MLS stats encompassing 1/21/08-1/27/08
We are starting to get some very interesting news in the resale housing market in January, even before rates were lowered by the FED. Here they are, with commentary to follow:
NEW AW/C CONTRACTS PASS 700 this week!
Pending Sales: 4205 ( +369 from last week)
Pending + AW/C 4933 ( +477 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 506 ( -159 from last week)
Active Listings: 55516 (+543 from last week)
Closed Month to Date (1/29/08) 2144
This has to be a reason for optimism. The number of newer contracts (AW/C) is growing at a good clip. This bodes well for February. January sales may not be particularly high, for reasons I have explained previously, but there seems to be a very solid uptick in new contracts that will likely close in February/March. For comparison sake, the usual reading for this number since last August when I started tracking these numbers was in the 400's. In fact, I don't believe us breaking through to 500 until January of this year. Now we have passed 700. This is helpful. The number of closings is down for the week, but not unexpected for a middle week. I would expect a large bunching of closings to end the month next week, as is usual. The month may only be on par with December as far as closings, but the pending numbers are showing to be much better. There are almost 5,000 homes under contract, another number we have not seen in a while. December MLS sales were 3398 , and given previous statistics in the last week, we are likely to pass or meet that number.
To temper a bit of this enthusiasm is that active listings have continued to climb off their recent lowpoint. January is a month where many homes go on the market, so maybe this is not unexpected; it is not a drastic increase, but it would be far helpful were it to fall 1% instead of rising 1%. This number needs to come down before prices will find strong footing again.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
MLS STATS 1/22/08
MLS stats encompassing 1/14/08-1/20/08
New contracts (Active with Contingency) breaches 600 for the week! (620)
Pending Sales: 3,836 ( +180 from last week)
Pending + Active W/C 4,456 ( +242 from last week)
Closed Escrow 665 ( +172 from last week)
Active Listings: 54973 ( +809 from last week)
Monthly Closed as of 1/20/08 1,503
Weekly figures paint an interesting picture. The number of active listings continues to climb in January off its lows at the beginning of the month, but not very sharply nor alarmingly. As I have written before, there is a spike in homes going on the market in January, and so far we have weathered it pretty well. This year, a lot of the homes that would have gone up in January were already on the market, so the spike isn't as noticeable. Its been with us all the while, so to speak. Here is the good news: New activity seems to be on the climb. We have breached the 600 level after reaching the 500 level in AWC contracts just a few weeks ago. We hadn't seen that level since last summer, so there is a great deal of optimism about buyers coming out of their shells. A title company rep that I get info from has been noting her realtor clients stating they they have an increase in activity since the first of the year. Its good, but very early news. Also, as the feds cut rates by 75 basis points this morning, there is some further encouragement for buyers to think about locking in their housing cost for a long time. Rates are below 6% for many people, and that means that home prices are likely to find support at a higher level than if rates were 8%. Remember, most people don't think about houses in actual price they pay, they think about it in terms of monthly cost. How much the cut drives down actual mortgage rates is debatable, as they were already very low, but the news of rate cuts makes people pay attention, and realize how low rates are. It is a good news kind of thing that drives activity.
Other positive signs for January are that pending + Active W/C are climbing for several weeks in a row, the amount of closings as well was a good number for a middle month this past week, and we seem to be matching and most likely surpassing December Sales figures. Its hard to read, how quickly these escrows will close, as many of them didn't open until after the holidays, so I am not going to get too optimistic about January Sales yet. January is typically a slow month for closed escrows for a reason, and the reason is that not many people are writing contracts for houses 12/20- 1/1. Another interesting stat that I would look at is that 12/31/07 was a monday, and given that it was a natural part of the first three weeks of this year, the sales for the first three weeks of the year actually totalled 1769, which is a much healthier number than we experienced in fourth quarter. We still have this full week, plus next week-an end of the month week being the biggest sales week-to go, which should put us in some very positive numbers. Also, February is setting up well, and if we can get the AWC to continue to climb, we might be able to exude some numbers-on-the-ground optimism for the first time in a while.
New contracts (Active with Contingency) breaches 600 for the week! (620)
Pending Sales: 3,836 ( +180 from last week)
Pending + Active W/C 4,456 ( +242 from last week)
Closed Escrow 665 ( +172 from last week)
Active Listings: 54973 ( +809 from last week)
Monthly Closed as of 1/20/08 1,503
Weekly figures paint an interesting picture. The number of active listings continues to climb in January off its lows at the beginning of the month, but not very sharply nor alarmingly. As I have written before, there is a spike in homes going on the market in January, and so far we have weathered it pretty well. This year, a lot of the homes that would have gone up in January were already on the market, so the spike isn't as noticeable. Its been with us all the while, so to speak. Here is the good news: New activity seems to be on the climb. We have breached the 600 level after reaching the 500 level in AWC contracts just a few weeks ago. We hadn't seen that level since last summer, so there is a great deal of optimism about buyers coming out of their shells. A title company rep that I get info from has been noting her realtor clients stating they they have an increase in activity since the first of the year. Its good, but very early news. Also, as the feds cut rates by 75 basis points this morning, there is some further encouragement for buyers to think about locking in their housing cost for a long time. Rates are below 6% for many people, and that means that home prices are likely to find support at a higher level than if rates were 8%. Remember, most people don't think about houses in actual price they pay, they think about it in terms of monthly cost. How much the cut drives down actual mortgage rates is debatable, as they were already very low, but the news of rate cuts makes people pay attention, and realize how low rates are. It is a good news kind of thing that drives activity.
Other positive signs for January are that pending + Active W/C are climbing for several weeks in a row, the amount of closings as well was a good number for a middle month this past week, and we seem to be matching and most likely surpassing December Sales figures. Its hard to read, how quickly these escrows will close, as many of them didn't open until after the holidays, so I am not going to get too optimistic about January Sales yet. January is typically a slow month for closed escrows for a reason, and the reason is that not many people are writing contracts for houses 12/20- 1/1. Another interesting stat that I would look at is that 12/31/07 was a monday, and given that it was a natural part of the first three weeks of this year, the sales for the first three weeks of the year actually totalled 1769, which is a much healthier number than we experienced in fourth quarter. We still have this full week, plus next week-an end of the month week being the biggest sales week-to go, which should put us in some very positive numbers. Also, February is setting up well, and if we can get the AWC to continue to climb, we might be able to exude some numbers-on-the-ground optimism for the first time in a while.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
MLS STATS 1/15/08
Here is a look at the current MLS stats. Some improvements, but the news keep stalking about the impending wave of foreclosures that will add listings to the already over-supplied market.
1/15/08
Pending Sales: 3,656 (+309 from last week)
Pending + Active W/C 4,216 (+353 from last week)
Closed Escrows 493 ( -106 from last week)
Active Listings 54,164 (+898 from Last week)
Month to Date Closings: 822
Here is what I am seeing this week: it is a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some positive signs. First, the bad. The number of active listings is climbing a bit again. Not unexpected, if you look at the traditional January pattern. Its not really spiking sharply, but I would have preferred to see it stay somewhat level. It is up a couple of thousand for the year. The other minorly bad component is the number of closed. It is down from last week, but this was a middle week, and it usually lags the first week of the year, where there is a spillover of closings from the previous month that boost the totals a bit. The last week is usually the biggest, and the first week is the second biggest. We are probably going to see modest sales in January, as closings coming out of the holiday month just can't happen fast enough to fall in January. The examination of that trend makes a nice segway to the positive data.
As you can clearly see, the number of pendings is rising sharply from previous weeks. That is key. What you can also see, if you do the math, is that the number of AWC contracts is also rising quickly-a very positive sign. If these new contracts continue at a clip replacing AWC contracts that turn into pendings, it obviously means we have sales growth. I think not everyone does the entry the same way, with many contracts going directly to "pending" in the system, so the statistical math will not be perfect, but it is still a relevant number in that it shows new contract activity in a shorter time frame than pendings. A contract can be pending for the entire length of the escrow, while most AWC entered will become pendings after 10 days, if the system is to be believed. A positive growth in either of these numbers is an excellent sign, and hopefully this trend will continue through January, as it forecasts sales in February and March, both crucial months for us.
I wanted to answer a question that I received. I don't track the sales prices for homes because it is such a long term number to analyze. It is far more effective over the course of a year, than it is to observe over a month or even a quarter. There are so many factors that could an aberration that I don't find it useful in what I am trying to accomplish here, even though it does play a substantial role. I will offer up this one bit of info about it though. If prices were to fall further in the resale market, we would get an increase in sales, but not a net gain in value sold. The prices could fall, but prices are not the only factor in play here. People are not buying for other reasons, so I guess my point is that if average asking prices fell 2%, you are not going to get a 2% gain in the (volume x price) relationship with sales. Many of the homes would continue to languish on the market, until people start to understand it is okay to buy a house again. Price drops are not always the answer. I talked to a builder about some of their vacant lots and if they had any wish to sell them, and I was told that they were not interested in selling, because they felt that no matter how reasonably they priced them at, they couldn't sell them. It would take a fire sale, and they weren't interested in that. The housing market could be looked at in a similar way, but in a macro sense. I do think that most homes, if the price is lowered substantially would sell, but in a broader picture, if all homes were lowered in price at the same time, the market as it is, could only absorb "X" amount of those homes, as currently there are only so many buyers. Thus, price cuts and reductions work for the individual, but may have a hard time moving the market as a whole. The demand line would have to shift, and that might take a little more time. A good example of this is the new home market, where prices have already adjusted downward. This has had some impact, but growth of new home sales is still flat or even negative, as there are outside factors just "I want to sell" and "I want to buy". The factors for both participants are many, including difficulty qualifying, can't sell any lower because the debt is too high, waiting for a better deal, increased competition and (therefore choices) from many sellers, paralyzing buyers who may have otherwise bought (fear of loss is a massive psychological buying trigger, especially in real estate, and when you have a myriad of choices, you don't tend to be in a hurry). There is a definite psychological aspect to our downturn, and some of those issues need to change before we see real buying strength. It might already be happening, but not quick enough for anyone in our industry.
Chris
1/15/08
Pending Sales: 3,656 (+309 from last week)
Pending + Active W/C 4,216 (+353 from last week)
Closed Escrows 493 ( -106 from last week)
Active Listings 54,164 (+898 from Last week)
Month to Date Closings: 822
Here is what I am seeing this week: it is a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some positive signs. First, the bad. The number of active listings is climbing a bit again. Not unexpected, if you look at the traditional January pattern. Its not really spiking sharply, but I would have preferred to see it stay somewhat level. It is up a couple of thousand for the year. The other minorly bad component is the number of closed. It is down from last week, but this was a middle week, and it usually lags the first week of the year, where there is a spillover of closings from the previous month that boost the totals a bit. The last week is usually the biggest, and the first week is the second biggest. We are probably going to see modest sales in January, as closings coming out of the holiday month just can't happen fast enough to fall in January. The examination of that trend makes a nice segway to the positive data.
As you can clearly see, the number of pendings is rising sharply from previous weeks. That is key. What you can also see, if you do the math, is that the number of AWC contracts is also rising quickly-a very positive sign. If these new contracts continue at a clip replacing AWC contracts that turn into pendings, it obviously means we have sales growth. I think not everyone does the entry the same way, with many contracts going directly to "pending" in the system, so the statistical math will not be perfect, but it is still a relevant number in that it shows new contract activity in a shorter time frame than pendings. A contract can be pending for the entire length of the escrow, while most AWC entered will become pendings after 10 days, if the system is to be believed. A positive growth in either of these numbers is an excellent sign, and hopefully this trend will continue through January, as it forecasts sales in February and March, both crucial months for us.
I wanted to answer a question that I received. I don't track the sales prices for homes because it is such a long term number to analyze. It is far more effective over the course of a year, than it is to observe over a month or even a quarter. There are so many factors that could an aberration that I don't find it useful in what I am trying to accomplish here, even though it does play a substantial role. I will offer up this one bit of info about it though. If prices were to fall further in the resale market, we would get an increase in sales, but not a net gain in value sold. The prices could fall, but prices are not the only factor in play here. People are not buying for other reasons, so I guess my point is that if average asking prices fell 2%, you are not going to get a 2% gain in the (volume x price) relationship with sales. Many of the homes would continue to languish on the market, until people start to understand it is okay to buy a house again. Price drops are not always the answer. I talked to a builder about some of their vacant lots and if they had any wish to sell them, and I was told that they were not interested in selling, because they felt that no matter how reasonably they priced them at, they couldn't sell them. It would take a fire sale, and they weren't interested in that. The housing market could be looked at in a similar way, but in a macro sense. I do think that most homes, if the price is lowered substantially would sell, but in a broader picture, if all homes were lowered in price at the same time, the market as it is, could only absorb "X" amount of those homes, as currently there are only so many buyers. Thus, price cuts and reductions work for the individual, but may have a hard time moving the market as a whole. The demand line would have to shift, and that might take a little more time. A good example of this is the new home market, where prices have already adjusted downward. This has had some impact, but growth of new home sales is still flat or even negative, as there are outside factors just "I want to sell" and "I want to buy". The factors for both participants are many, including difficulty qualifying, can't sell any lower because the debt is too high, waiting for a better deal, increased competition and (therefore choices) from many sellers, paralyzing buyers who may have otherwise bought (fear of loss is a massive psychological buying trigger, especially in real estate, and when you have a myriad of choices, you don't tend to be in a hurry). There is a definite psychological aspect to our downturn, and some of those issues need to change before we see real buying strength. It might already be happening, but not quick enough for anyone in our industry.
Chris
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
MLS STATS DEC. 31- Jan 6th, 2008
Pending Sales: 3347 (+222 from last week)
Pending + Active With Contingency: 3863 (+292 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 599 (N/A)
Active Listings: 53266 (+1053 from last week)
Closed Escrow Month to Date: 517
This weeks stats are not particularly exciting. Our pending sales are low coming out of December, but look to be recovering out of the holiday season as there are 517 A/WC contracts. These are essentially new contracts, and this is the highest number that I can remember in a weekly count in a while. In fact, I don't remember us being over 500 at any time since I started tracking, so maybe there will be some continued growth in escrows. On the negative side, the amount of active listings did jump over a 1000 from last week, but as I wrote in a previous post, people often put up their homes after the holidays. I looked at some past statistics, and found that there is a significant jump in listings in January, so if this is the bump up, we should be able to well absorb it. I do expect that January will be little changed from December sales. Watch the pending and ACW numbers, as they will tell us how February will be. We should see some gradual strength there.
I am hearing from Builders that December was a very bad month for many of them. It was the Holidays, of course, but there is still sentiment out there that prices will continue falling. I have some doubts about that, as prices have fallen to the pre-boom levels in many areas, and the downward price-elasticity may be close to full stretch, as you reach a point of the cost of building the home. My understanding is that there continues to be good rental pressure, and I can attest to that as it took very little effort on my part to rent out a condo that I own. We have the ingredients waiting here for a rebound: continued employment, increasing population, good weather, national attention through big events, and now once again, affordable housing. It may take several quarters, but we will be on the road to recovery at some point this year.
Pending Sales: 3347 (+222 from last week)
Pending + Active With Contingency: 3863 (+292 from last week)
Closed Escrows: 599 (N/A)
Active Listings: 53266 (+1053 from last week)
Closed Escrow Month to Date: 517
This weeks stats are not particularly exciting. Our pending sales are low coming out of December, but look to be recovering out of the holiday season as there are 517 A/WC contracts. These are essentially new contracts, and this is the highest number that I can remember in a weekly count in a while. In fact, I don't remember us being over 500 at any time since I started tracking, so maybe there will be some continued growth in escrows. On the negative side, the amount of active listings did jump over a 1000 from last week, but as I wrote in a previous post, people often put up their homes after the holidays. I looked at some past statistics, and found that there is a significant jump in listings in January, so if this is the bump up, we should be able to well absorb it. I do expect that January will be little changed from December sales. Watch the pending and ACW numbers, as they will tell us how February will be. We should see some gradual strength there.
I am hearing from Builders that December was a very bad month for many of them. It was the Holidays, of course, but there is still sentiment out there that prices will continue falling. I have some doubts about that, as prices have fallen to the pre-boom levels in many areas, and the downward price-elasticity may be close to full stretch, as you reach a point of the cost of building the home. My understanding is that there continues to be good rental pressure, and I can attest to that as it took very little effort on my part to rent out a condo that I own. We have the ingredients waiting here for a rebound: continued employment, increasing population, good weather, national attention through big events, and now once again, affordable housing. It may take several quarters, but we will be on the road to recovery at some point this year.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Happy New Year!
I failed to mention that I would not be updating for the Holidays, so I am sorry for that. I think what is actually more relevant now than those two weeks, which I find to be pretty good news, is that December finished slightly better than November in total sales, with 3428 to 3319. Not a significantly greater number, but I think it shows that we are not tanking anymore, and that this is the baseline for sales, and that we should expect to see some better numbers by February. The other encouraging number, and I am going to temper this right now, because it is early in the New year, and we might see a spike of new listings by the weekend, is the active listings numbers. If you follow my thoughts, you know that I consider this to be a crucial statistic measuring the health of the market. The number of active listings is showing a decrease of some several thousand over the course of December. That is a great sign if the trend continues. On the not so positive side, but not unexpected given the holidays, is the number of pendings is very low. That is a number that usually perks up during the course of the month, as many pendings do close over the last week, and take a large chunk out of pendings. We will watch it, but if it follows normal procedure, the pendings usually start increasing during the first few weeks of the subsequent month. The number of Active w/Contingency has stayed fairly steady through the holidays, and that is a good sign that new contracts continue to come in. As we are at the first of the year, I am just going to start fresh, and not give comparisons to the previous week.
January 2nd, 2008
Pending Sales: 3125 Trending Down
Pending + A w/C 3571 Trending Down
Closed Escrows in December: 3428 Up from November
Active Listings: 52,213 (Down from 56449 on December 2nd)
If we see active listings slide under 50,000 by the end of January, it would be an incredibly good trend, as we are entering a period (Starting in February) where inventory tends to get eaten up by demand. I don't know if that will happen, given the historical data that many people will put homes on the market in January. That is a historical fact, so this good news could be a statistical aberration if there is a flood of listings, but right now, it looks good. January is often a blah month like December, but we should start seeing the better activity show up in pendings and AWC during January. Last January there were only 4389 sales, and the two years before that were boom years, and not comparable, as they showed sales of 5266 in 2006 and well over 6000 in 2005. In 2004 there were 5118 closings, which was a very good year for sales, and a number to shoot for, but one which we will fall well short of, given current indications. Reaching last year's sales of 4389 would be a worthy goal at this point, and maybe by February, we can start talking about 5000+ sales. Those are the benchmarks that I am looking for before we can start talking market equalization.
Chris
January 2nd, 2008
Pending Sales: 3125 Trending Down
Pending + A w/C 3571 Trending Down
Closed Escrows in December: 3428 Up from November
Active Listings: 52,213 (Down from 56449 on December 2nd)
If we see active listings slide under 50,000 by the end of January, it would be an incredibly good trend, as we are entering a period (Starting in February) where inventory tends to get eaten up by demand. I don't know if that will happen, given the historical data that many people will put homes on the market in January. That is a historical fact, so this good news could be a statistical aberration if there is a flood of listings, but right now, it looks good. January is often a blah month like December, but we should start seeing the better activity show up in pendings and AWC during January. Last January there were only 4389 sales, and the two years before that were boom years, and not comparable, as they showed sales of 5266 in 2006 and well over 6000 in 2005. In 2004 there were 5118 closings, which was a very good year for sales, and a number to shoot for, but one which we will fall well short of, given current indications. Reaching last year's sales of 4389 would be a worthy goal at this point, and maybe by February, we can start talking about 5000+ sales. Those are the benchmarks that I am looking for before we can start talking market equalization.
Chris
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