough of! Its nice to get back to doing something constructive. Nice to be writing contracts, again too. I hope the trend continues...
We passed another highwater mark for new contracts, Pending Contracts, and Pending + AWC Contracts this past week, with AWC contracts passing 800 for the first time since I started tracking these numbers last summer. This portends well for near term sales, hopefully in February, but sales through the early part of the month are still slow. The nagging problem is still the amount of Active listings, which despite our increasing pending sales, we can't seem to bite into the available listings. This means there are significant numbers of homes coming on the market, as it is likely that people are either trying to get out ahead of a mortgage reset or finding that they can't afford the home they are in. The good news is that buyers seem to be showing up. Rates and prices are both down, and I would expect the buying trend to continue to rise. Mortgage applications have been strengthening as well, and bodes well for future contracts. I just wish the active listings would start shrinking.
Monday, February 11, 2008
NAR sees improvement in conditions, delves into household formation factor.
Realty Times has a great article here about the housing rebound expected sometime this year. What is most interesting to me is the data on the deficiency of new household formation, indicating a pent-up demand for homes that will occur once people are confident prices will not fall much further, or interest rates are too good pass up.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Reason for Optimism in the national Housing Market
This is an article that came out about Mortgage activity on MSNBC.....We might be seeing the worm turn in the market. Check it out...
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
MLS Weekly Stats Through 2/3/08
Contracts top 5000!
Statistics for the final week of January....
Pending Sales: 4252 (+ 47 from last week)
Pending + Active W/C 5002 (+69 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1/28-2/3 954 (+448 from last week)
Active Listings: 55385 ( -131 from last week)
January Closed Sales: 2866
February Closed Month to Date: 204
There was a nasty little surprise in the final sales totals for January that I could have done without, but overall, the numbers are pointing at a much better February and March. The sales numbers were down significantly, due largely it seems from a very poor final week. It makes sense now, as closings are a function of what happened 30 days earlier, and most people were preparing for the holidays. Still, it is disappointing. On a brighter note, the number of new Active with contingency contracts continues to grow, and combined with the pending sales has climbed over 5000 for the first time since I have been covering it. That is exceptionally good data. and just to add a little sweetener to that figure, the number of new listings fell slightly. One week does not a trend make, but maybe we are starting to catch up with the number of listing being put on the market. As I have preached, that is a number that needs to start falling. If we look inside the numbers, you will see that pending numbers also are on the rise, meaning new contracts are more than replacing closed escrows and cancelled escrows. This is important if we are to rebound. I don't like the January numbers, but the rest of the data going forward is stronger than its been in a long time.
Statistics for the final week of January....
Pending Sales: 4252 (+ 47 from last week)
Pending + Active W/C 5002 (+69 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 1/28-2/3 954 (+448 from last week)
Active Listings: 55385 ( -131 from last week)
January Closed Sales: 2866
February Closed Month to Date: 204
There was a nasty little surprise in the final sales totals for January that I could have done without, but overall, the numbers are pointing at a much better February and March. The sales numbers were down significantly, due largely it seems from a very poor final week. It makes sense now, as closings are a function of what happened 30 days earlier, and most people were preparing for the holidays. Still, it is disappointing. On a brighter note, the number of new Active with contingency contracts continues to grow, and combined with the pending sales has climbed over 5000 for the first time since I have been covering it. That is exceptionally good data. and just to add a little sweetener to that figure, the number of new listings fell slightly. One week does not a trend make, but maybe we are starting to catch up with the number of listing being put on the market. As I have preached, that is a number that needs to start falling. If we look inside the numbers, you will see that pending numbers also are on the rise, meaning new contracts are more than replacing closed escrows and cancelled escrows. This is important if we are to rebound. I don't like the January numbers, but the rest of the data going forward is stronger than its been in a long time.
Friday, February 1, 2008
New Home Sales in Pinal County on the Rise?
The ever-underappreciated East Valley Tribune posts this article regarding Pinal County Home Sales.... Maybe the pricing advantages of the cities in Pinal County are starting to show effect. You really can't over state what a good deal it is to buy a home in those fringe cities. People will figure it out eventually, and maybe this is a start.
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